Group 1 - Mizuho Securities has lowered the target prices for several tech companies, focusing on Atlassian, Cloudflare, and Microsoft [1] - The target price for Atlassian has been reduced from $245 to $225, for Cloudflare from $280 to $255, and for Microsoft from $640 to $620, while maintaining a "buy" rating for all three [1] - Analyst Gregg Moskowitz noted that the overall performance of market research for Q4 is solid, with strong demand for AI applications and healthy cybersecurity needs [1] Group 2 - There is a noted slowdown in the release of year-end budgets compared to previous years, and investor concerns about AI disrupting industries continue to suppress valuation multiples for many software companies, particularly in the SaaS sector [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current enterprise value-to-sales multiple is 55% lower than the five-year peak and 30% lower than the average [1] - The firm believes that the risk-reward ratio for the next twelve months is attractive, despite high uncertainty potentially leading to challenges and volatility [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. Internet and U.S. SMID-Cap Software sectors, particularly Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its correlation with cloud-linked infrastructure companies like Datadog (DDOG) and Cloudflare (NET) [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Web Metrics Correlation**: There is a strong correlation between engaged visits to AWS' SSO web interface and AWS' non-AI revenue in the following quarter, indicating real-time trends that can predict revenue performance [1][34]. - **Q4 Revenue Acceleration**: Strong web metrics in H2'25 signal a potential acceleration in Q4 revenue for AWS and related companies. Q3 was noted as the strongest since 2021, with continued momentum into Q4 [2][33]. - **2025 IT Budget Dynamics**: IT budgets were reportedly spent more aggressively in H2'25, which may impact growth in H2'26 due to tougher comparisons with the end of 2025 [5][20]. - **CIO Survey Insights**: The recent CIO survey indicates that IT budgets entering 2026 are the strongest since 2018, with a focus on cloud modernization and platform investments [4][14]. - **AI Demand and Supply**: AI demand is critical for revenue acceleration in 2026, with an under-supply environment expected to persist despite significant capacity additions. AWS is expected to double its capacity by 2027, which is essential for continued revenue growth [6][15]. Financial Metrics and Forecasts - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Outperform rating maintained with a price target of $300. Expected adjusted EPS for 2026 is $8.31, with a P/E ratio of 28.8 [7][8]. - **Datadog (DDOG)**: Outperform rating maintained with a price target of $180. Expected adjusted EPS for 2026 is $2.85, with a P/E ratio of 41.8 [9]. - **Twilio (TWLO)**: Market-Perform rating maintained with a price target of $119. Expected adjusted EPS for 2026 is $5.83, with a P/E ratio of 20.4 [10]. - **Cloudflare (NET)**: Market-Perform rating maintained with a price target of $131. Expected adjusted EPS for 2026 is $1.58, with a P/E ratio of 116.6 [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Q1 Trends for 2026**: Early indicators suggest that Q1'26 may see growth acceleration compared to previous years, with a focus on avoiding the nuances that have historically dragged down performance [3][12]. - **Spending Patterns**: The spending patterns observed in 2025, particularly around the holiday season, may have implications for Q1'26 performance, as IT budgets were largely spent early [20][21]. - **Correlation with Other Companies**: AWS serves as a bellwether for other cloud consumption-linked companies, with strong correlations noted between AWS and Datadog, Cloudflare, and Twilio [49][50][53]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the trends, financial forecasts, and implications for the industry and specific companies.

Group 1 - Cloudflare, Inc. is transitioning from a usage-based platform to a fundamental enterprise infrastructure platform focusing on security, networking, and AI computation [1] - The company is leveraging its software-defined edge to facilitate this transition [1] Group 2 - The investment style focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 3-5 times outweighing downside risk [1] - Risk management is prioritized, aiming for a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding [1] - The investment horizon is set at 2-3 years to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time [1]

Core Insights - Cloudflare, Inc. is transitioning from a usage-based platform to a fundamental enterprise infrastructure platform focusing on security, networking, and AI computation [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Cloudflare is enhancing its software-defined edge to facilitate this transition [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes identifying high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 3-5 times outweighing downside risk [1] - The approach leverages market inefficiencies and contrarian insights to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment [1] - A strong margin of safety is sought to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding [1] - The investment horizon is set at 2-3 years to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - Truist has lowered the price target for Cloudflare (NET) to $225 from $275 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the cybersecurity sector in Q4 [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Cloudflare's price target adjustment reflects a broader research note on the cybersecurity sector, which is expected to report strong performance in calendar Q4 [1] - The firm anticipates that companies will adopt a conservative approach for guidance, potentially leading to a "beat-and-raise" trend for 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Conversations with IT budget holders and software sellers suggest that demand and the macro environment remain stable, with ongoing momentum in Security & AI initiatives [1] - Despite the positive outlook, software equities are facing significant pressure as investors shift focus towards AI hardware, contributing to a decline of approximately 7% in the IGV – iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF in the early weeks of trading [1] - Concerns regarding AI-driven competitive disruption, slow monetization of AI features, prolonged high interest rates, and geopolitical shocks are impacting the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - NET stock is anticipated to experience significant movement, with implied volatility indicating a potential price range between $152.89 and $215.45 based on current market conditions [1] Options Market Sentiment - The options flow shows a bullish sentiment, primarily driven by sold puts, although a preference for more debit-based directional trades was not observed last week [2] - The Barchart Technical Opinion indicator currently rates NET stock as a 56% Sell, reflecting broader market pessimism [3] Company Narrative and Market Context - Cloudflare's leadership highlighted a "technical glass ceiling" for enterprises that do not modernize their applications, emphasizing the risks of excessive spending on AI while innovation accelerates [4] - Concerns about the technology ecosystem have led to a decline in market value for Cloudflare, with a 54% increase in NET stock over the past year prompting some investors to exit [5] Statistical Analysis and Market Dynamics - The Black-Scholes model provides a first-order analysis of volatility, but the Markov property suggests that future market behavior is influenced by current states rather than being independent [6][7] - Under normal conditions, a long position in NET stock typically ranges between $170 and $230, but recent performance has shown only four up weeks in the last ten, indicating a downward trend [9] - The Markovian analysis indicates a broader range of outcomes between $160 and $240, with the highest probability density between $183 and $211 under current market conditions [10][11] Trading Strategy - A recommended trade is the 200/210 bull call spread expiring March 20, 2026, involving buying the $200 call and selling the $210 call for a net debit of $455, with a maximum profit potential of $545 [12][13] - This trade aligns with expected price movements and probability density, suggesting a high likelihood of reaching the $210 price point based on the 4-6-D sequence [14] - The high implied volatility for the March 20 options chain supports a directional wager rather than a more expensive straddle-type trade [15]

Core Insights - KeyCorp reported a record full-year revenue of $7.5 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, with fourth-quarter revenue exceeding $2 billion [1][3][31] - The company achieved a net income of $474 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to a net loss of $(279) million in the same quarter of 2024 [2][36] - KeyCorp's strong performance is attributed to strategic investments in technology and front-line bankers, leading to significant organic growth [5][40] Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter pre-provision net revenue increased by $46 million quarter-over-quarter, with a full-year increase of 44% year-over-year [1][3] - Net interest income rose by 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a net interest margin of 2.82%, up 7 basis points [1][9] - Noninterest income for the fourth quarter was $782 million, an increase of 11.4% from the previous quarter [12][40] Asset Quality - Nonperforming assets decreased by 6% quarter-over-quarter, with net charge-offs down to 39 basis points [1][22] - KeyCorp's allowance for credit losses was $1.7 billion, stable compared to previous quarters, reflecting improving credit quality trends [24][25] Capital Management - The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 11.7%, with the company repurchasing $200 million of common shares during the quarter [2][26] - KeyCorp's capital ratios exceeded regulatory benchmarks, indicating a strong capital position [26][28] Business Segments - The Consumer Bank segment generated $948 million in revenue, a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter, while the Commercial Bank segment reported $1.1 billion in revenue, up 9.4% [31][37] - Investment banking and debt placement fees recorded strong performance, contributing to the overall revenue growth [5][40] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued organic revenue and earnings growth in 2026, supported by strong business momentum and strategic investments [5][40]

Group 1 - Citigroup has lowered the target price for Cloudflare from $318 to $260 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

If you'd like to learn more about how to best position yourself in under valued stocks mispriced by the market to start 2026, consider joining Out Fox The Street .Stone Fox Capital is an RIA from Oklahoma. Mark Holder is a CPA with degrees in Accounting and Finance. He is also Series 65 licensed and has 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager. Mark leads the investing group Out Fox The Street where he shares stock picks and deep research to help readers uncover potential ...

Core Insights - Google has a significant data access advantage over competitors, allowing it to see 3.2 times more web pages than OpenAI and 4.8 times more than Microsoft [2][4] - Google's search dominance enables it to access parts of the internet that competitors cannot, as many websites allow Googlebot to bypass paywalls [3][4] - The amount of data available to a company is crucial in determining success in the AI sector, with Alphabet's Gemini outperforming others due to superior data access [4] Group 1: Data Access Comparison - Googlebot accesses 3.2 times more web pages than OpenAI, and 4.8 times more than Microsoft [2] - Other AI companies, like Anthropic, have similar access levels to Microsoft, indicating a significant disparity in data access among AI firms [2] Group 2: Implications of Data Access - Google's privileged access is attributed to its search engine position, which allows it to see parts of the internet that are not visible to others [3] - The competition in AI is heavily influenced by data availability, with the assertion that "whoever has the most data wins" [4] - There are calls for either limiting Google's data access for AI or providing competitors with similar access to level the playing field [4]