Core Insights - The podcast revisits a five-stock sampler from February 10, 2016, titled "Five Stocks to Feed the Bear," to evaluate performance over the past decade against the S&P 500, which returned 274.3% during that period [1][6][32] - The analysis includes lessons learned from the performance of these stocks, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing and the impact of market conditions on stock performance [3][34] Stock Performance Summary Stock 1: Carter's (Ticker: CRI) - Carter's stock price decreased from $85.04 to $38.07, resulting in a 55% decline, significantly underperforming the market [8][9] - The decline is attributed to a decreasing U.S. birth rate and challenges in the apparel retail sector, including increased costs due to tariffs and declining sales [8][9] Stock 2: IPG Photonics (Ticker: IPGP) - IPG Photonics' stock rose from $81.59 to $113.26, marking a 39% increase, but still lagging behind the market [12][13] - The company faced four consecutive years of declining revenue, which negatively impacted investor sentiment despite recent signs of recovery [12][13] Stock 3: Ellie Mae (Ticker: ELLI) - Ellie Mae was acquired for $99 per share in 2019, resulting in a 65% gain from the initial cost basis of $59.78, outperforming the market during its trading period [18][19] - The acquisition by Thoma Bravo and subsequent sale to Intercontinental Exchange highlighted the potential missed opportunities for early investors [19][20] Stock 4: Planet Fitness (Ticker: PLNT) - Planet Fitness' stock surged from $13.86 to $92.72, achieving a remarkable 569% increase, significantly outperforming the market [23][32] - The company demonstrated consistent revenue growth and resilience, even during the pandemic, which contributed to its strong performance [23][24] Stock 5: Mercado Libre - Mercado Libre's stock skyrocketed from $87.71 to $2,041.50, representing a staggering 2,227.6% increase, far exceeding the market return [26][32] - The company's growth was driven by its dominant position in the Latin American e-commerce market and the increasing shift of retail to online platforms [26][29] Overall Performance - The average return of the five stocks was 568.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 274.3% return over the same period [32] - The performance of Mercado Libre was pivotal in achieving this average, illustrating the power of a few high-performing stocks to drive overall portfolio success [31][32]

Core Insights - International stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in 2025 after a decade of U.S. dominance, driven by currency fluctuations and a changing geopolitical environment [1] - Three international stocks are highlighted as potential strong performers in 2026: Restaurant Brands, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre [1] Group 1: Restaurant Brands (QSR) - Restaurant Brands was formed from a merger between Tim Horton's and Burger King, and has since acquired Popeye's and Firehouse Subs [1] - The company has shown slight weakness in recent quarters but is expected to benefit from a trade-down trend in dining due to inflation, potentially increasing foot traffic and margins [1] - The stock is considered a defensive growth option, currently trading at a discount to historical levels despite year-over-year revenue and earnings growth [1] Group 2: Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba is a leading global growth stock with significant potential, driven by its core e-commerce business and artificial intelligence initiatives [1] - The company reported an 8% year-over-year revenue growth, with over 20% growth in its international e-commerce segment, which is a high-margin area [1] - Free cash flow margins reached 20% due to cost discipline, indicating strong financial health and future growth prospects [1] Group 3: MercadoLibre (MELI) - MercadoLibre is a major e-commerce and fintech player in Latin and South America, providing exposure to approximately $1 trillion in GDP [1] - The company achieved 35% year-over-year growth in its e-commerce business, supported by a 40% growth in its Mercado Pago segment [1] - With around $5 billion in annual free cash flow and world-class margins of about 12%, MercadoLibre is viewed as a strong investment opportunity [1]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre is focusing on logistics and fintech in Latin America, achieving a 39% revenue growth and generating $2.2 billion in free cash flow, while Alibaba is investing heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure, resulting in a 5% revenue growth but a significant net income drop of 53% [1] Financial Performance - MercadoLibre reported Q3 2025 revenue of $7.41 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, with total payment volume reaching $71.2 billion, up 41% [1] - Alibaba's Q2 2026 revenue was $34.81 billion, only a 5% increase, with a net income decline of 53% and free cash flow turning negative at $3.1 billion [1] Strategic Focus - MercadoLibre is expanding its logistics network and investing in free shipping and social commerce initiatives, while maintaining positive cash flow [1] - Alibaba is prioritizing AI infrastructure and quick commerce, framing its current profitability challenges as investments for future growth [1] Market Positioning - MercadoLibre holds a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 48.5 and a forward multiple of 29.6, indicating strong investor confidence in its market share growth potential [1] - Alibaba trades at 20.5x trailing earnings and 17.2x forward earnings, which appears cheap but is overshadowed by a 51.8% year-over-year earnings decline [1] Risk-Reward Profiles - MercadoLibre's strategy is seen as less risky due to its positive cash flow and growth potential in a less penetrated e-commerce market [1] - Alibaba's investment thesis hinges on the stabilization of China's regulatory environment and the success of its AI investments, presenting a higher risk profile [1]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's logistics network is evolving from a cost burden to a driver of operating leverage, with