新华社纽约11月30日电 记者手记｜美国"黑五"消费难掩经济隐忧 根据美国软件公司赛富时的数据，美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"的消费总额比去年增加3%，低于全球 当日线上销售6%的增幅。与此同时，由于价格上涨阻碍了线上需求，与去年相比，消费者购买的商品 反而减少了。 新华社记者刘亚南 经历美国关税政策频繁扰动，被视为美国消费"晴雨表"的感恩节假日零售数据备受关注。今年"黑色星 期五"购物日，记者在美国见证了经济下行压力下更挑剔的消费者、更昂贵的商品以及利润空间不断被 压缩的零售商。 近期，美国就业市场降温、高物价压力持续等因素严重打压消费者信心。美国劳工部日前公布数据显 示，美国9月失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。过去一周，与消费相关的负面消息接踵而 至。美国联邦储备委员会"褐皮书"显示，美国消费支出整体进一步下滑，关税导致制造业和零售业成本 普遍承压；世界大型企业研究会调查数据显示，美国11月消费者信心指数降至今年4月以来最低水平。 美国包装食品品牌卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-里维拉表示，进入圣诞季，美国消费者 情绪处于几十年来"最糟糕的状态之一"。 更加精打细算，是美国消费 ...

Key Points New York City-based Cooper Creek Partners Management sold nearly 6.7 million shares of Macy's in the third quarter. In light of the sales, the value of the overall position fell by about $73 million quarter to quarter. Cooper Creek still holds 740,517 shares of Macy's valued at $13.3 million as of quarter-end. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › On November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC disclosed a major sale of Macy's shares in the third quarter, acco ...

This fund just slashed its Macy’s stake despite the retailer beating earnings and accelerating its turnaround—here’s what long-term investors should take away.On November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC disclosed a major sale of Macy's shares in the third quarter, according to a new SEC filing.What HappenedAccording to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing published November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC sold nearly 6.7 million shares of Macy's (M 0.31%) in the third quarter, ...

Market Overview - U.S. major indices have underperformed in November, particularly the Nasdaq, while Europe's Stoxx 600 has achieved its fifth consecutive positive month [1] - Concerns over AI valuations and spending plans have negatively impacted tech stocks globally [1] Santa Rally Potential - Historical data shows that the FTSE 100 has delivered positive returns in December 24 out of the last 30 years, suggesting a potential for a Santa Rally [2] - Markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December, which could boost market sentiment [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to cut rates, which is viewed positively as their policy is considered to be in a "good place" [3] - There is an 83% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in December, which could influence market movements [3][4] Market Risks - Concerns remain regarding the pace of AI hyperscaler spending, with warnings from the ECB about stretched U.S. tech valuations due to "fear of missing out" among investors [5] - The potential for "sharp correlated price adjustments" in AI-driven stocks is highlighted as a key risk [5] Cryptocurrency Outlook - Bitcoin is predicted to continue its decline as newer investors sell off their holdings, with long-term holders also potentially selling due to the upcoming "halving" event [7] - The pressure on Bitcoin may persist into year-end, affecting overall market sentiment [7] Upcoming Global Events - Key global events in December include the Federal Reserve policy decision on December 10, the Swiss National Bank policy decision on December 11, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank policy decisions on December 18 [8]

Core Insights - Cyber Monday, occurring on December 1, 2025, has evolved into a significant online shopping event, extending into a full "Cyber Week" with major retailers offering substantial discounts [1][3][12] Retailer Promotions - Amazon's Cyber Monday sale runs from November 29 to December 1, featuring discounts of up to 50% on tech products, 40% on select floorcare, and 50% on kitchen essentials [6][13] - Best Buy's event from November 30 to December 1 highlights electronics, with discounts reaching 63% on Chromebooks and 55% on TVs [8][13] - Target's sale, also from November 30 to December 1, includes up to 50% off clothing and shoes, and significant discounts on tech products [8][13] - Walmart's online sale on December 1 offers early access for Walmart+ members, with discounts on furniture, sports gear, and toys [9][13] - Macy's online-only sale from November 30 to December 1 features discounts of 60-70% on bedding and 50-60% on handbags and shoes [10][13] Historical Context - The term "Cyber Monday" was first coined by the National Retail Federation in 2005, recognizing the increase in online shopping as consumers returned to work after Thanksgiving [3][12]

