Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's $5 meal package has significantly boosted same-store sales, and the introduction of the McValue menu is expected to continue this positive trend. As external conditions normalize, same-store performance in regions outside the U.S. is gradually recovering, with global same-store sales expected to return to positive growth in 2025, driving revenue recovery [4][5]. - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $6.39 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3%. The operating profit was $2.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit was $2.02 billion, down 1.1% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a quarterly dividend of $1.77 per share and a total annual dividend payout of $4.9 billion, representing 3.5% of the total market capitalization of $221.1 billion [4][5]. - Same-store sales showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with U.S. same-store sales down 1.4%, while international markets showed positive growth. Overall global same-store sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion strategy, with a target of adding 2,200 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 45,277 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of $25.92 billion, a year-over-year growth of 1.7%. The net profit was $8.22 billion, a decline of 2.9% year-over-year [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $27.26 billion, $28.84 billion, and $30.49 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [5][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are $8.70 billion, $9.29 billion, and $9.95 billion, with growth rates of 5.8%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [5][6]. - The company maintains a healthy operating profit margin, projected to be between 45% and 50% for 2025 [4][5].

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that a specific dividend stock has more than doubled its dividend per share, which may surprise passive income investors [1] Company Analysis - The stock in question has shown significant growth in its dividend distribution, indicating strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Market Implications - The increase in dividend per share could attract more investors looking for passive income opportunities, potentially driving up the stock price [1]

Core Insights - The 2024 Q4 earnings cycle is showing signs of slowing down, with most S&P 500 companies having reported positive earnings growth and favorable commentary [1] McDonald's (MCD) - MCD reported EPS that met consensus estimates but sales of $6.4 billion fell 0.3% year-over-year, with EPS down 4% year-over-year [3][4] - U.S. comparable sales decreased by 2% year-over-year, indicating consumer caution due to ongoing menu price increases [4] - Global comparable sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year, marking a positive shift after a series of negative surprises [5] Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) - Analysts expect CAKE to report an EPS of $0.92, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, with sales anticipated to grow by 4% year-over-year [6] - Comparable restaurant sales increased by 1.4% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations [7] - CEO David Everton highlighted market share capture and improvements in labor productivity and guest satisfaction [9] Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) - TXRH is projected to see a significant 53% EPS growth alongside a 21% increase in sales, although analyst revisions have remained stagnant [10] - The company reported an 8.5% year-over-year growth in comparable sales, with plans for further expansion through 2025 [13] - TXRH's strong momentum has led to a bullish outlook from analysts, contributing to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [13] Summary of Expectations - Both CAKE and TXRH are expected to report favorable comparable store sales, which will be crucial in assessing their growth [16]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is focusing on value meals in response to inflation and competition in the quick-service restaurant sector, aiming to recover from recent challenges and drive customer traffic [1][9][13]. Financial Performance - McDonald's Q4 results were mixed, with U.S. same-store sales declining by 1.4% due to an E.coli scare, but international markets performed better with a 4.1% increase in comparable-store sales [4][5][6]. - Overall global same-store sales rose by 0.4%, surpassing analyst expectations of a 1% decline, while total revenue was $6.39 billion, slightly below the $6.44 billion consensus [6]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 4% to $2.83, meeting analyst expectations [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest between $3 billion and $3.2 billion in new unit development, aiming to open approximately 2,200 restaurants by 2025, with a significant focus on China [7]. - McDonald's is launching the McValue platform in January and enhancing value programs internationally, which have shown positive customer reception [9][13]. - The company is also focusing on digital orders and expanding its loyalty program, which had 175 million active members by the end of 2024 [14]. Market Positioning - McDonald's has historically gained market share during pricing wars, and its current strategy of offering value meals is expected to attract customers and drive additional purchases [13]. - The company anticipates a full sales recovery from the E.coli incidents by Q2 and expects improved margins compared to 2024 levels [11]. Long-term Outlook - McDonald's is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to its iconic brand, growth potential in store count, and strategies to enhance customer engagement through digital and loyalty initiatives [15].

Group 1 - McDonald's Corporation is expected to benefit from the recovery following the E. coli incident and the traction gained by its recently launched McValue platform [1] - International sales are anticipated to improve due to the easing of boycotts in the Middle East after recent peace developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Q4 2024 earnings report showed mixed results, with adjusted EPS meeting expectations but net revenues falling short, yet stock rose due to strong international sales and positive sentiment [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 was $2.83, meeting analysts' expectations [1] - Quarterly net revenues were $6.388 billion, below the consensus estimate of $6.477 billion [1] - Stock closed at $307.60 on February 12, 2024, a decline of 0.84% from the previous close [3] - Market capitalization stands at $220.43 billion [3] Stock Outlook - Analysts set a 12-month average price target of $327.96, indicating a potential upside of 6.62% from the last closing price [4] - Price target range is from $290 to $360, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" [4] Strategic Initiatives - CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted the "Accelerating the Arches" strategy focusing on value offerings, menu innovation, and culturally relevant marketing [2] - The company is targeting low-income consumers through initiatives like the McValue menu, which has been positively received [5] Market Sentiment - Strategists maintain a bullish sentiment on McDonald's growth prospects, citing strong performance in the value segment and expansion plans as key drivers [5] - Despite concerns about potential challenges in the US market and cash flow issues, the consensus remains positive for continued sales growth and market share expansion [8]

Group 1 - McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) stock has increased approximately 15% over the past six months, driven by optimism regarding a recovery in business growth [1] - The technical indicators for McDonald's stock are currently strong, suggesting potential for continued performance improvement [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality technical analysis and the commitment to excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect in investment research [1]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is facing challenges with its financial performance and customer base, leading to mixed opinions on whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock [2][14][16] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, same-store sales increased by only 0.4% globally, with a concerning decline of 1.4% in the U.S. market [4] - Management indicated that core customers are experiencing financial strain, which is impacting sales performance [5][10] Valuation Analysis - The price-to-sales ratio is above its five-year average, while the price-to-earnings ratio is slightly below its long-term average, suggesting the stock is not a deep value [6] - The stock price is currently within 5% of its all-time high, reached in mid-2024, indicating that it is not on sale [7] Investment Perspectives - The case for selling McDonald's stock is strong due to current underperformance and a lack of upside potential [2][3] - Holding the stock may be reasonable for long-term investors, as it has a history of dividend increases and a current yield of 2.4% [12][13] - Buying the stock is considered risky at this time, given the financial constraints faced by core customers and the potential for better buying opportunities in the future [15][17]

Group 1 - Consumer spending in the US has started 2025 with a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, indicating a healthy growth rate [1] - The full consumer spending data will be released by the Census Bureau, providing further insights into the economic landscape [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing macro drivers of various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - It highlights the role of empirical data in creating evidence-based narratives to effectively communicate financial information [1]