improved shipping efficiency and reduced per-unit delivery costs in Brazil and record-low fulfillment costs in Mexico, indicating a shift towards profitability [1][10] Logistics Efficiency - Structural efficiency gains are being realized through robotics deployment and optimized warehouse workflows, which enhance productivity and lower long-term operating costs [2] - The logistics network successfully managed a 28% year-over-year increase in shipments in Q3 without service disruptions, showcasing improved capacity utilization typical of scaled platforms [2][10] Delivery Speed and Order Density - Faster delivery speeds, including greater penetration of same- and next-day shipping, are enhancing conversion rates and buyer engagement, which in turn increases order density [3] - Rising transaction volumes allow fixed logistics costs to be spread over a larger base, while companywide expenses become progressively diluted [3] Future Outlook - The logistics investments are entering a return phase, with previous margin pressures now generating structural efficiency gains; sustained order growth could establish the delivery network as a long-term competitive advantage [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2026 revenues of $37.27 billion, reflecting approximately 30% year-over-year growth [4] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces increasing competitive pressure in logistics from Sea Limited and JD.com, both of which are enhancing their logistics capabilities [5] - Sea Limited is building a localized delivery network with SPX Express, improving customer adoption and seller loyalty through fast and low-cost shipping [6] - JD.com is applying pressure with its fully integrated supply-chain network, offering reliable service and competitive pricing, thus emerging as a premium logistics competitor [7] Share Price and Valuation - MercadoLibre's shares have declined 15.9% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [8] - The current forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for MercadoLibre is 31.42X, which is higher than the industry average of 21.06X, indicating that shares may be overvalued [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is $59.48 per share, reflecting a 49.45% year-over-year increase [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights several hyper-growth tech stocks that have shown strong performance in recent years, suggesting they could be valuable additions to investment portfolios. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia has been a leader in the semiconductor industry, particularly benefiting from the AI boom, with significant investments from major tech companies in AI infrastructure [3] - The company is set to release a new chip, the Rubin, designed for AI inference processes, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [5] - Nvidia's current forward P/E ratio is 24.3, significantly lower than its five-year average of 37.4, indicating an appealing valuation [6] Group 2: Palantir Technologies - Palantir specializes in AI-driven data mining and analytics, with a notable customer base including the U.S. government, and reported a 70% year-over-year revenue increase in its fourth quarter [7] - The company's "Rule of 40" metric has improved from 81% to 127%, indicating strong profitability relative to its revenue growth [9] - Despite its growth potential, Palantir faces challenges in expanding its workforce to capitalize on international opportunities, and its shares have seen a 20% decline year-to-date, making them more attractively priced [10] Group 3: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is a leading e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America, reporting a 39% year-over-year revenue growth and a net profit margin of 5.7% [11] - The company has 115 million unique buyers and 72 million monthly active users in its fintech services, marking its 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 30% [11] - Concerns about competition from Sea Limited's Shopee in Brazil have impacted its stock performance, but the e-commerce market in Latin America is projected to grow faster than the global average [12] Group 4: Vanguard Information Technology ETF - The Vanguard Information Technology ETF includes major growth stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, providing a diversified investment option in the tech sector [14]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre has seen significant activity from institutional investors, with 87.62% of its stock owned by them, indicating strong institutional interest in the company [1] - The stock price of MercadoLibre (MELI) has recently decreased by 0.9%, with a current trading price of $1,988.26 [2] - Insider selling has been noted, with directors selling shares at prices around $2,047.88 and $2,027.37, raising concerns about market confidence [3] Institutional Activity - Bison Wealth LLC acquired a new stake worth approximately $206,000 in the fourth quarter [1] - Empowered Funds LLC increased its stake by 6.9%, now holding shares valued at $1,483,000 after acquiring 49 additional shares [1] - Focus Partners Wealth raised its position by 42.0%, owning shares worth $1,176,000 after acquiring 178 additional shares [1] - Sivia Capital Partners LLC purchased a new stake worth about $261,000 in the second quarter [1] - CWM LLC increased its stake by 13.9%, now holding shares valued at $2,718,000 after purchasing 127 additional shares [1] Stock Performance Metrics - The company has a market capitalization of $100.80 billion, a P/E ratio of 48.52, and a P/E/G ratio of 0.99 [2] - The stock has a 52-week low of $1,723.90 and a high of $2,645.22, indicating volatility in its trading range [2] - The current ratio is 1.17, quick ratio is 1.15, and debt-to-equity ratio is 0.55, reflecting the company's financial health [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Benchmark reduced its price target from $2,875.00 to $2,780.00 while maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Morgan Stanley increased its price objective from $2,850.00 to $2,950.00, giving