Core Viewpoint - MarketAxess (MKTX) is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 7.6%, while revenues are anticipated to reach $203.35 million, indicating a 3.1% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.6% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Commissions' is $176.68 million, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Revenues- Post-trade services' are forecasted to reach $10.99 million, showing a year-over-year change of 0.4% [5]. - 'Revenues- Information services' are expected to be $13.05 million, indicating a 9.5% increase from the previous year [5]. Commission Revenue and Transaction Fees - Total commission revenue from variable transaction fees is estimated at $148.05 million, representing an 8.1% increase from the prior year [6]. - The 'Average Variable Transaction Fee Per Million - Credit' is projected to be $149.91, down from $156.28 reported in the same quarter last year [6]. Average Daily Volume Estimates - The 'Average Daily Volume - Total' is expected to reach $39.18 billion, up from $29.64 billion a year ago [7]. - The consensus for 'Average Daily Volume - Total credit trading' is $14.15 billion, compared to $13.11 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Average Daily Volume - Total rates trading' is projected at $25.02 billion, an increase from $16.53 billion year-over-year [8]. Emerging Markets and High-Grade Trading - The 'Average Daily Volume - Total credit trading - Emerging markets' is estimated at $3.47 billion, up from $2.93 billion in the same quarter last year [9]. - For 'Average Daily Volume - Total credit trading - High-grade', the estimate is $6.75 billion, compared to $6.22 billion reported in the same quarter last year [9]. - The 'Average Daily Volume - Total credit trading - Eurobonds' is projected to be $1.97 billion, up from $1.77 billion in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - MarketAxess shares have decreased by 0.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.7% [11]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [11].

Core Viewpoint - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 6, 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.70 per share and revenues at $203.35 million, reflecting a year-over-year revenue growth of 3.1% despite a projected earnings decline of 7.6% [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess' total revenues for 2024 is $818 million, indicating an 8.7% year-over-year increase, while the earnings per share estimate is $7.25, suggesting a growth of approximately 5.8% year-over-year [3]. - The consensus estimate for commissions in Q4 is $176.7 million, representing nearly 3% growth from the prior-year quarter, and information services revenues are expected to reach $13.1 million, implying a 9.5% rise from the previous year [10]. Trading Volume Insights - Higher trading volumes and market share gains across credit product lines are anticipated to boost credit commission revenues, with total trading volume expected to increase by 33.3% year-over-year [7]. - Eurobonds trading volumes are projected to grow by 14.6% year-over-year, while U.S. high-grade trading volume is expected to see a 14.7% increase, with some estimates suggesting a 17% rise [9]. Expense Projections - Total expenses for the fourth quarter are expected to rise to around $126 million, reflecting an increase of nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by higher employee compensation and technology costs [12]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MarketAxess, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating uncertainty regarding earnings performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - MarketAxess (MKTX) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite higher revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated on February 6, 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.70, reflecting a -7.6% change year-over-year. Revenues are projected at $203.35 million, indicating a 3.1% increase from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.63% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for MarketAxess is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.75%. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. Historical Performance - MarketAxess has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters. In the most recent quarter, it reported earnings of $1.90 per share against an expectation of $1.82, achieving a surprise of +4.40% [12][13]. Conclusion - While MarketAxess does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].

