Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, representing an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [5] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, a 22% increase from the previous year, reflecting consistent earnings power growth [5][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [6][21] - Revenue from private credit grew over 60% in the third quarter, driven by strong demand in fund finance and securitization [11] - Moody's Analytics (MA) delivered a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with an 11% increase in decision solutions [12][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with projected refunding needs over the next four years exceeding $5 trillion, a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities increased by over 20% in both the U.S. and EMEA regions, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [10] - The number of private credit-related deals grew almost 70% in the third quarter, highlighting the sector's growth potential [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, including acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [19] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Salesforce, are being leveraged to enhance customer integration and drive durable growth [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [60] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for credit insights, particularly in the private credit market amid rising concerns about credit health [70] - Management acknowledged risks related to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential government shutdown impacts on market conditions [28] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, implying approximately 17% growth at the midpoint [37] - Free cash flow is expected to be around $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management clarified that AI is being embedded into various workflow solutions and that they have developed over 50 domain-specific agents leveraging proprietary data [41] Question: Impact of record issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [46] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted the unique data sets used in KYC solutions, including Orbis and AI-curated news, which provide a comprehensive view of business relationships [50] Question: Differences in refi walls portrayal - Management explained that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities that remain healthy [52] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management indicated more tailwinds than headwinds for 2026, with expectations for continued strong issuance driven by M&A activity and infrastructure investments [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [7] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year, and more than doubling from three years ago [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ratings business (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [8] - Transaction revenue in MIS rose 14%, with corporate finance transaction revenue increasing by 13% [28][30] - Moody's Analytics (MA) saw a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with ARR reaching nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% from last year [15][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with demand for debt financing strong in private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, and infrastructure development [9][10] - Refunding needs over the next four years are projected to exceed $5 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025 [11] - Spec grade maturities in the U.S. increased by over 20%, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable recurring revenue businesses and simplifying its product suite, as evidenced by the sale of its Learning Solutions business [17] - The company is expanding its footprint in emerging markets, acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [23][24] - The strategy includes leveraging AI capabilities to enhance customer workflows and embedding data into partner ecosystems, such as Salesforce [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [78] - The company anticipates continued growth in private credit and infrastructure investments, particularly in digital infrastructure and data centers [82] - Risks include ongoing tariff negotiations and the potential impact of a prolonged government shutdown on market conditions [37] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][27] - The company expects free cash flow to reach approximately $2.5 billion and plans to return over 85% of free cash flow to shareholders [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in Analytics Business - Management indicated that AI is an opportunity for growth, with plans to embed AI into various workflow solutions and develop agentic solutions [51][52][55] Question: Impact of Record Issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more common in spec grade than investment grade, with healthy maturity walls expected [58][60] Question: Proprietary Data in KYC Business - Management highlighted unique datasets in KYC solutions, including Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which provide a comprehensive view for customers [62][66] Question: Refi Walls and Market Conditions - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec grade, while overall maturities remain healthy, with a positive outlook for refinancing [68][70] Question: Issuance Expectations for 2026 - Management anticipates more tailwinds than headwinds for issuance in 2026, driven by tight spreads and a robust M&A environment [76][78] Question: Growth in Moody's Analytics - Management confirmed that MA growth is tracking as expected, with a strong pipeline for Q4 and a focus on high single-digit growth [86][88] Question: Health of Private Credit Market - Management acknowledged concerns in the private credit market but emphasized the importance of independent credit assessments and the potential for demand for insights [91][94]

Core Insights - Moody's reported a Q3 revenue increase of 11% to $2.01 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.96 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.92, higher than the anticipated $3.70 by analysts [1] - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, up from the previous forecast of $13.50 to $14.00, while analysts expected $14.14 [1] - Moody's expects revenue growth in the high single-digit percentage range, an improvement from the prior expectation of mid single-digit percentage growth [1] - The board approved an additional $4 billion stock repurchase authorization [1]

Group 1 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes and purchase them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, with a long-term holding strategy [1] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperforming stocks while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - The company plans to publish articles about selected companies approximately three times a week, including extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates [1]

Core Insights - Moody's reported quarterly earnings of $3.92 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.7 per share, and showing an increase from $3.21 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +5.95% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.01 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.15% and up from $1.81 billion year-over-year [2] - Moody's has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Financial Performance - The earnings surprise of +5.95% for the recent quarter follows a previous surprise of +3.49% when actual earnings were $3.56 per share against an expectation of $3.44 [1] - Over the last four quarters, Moody's has topped consensus revenue estimates three times, showcasing its ability to outperform market expectations [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Moody's shares have increased by approximately 2.4% since the beginning of the year, in contrast to the S&P 500's gain of 14.5%, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for future stock movements, with current consensus EPS estimates at $3.03 for the coming quarter and $14.09 for the current fiscal year [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Moody's belongs, is currently ranked in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Core Insights - U.S. banks' loans to private credit providers have reached nearly $300 billion, indicating a significant increase in lending activity in this sector [1] Group 1: Loan Growth - The surge in loans to private credit providers highlights a growing trend among U.S. banks to engage more with alternative lending sources [1] - Moody's report suggests that this increase in lending could pose risks, particularly for smaller lenders who may not have the same level of capital or risk management capabilities [1] Group 2: Risk Assessment - The ratings agency warns that smaller lenders could face heightened risks due to their exposure to the growing private credit market [1]

Financial Highlights - Adjusted Diluted EPS grew by 22% due to record revenue performance[9] - Quarterly revenue surpassed $2 billion, up 11% year-over-year[12] - Adjusted Operating Margin expanded 510bps to 529%[12] - MCO revenue growth increased to be in the high-single-digit percent range[12] - Adjusted Diluted EPS is up 17% at the midpoint, for a range of $1450 to $1475[12] - Free Cash Flow is approximately $25 billion[43] Moody's Investors Service (MIS) - MIS revenue reached a record high of $11 billion[9] - MIS rated issuance guidance increased to the mid-single-digit percent range[40] - Refinancing walls approximately doubled since 2018, reaching $52 trillion in September 2025[13, 14] - Year-over-year increase of 6% since previous study; stock of forward maturities remains robust, exceeding $5 trillion funding deep currents[15] - Adjusted Operating Margin increased 560 bps to 652%[26] Moody's Analytics (MA) - MA delivered 400bps of margin expansion in Q3[16] - ARR grew by 8% versus the prior year, reaching $34 billion[12] - Decision Solutions ARR is up 10%[9] - Recurring revenue accounts for 96% of total revenue[17]

Core Viewpoint - The New York credit-ratings and research company has raised its full-year outlook following an increase in profit and revenue during the third quarter [1] Financial Performance - The company reported higher profit and revenue in the third quarter, which contributed to the positive revision of its full-year outlook [1]

Core Insights - Moody's raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts due to strong performance in its analytics unit and increased bond issuance activity [1] Group 1 - The analytics unit of Moody's is experiencing strong momentum, contributing positively to the company's financial outlook [1] - Robust bond issuance activity is a key factor driving the improved revenue and profit forecasts for Moody's [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to prevent access issues [1] - It highlights that users with ad-blockers may face restrictions when trying to access content [1]