Market Overview - The market's uptick this week was expected due to seasonal optimism around Thanksgiving, leading to lighter trading volume and reduced volatility [1] - Increased consumer spending data in October suggests a record holiday shopping season ahead, particularly benefiting retail stocks [1] Retail Stocks Highlights - **Macy's (M)**: Stock price at $22 with a Zacks Rank of 2 (BUY). The stock is at a 52-week high, driven by strong earnings beats, raised guidance, and strategic shifts towards online presence [3][4] - Macy's "Reimagine 125" initiative has modernized stores, resulting in the strongest comparable sales growth in three years. The stock is attractive for income-focused portfolios with a 3.25% annual dividend yield [5] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Stock price at $232 with a Zacks Rank of 2 (BUY). Expected to set a quarterly revenue record of $211.23 billion in Q4, Amazon's growth and diversification are significant, with a forward P/E multiple approaching the S&P 500 benchmark [6][7] - **Crocs (CROX)**: Stock price around $85 with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). FY25 EPS estimates revised up to $12.13, indicating a positive trend. The stock's 7X forward earnings multiple suggests it is undervalued [8][9] - **Lululemon (LULU)**: Currently trades at a more reasonable valuation after a 50% drop from its one-year peak, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold). Expected to post annual EPS of $12 or more in FY26 and FY27, supported by a loyal customer base [10] Retail Sector Outlook - Retail sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time during this holiday shopping season, positioning the retail sector as a hot spot for investors [12]

Core Insights - Macy's Inc. is facing significant challenges in the retail environment, with analysts projecting a quarterly loss of $0.14 per share and a revenue decline of 3.3% year-over-year [2][4][6] - Despite these challenges, Macy's stock has shown resilience, closing at $22.43, a 2.65% increase from the previous day, outperforming major market indexes [3][6] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal a loss of $0.14 per share, a 450% decline compared to the previous year [2][4] - Revenue for the quarter is projected to be $4.59 billion, reflecting a 3.3% decrease from the same quarter last year [2][4][6] Stock Performance - Macy's stock is currently priced at $22.39, with a slight decrease of 0.20% on the day, having traded between $21.70 and $22.65 [5] - Over the past year, the stock has reached a high of $22.93 and a low of $9.76, with a market capitalization of approximately $6.01 billion [5]

Core Insights - The retail landscape during Black Friday has shifted, with a notable change in consumer behavior and store traffic patterns compared to previous years [1][4] - Macy's has introduced 40% new products, including popular items like La Boo-Boo dolls and various new cosmetics brands, indicating a focus on novelty and brand engagement [2][3] - Retail analysts express cautious optimism for the holiday season, highlighting a bifurcated consumer market where high-end consumers are spending while lower-income consumers face pressure [5][6] Retail Trends - The level of promotions this year is similar to last year, suggesting a consistent approach to sales strategies among retailers [4] - Retailers are focusing on maintaining competitive pricing for entry-level items while consumers are increasingly seeking value and promotions [6] - Outerwear and apparel are expected to drive sales, with specific products like aura rings and mass metal glasses gaining popularity [8] Market Dynamics - The luxury retail sector is experiencing significant changes, with brands like Prada expanding their physical presence and potential mergers being discussed in the industry [9][11] - The trend towards smaller store footprints is evident, with a shift towards online engagement and in-store pickup options [13] - The future of shopping malls is anticipated to be more curated, featuring special brands and enhanced food and activity offerings to attract consumers [15] Company Strategies - Companies like Steve Madden are expected to benefit from acquisitions that will enhance sales and margins in the coming years [16]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid performance, with 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting results and an expected 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][3] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Analysts had initially expected a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for Q3, indicating a significant upward revision in expectations as the quarter progressed [3] - If the anticipated 13.4% earnings growth holds, it represents an acceleration from the 12% growth rate reported in Q2 [2] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Recent reports from Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Burlington Stores indicate that softening consumer sentiment is affecting purchasing decisions [4] - Upcoming earnings reports from retailers such as Macy's, Dollar Tree, American Eagle Outfitters, and GameStop will provide further insights into consumer behavior as the holiday shopping season approaches [4] Group 3: Upcoming Reports - The first week of December will feature earnings reports from companies including Salesforce, CrowdStrike, MongoDB, Marvell, Okta, C3.ai, and Snowflake, which are expected to highlight ongoing trends in corporate performance [5]

Group 1 - Telsey Advisory Group raised the target price for Macy's from $17 to $22 [1] - The rating for Macy's remains "in line with the market" [1]