the stock an "overweight" rating [4] - Barclays raised its price target from $2,800.00 to $2,900.00, also rating it as "overweight" [4] - Weiss Ratings downgraded the stock from a "buy (b-)" to a "hold (c+)" rating [4] - The consensus rating for MercadoLibre is "Moderate Buy" with an average target price of $2,886.25 [4] Insider Transactions - Director Stelleo Tolda sold 246 shares for a total of $503,778.48 at an average price of $2,047.88 [3] - Director Emiliano Calemzuk sold 45 shares for $91,231.65 at an average price of $2,027.37, resulting in a 14.90% decrease in ownership [3] - Over the last ninety days, insiders have sold 1,136 shares worth $2,308,788, with only 0.25% of the stock owned by corporate insiders [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Positive sentiment from JPMorgan's upgrade to overweight and a raised price target of $2,800, citing easing competition [9] - A partnership with Brazilian retailer Assaí is expected to enhance revenue and logistics monetization [9] - Concerns about insider selling and heavy investment spending are affecting market confidence [9] - Credit trends indicate rising bad-loan expenses in Mercado Crédito, which could impact profitability [9]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre, Inc. plans to release its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 24, 2026, and will host a video conference and conference call for investors and analysts [1] Company Overview - MercadoLibre is the largest online commerce ecosystem in Latin America, with a presence in 18 countries including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Peru [1] - The company operates a comprehensive e-commerce platform that facilitates a safe environment for buyers and sellers, contributing to the growth of e-commerce in a region with over 650 million people [1] - MercadoLibre also offers a fintech platform, MercadoPago, which provides a range of financial services including digital accounts, debit cards, online payments, insurance, savings, investments, and credit lines for both individuals and merchants [1] Financial Highlights - The company successfully issued USD 750 million of 2033 senior unsecured notes, which was 3.6 times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand and confidence in its strategy and cash generation capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - MercadoLibre's stock has remained nearly flat this year despite strong growth, primarily due to macroeconomic concerns and political instability in Latin America, but it is expected to rebound soon for several reasons [1]. Group 1: Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential, having served 76.8 million unique active buyers in the latest quarter, with most revenue coming from Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico. It is expanding into higher-growth markets such as Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador, and may re-enter Venezuela after recent U.S. military intervention [2]. Group 2: Fintech Expansion - MercadoLibre's fintech ecosystem, which includes the Mercado Pago payments platform, credit, and digital banking services, is expanding. It served 72.2 million monthly active users across its fintech services in the latest quarter, with expectations for further user growth as it rolls out more services and enters new countries [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - The company's profits are increasing as it expands its higher-margin third-party marketplace, credit, and advertising segments, while operating expenses are declining due to economies of scale. Analysts project revenue and EPS growth at CAGRs of 29% and 30% respectively from 2024 to 2027, with a current valuation of 30 times forward earnings, making it attractive to growth-oriented investors once the Latin American market stabilizes [4].

Loomis Sayles, an investment management company, released its “Global Growth Fund” investor letter for the fourth quarter of 2025.  A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Fund prioritizes investments in high-quality companies that possess a lasting competitive advantage and long-term growth drivers, capable of generating attractive cash flow and sustained value for investors. The Fund returned -3.05% in Q4 2025 compared to 3.29% for the MSCI ACWI Index Net. As a patient investor, the firm maintain ...

Core Insights - Both Amazon and MercadoLibre have faced challenges primarily due to their non-e-commerce businesses, impacting their stock price growth over the past year [2][10] - The choice between investing in Amazon or MercadoLibre depends on the investor's risk tolerance [15][16] Amazon - Amazon's cloud computing arm, AWS, is its main profit source, contributing significantly to operating income despite only accounting for 18% of total revenue in 2025 [4] - The company plans to allocate $200 billion to capital expenditures in 2025, following a $132 billion spend in 2025, which has raised concerns among investors [5] - Amazon generated $11 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and has $123 billion in liquidity, allowing it to invest in growth [9] - Amazon's net sales grew by 12% in 2025, and its market cap is approximately $2.25 trillion [11][12] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre's fintech business, Mercado Pago, has become a key growth driver but is currently facing issues with non-performing loans, with provisions for doubtful accounts increasing by 58% to over $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [6][10] - The company experienced a revenue surge of 37% in the first nine months of 2025, significantly outpacing Amazon's growth [12] - MercadoLibre's market cap is around $102 billion, allowing for potentially faster growth due to its smaller size [11][13] Investment Considerations - For risk-averse investors, Amazon's liquidity and potential in AI make it a more suitable choice despite high capital expenditures [15] - For those willing to take on higher risks, MercadoLibre may be a better option due to its ability to navigate challenges and its potential for rapid growth [16]