Performance Overview - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) shares have declined by 20.4% over the past three months, significantly underperforming the industry, which saw a decline of 3% [1] - In comparison, CME Group Inc. (CME) experienced a gain of 2.5%, while Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) fell by 7.4% during the same period [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3%, indicating a stark divergence in performance [1] - MKTX is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting downward momentum [1] Key Challenges - MKTX reported growth in total credit average daily trading volume for Q4 2024, but this was offset by significant declines in key segments [5] - U.S. high-yield trading activity fell by 18.7% year over year in Q4 2024, with a market share drop of 380 basis points [5] - U.S. high-grade trading activity increased by 4% year over year, but its market share decreased by 250 basis points [5] - A shift towards large block trading may be contributing to the decline in market share [5] - Transaction fees per million for total credit fell by 3.8% year over year in Q4 2024 due to product mix, despite higher trading volumes in certain areas [6] Financial Performance - Total expenses for MKTX rose by 8.2%, 11.8%, and 11.5% year over year in 2022, 2023, and the first nine months of 2024, respectively [6] - Management expects 2024 expenses, including the Pragma acquisition, to be near the low end of the previously provided range of $480 million to $500 million [7] Valuation Insights - MKTX appears relatively expensive from a valuation perspective, which may limit short-term gains [8] - The company's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 26.62X, higher than the industry average of 22.4X [8] - Other industry players like CME Group and Cboe Global Markets are priced at 21.85X and 20.81X price/earnings, respectively [9] Growth Drivers - MKTX has consistently benefited from solid trading volumes, which are the primary driver of its revenues [10] - In the first nine months of 2024, commissions advanced by 9% year over year, supported by an average daily trading volume of $35.8 billion [10] - The company leverages acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its product portfolio and expand its footprint in fixed-income trading [11] - A strategic data partnership with S&P Global Market Intelligence was established in October 2024 to increase transparency and efficiency in fixed-income markets [11] - MKTX's Open Trading platform contributed to a credit volume of $782.2 billion, improving by 10.7% from the prior-year period [12] - As of September 30, 2024, MKTX had cash and cash equivalents of $446.3 million and generated $209 million in net cash from operations, an increase of 8.8% from the prior-year period [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MKTX's 2024 earnings is $7.38 per share, indicating growth of 7.7% from the prior-year figure [15] - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is $8.21 per share [15] - MKTX's earnings have outpaced estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.2% [16] Conclusion - Despite facing short-term challenges such as declining market share, falling transaction fees, and rising expenses, MKTX's robust trading volumes, strategic partnerships, and strong financial position highlight its potential for long-term growth [17] - However, the company's higher valuation compared to the industry average suggests it may not be an opportune time to buy the stock [17]

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) announced impressive growth in its trading volumes for the fourth quarter of 2024 and December. The total credit average daily trading volume (ADV) reached nearly $13.9 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of more than 6%. This growth was driven by notable gains across various segments, including a 4% rise in U.S. high-grade ADV, an 18% boost in emerging markets ADV and 13% growth in Eurobonds ADV. Total ADV rose 38% to $41 billion in the December quarter.One of the st ...

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) benefits from solid trading volumes, acquisitions and collaborations, a well-established Open Trading platform and robust cash-generating abilities.   MKTX’s Zacks Rank & Price PerformanceMarketAxess carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The stock has gained 20.6% in the past year.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchRobust Growth Prospects of MarketAxessThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess’ 2024 earnings is pegged at $7.37 per share, indicating a year-over-yea ...

An Easter basket full of eggs with paper money on white background. Focus on the $100 bill in the ... [+] center.gettySix summers ago, Donald Trump lamented privately to Republican donors that he expected Jay Powell to be a “cheap money” Fed chair. To the President’s chagrin, Powell had recently raised interest rates. Thus, making money more expensive.Most real estate guys like Trump are allergic to high rates. Back in 2018 they were certainly no bueno for his growth-focused agenda. The President told Fox B ...

MarketAxess (MKTX) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.The power of a ch ...

Shares of MarketAxess (MKTX) have been struggling lately and have lost 5.2% over the past week. However, a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session, which could mean that the stock found support with bulls being able to counteract the bears. So, it could witness a trend reversal down the road.While the formation of a hammer pattern is a technical indication of nearing a bottom with potential exhaustion of selling pressure, rising optimism among Wall Street analysts about the future earnin ...

I am a former sell-side / buy-side equities analyst that has left the world of day to day trading but remains closely engaged with market and individual stock developments. I focus primarily on exchanges and brokers with a long / short fundamental approach to my analysis. My goal for these posts is to try and shed unique light on investment theses around the stocks I focus on. Any investing I do is purely for my own personal account.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ...