Earnings Report - Macy's, Inc. is set to release its third-quarter earnings results on December 2, with analysts predicting a loss of 13 cents per share compared to a profit of 4 cents per share a year ago [1] - The consensus estimate for Macy's quarterly revenue is $4.56 billion, down from $4.74 billion a year earlier [1] - The company's board declared a regular quarterly dividend of 18.24 cents per share on October 24 [1] Stock Performance - Shares of Macy's fell 0.5% to close at $22.71 [2] Analyst Ratings - UBS analyst Jay Sole maintained a Sell rating and raised the price target from $6.5 to $7 [4] - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price target from $17 to $22 [4] - Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $16 to $19 [4] - BTIG analyst Robert Drbul initiated coverage with a Neutral rating [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $12 to $16 [4]

Core Insights - Macy's, Inc. is expected to report a quarterly loss of 13 cents per share for Q3, a decline from a profit of 4 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for Macy's quarterly revenue is $4.56 billion, down from $4.74 billion a year earlier [1] - The company's board declared a regular quarterly dividend of 18.24 cents per share on October 24 [1] Stock Performance - Shares of Macy's fell 0.5% to close at $22.71 [2] Analyst Ratings - UBS analyst Jay Sole maintained a Sell rating and raised the price target from $6.5 to $7 [4] - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price target from $17 to $22 [4] - Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $16 to $19 [4] - BTIG analyst Robert Drbul initiated coverage with a Neutral rating [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $12 to $16 [4]

Group 1 - Macy's Inc. ranks among the best performing retail stocks in 2025, with Telsey Advisory Group raising its price target to $22 from $17 while maintaining a Market Perform rating [1] - The company's second-quarter net sales reached $4.8 billion, exceeding guidance, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, also surpassing expectations [2] - Comparable sales increased across all banners, marking the strongest rise in 12 quarters, with Bluemercury achieving its 18th consecutive quarter of growth [2] Group 2 - Macy's is implementing its Bold New Chapter strategy, which includes closing 150 underperforming locations, increasing its luxury presence by 20%, and aiming for $600-750 million in asset monetization over the next three years [2] - The company operates three brands: Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, offering a wide range of merchandise including accessories, apparel, consumer goods, and home furnishings [3] - Despite the positive performance, Telsey notes that there is no short-term outlook for increased sales and profitability [3]

Earnings Reports - Dollar Tree Inc. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.08 per share on revenue of $4.70 billion [2] - CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter revenue of slightly above $1.23 billion, beating analyst estimates of approximately $1.22 billion, and adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share, exceeding estimates of 94 cents per share [2] - Macy's Inc. is anticipated to post a quarterly loss of 16 cents per share on revenue of $4.60 billion [2] - Box Inc. reported in-line earnings for the third quarter but issued fiscal 2026 EPS guidance below analyst estimates, expecting EPS to be more than $1.28 versus the $1.31 estimate [2] - Salesforce Inc. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.86 per share on revenue of $10.27 billion [2] Stock Performance - Dollar Tree shares rose 0.5% to $109.49 in after-hours trading [2] - CrowdStrike shares fell 3% to $500.96 in after-hours trading [2] - Macy's shares rose 1.8% to $23.12 in after-hours trading [2] - Box shares dipped 6.1% to $28.34 in after-hours trading [2] - Salesforce shares rose 0.6% to $236.00 in after-hours trading [2]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's, Inc. is experiencing a significant increase in its consensus price target, reflecting growing optimism about its future prospects, driven by strategic initiatives and upcoming earnings expectations [2][4][6] Group 1: Price Target and Analyst Sentiment - The consensus price target for Macy's has risen to $22, up from $18.83 in the previous quarter and $14.5 a year ago, indicating a positive outlook among analysts [2][6] - Deutsche Bank analyst Gabriella Carbone has set a more ambitious price target of $32 for Macy's stock, highlighting strong confidence in the company's performance [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Macy's is enhancing its omni-channel retail strategy and expanding its digital presence, which are crucial for improving e-commerce capabilities and supply chain efficiency [3][6] - The company's focus on improving product offerings and customer experience is expected to drive growth and investment opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - Anticipation of Macy's Q3 earnings release on December 3 is influencing analyst sentiment, with expectations that the company will surpass earnings estimates [4][6] - The stock is currently showing a bullish Cakra breakout, indicating positive momentum in the market [4]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid performance, with a projected 13.4% increase in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][25] - Retailers are under scrutiny as they report results, particularly in light of softening consumer sentiment ahead of the holiday shopping season [4] Earnings Reports - Macy's reported a surprise profit with its strongest comparable sales in over three years, but its elevated sales guidance fell short of last year's numbers, leading to a 3% drop in stock [5] - American Eagle Outfitters experienced an 11% stock surge after reporting a profit per share of $0.53, exceeding estimates, and a 6% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.36 billion [7][8] - CrowdStrike raised its full-year revenue guidance after reporting a 22% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.23 billion, despite a diluted loss per share of $0.14 [10][11][12] - Okta's revenue rose 12% to $742 million, beating estimates, but the stock fell due to market reactions [15][16] - Marvell reported earnings per share of $2.20 on revenue of $2.07 billion, but its stock slid 6% after announcing a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI [17][18] - Credo's stock surged 20% after reporting a profit of $0.44 per share and revenue of $268 million, both exceeding expectations [20][21] - MongoDB's stock soared 15% after reporting revenue of $628.3 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and a smaller-than-expected loss per share [22][23][24] Market Reactions - Despite solid earnings, market reactions have been more negative than usual, with stocks of companies that missed earnings estimates dropping by an average of 5% [25][27] - Companies that beat earnings estimates saw an average stock price increase of only 0.4%, below the five-year average of 0.9% [26] Sector-Specific Insights - Deere's stock fell 5% after its outlook for the year fell short of expectations amid uncertainty in the US farm economy [28] - Dick's Sporting Goods reported a GAAP earnings per diluted share of $2.07, missing estimates, leading to a 2% drop in stock [40] - Abercrombie & Fitch's stock surged over 18% after reporting earnings per share of $2.36, driven by strong sales at its Hollister brand [42][43] - Best Buy's stock rose 3% after beating analysts' estimates and raising its full-year outlook [46] - Kohl's stock soared 42% after reporting better-than-expected results and increasing its full-year outlook [47] - Alibaba's stock rose 4% after beating quarterly revenue estimates, driven by investments in one-hour delivery and strong growth in its cloud division [48]

Market Overview - The stock market had a rocky start in December, with major averages closing at the lows of the day, influenced by a sell-off in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [2][20] - The Dow closed down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 underperformed, down 1.25% [21][23] - The rise in bond yields, particularly an increase of eight basis points in the 10-year yield, contributed to the market's decline [24][28] Prediction Markets and Consumer Risks - Prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Poly Market and Kelshi attracting major investments, raising concerns about consumer credit risk [4][9] - The rise of these markets may lead to consumers overextending themselves financially, particularly among younger and lower-income demographics [15][16] - Lenders may face new risks as traditional underwriting models do not account for the rapid growth of online betting and prediction markets [11][14] Holiday Shopping Trends - The holiday shopping season is underway, with Cyber Monday expected to see spending exceed $14 billion [38] - Strong performance was noted in young fashion retailers and beauty specialty stores, with Macy's showing positive store traffic despite a slight decline [39][41] - Retailers managed inventory effectively during Black Friday, with solid stock levels observed, setting a positive outlook for the holiday season [48][49] Retailer Strategies - Macy's is focusing on enhancing customer service and staffing to differentiate itself from value channels, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [52] - The trend of digital shopping is growing, with consumers utilizing tools like chat GPT for comparison shopping, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [54] - Retailers are emphasizing in-store experiences and promotions to attract customers, blending online and offline shopping experiences [55]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its price target on Macy's to $7.00 from $6.50 while maintaining a Sell rating [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - UBS's recent channel checks indicated stronger-than-expected third-quarter sales trends, prompting an increase in Q3 earnings forecast by $0.18 to a loss of $0.12 per share, with an expectation of an EPS beat of $0.03 [2] - Despite the improved quarterly outlook, Macy's is likely to reaffirm its fiscal 2025 guidance due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market seems to anticipate a similar stance from Macy's management, which reduces the likelihood of significant revisions to consensus estimates or major movements in the stock's valuation multiple following the earnings report [3] - There is potential upside if Macy's provides more positive commentary on early fourth-quarter trends, but elevated bullish sentiment could turn the Q3 release into a "market-clearing event" [3] - The options market is pricing in a ±10.5% move on earnings, which is higher than Macy's historical average of 7.8%, indicating expectations for increased post-print volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is approaching its Q3 earnings report on December 3, with the stock currently experiencing a bullish Cakra breakout within its Adhishthana cycle, indicating potential positive momentum ahead [1]. Group 1: Cakra Breakout and Phases - Under the Adhishthana Principles, Macy's has developed a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which is a long-term consolidation zone with bullish implications [2]. - Macy's entered Phase 4 in January 2022 and has since broken out decisively in Phase 9, resulting in a rally of approximately 38%, with a remarkable increase of over 116% in Phase 9 alone [3]. - Phase 9 for Macy's will continue until January 20, 2026, after which it will transition into Phase 10, where the likelihood of peak formation increases [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment - With strong momentum in Phase 9 and the upcoming Q3 earnings, volatility is anticipated, but it is not expected to negatively impact the bullish structure [7]. - Investors holding Macy's stock have strong reasons to maintain their positions, as the breakout from the Cakra pattern supports a sustained bullish outlook, with any near-term dips likely being structural pauses rather than trend reversals [8]. - Macy's remains firmly within the ascent leg of the Himalayan Formation, with Phase 9 still having time to unfold before entering Phase 10, which may signal the first signs of an eventual peak [10].

Core Viewpoint - Macy's, Inc. is expected to report a significant loss in its upcoming quarterly earnings, reflecting ongoing challenges in the competitive retail market [2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict a loss of $0.14 per share for the quarter ending October 2025, representing a 450% decline compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - Revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be approximately $4.53 billion, which indicates a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [3][5]. Market Valuation - The company's price-to-sales ratio is 0.26, suggesting a relatively low market valuation in relation to its sales [3]. - Macy's enterprise value to sales ratio stands at approximately 0.47, reflecting the company's total valuation in relation to its revenue [4]. - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 7.63, indicating a moderate valuation based on cash flow generation [4]. Financial Stability - Macy's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.23, indicating a higher level of debt compared to equity [4]. - The current ratio of 1.38 suggests that Macy's maintains a good level of liquidity to cover its short-term liabilities [4].