Core Insights - Nike's fiscal 2025 third quarter results indicate challenges due to trade wars and tariffs, reflecting a decline in consumer demand and a slow turnaround process [1][2] - Revenues decreased by 9% year over year to $11.3 billion, which was better than Wall Street's expectations of a drop to $11 billion [2] - CFO Matthew Friend projected that tariffs will impact margins by 4% to 5%, with revenues expected to decline in the mid-teens range [2] Financial Performance - Nike Brand revenues were reported at $10.9 billion, down 9%, with declines across all geographies [3] - Nike Direct revenues fell to $4.7 billion, a 12% decrease, driven by a 15% decline in digital sales and a 2% dip in store sales [3] - North America revenues slipped by 4%, EMEA revenues decreased by 6%, and China sales plummeted by 15%, with digital sales in China down 29% [6] Digital Strategy - The company is repositioning its digital strategy by reducing promotional days and markdown rates, aiming for a full-price business model [4][5] - Digital traffic is expected to decline in double digits for fiscal 2026, but there are plans for stabilization and growth through new product launches and increased brand marketing [4] Market Conditions - The market remains promotional, particularly in the consumer and digital channels, with external factors such as geopolitical dynamics and new tariffs creating uncertainty [7][8] - The company aims to maintain a balanced portfolio across its brands, including Nike, Jordan, and Converse, while navigating these challenges [8]

Core Insights - Nike reported $11.27 billion in revenue for the quarter ended February 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.3% and an EPS of $0.54 compared to $0.98 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of +2.13% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.03 billion and an EPS surprise of +92.86% over the consensus estimate of $0.28 [1] Revenue Performance - North America revenue was $4.86 billion, exceeding the estimated $4.44 billion, but down 4.1% year-over-year [4] - Asia Pacific & Latin America revenue was $1.47 billion, below the estimated $1.53 billion, representing a decline of 10.8% year-over-year [4] - Europe, Middle East and Africa revenue reached $2.81 billion, surpassing the estimate of $2.78 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 10.4% [4] - Greater China revenue was $1.73 billion, below the estimated $1.82 billion, marking a significant decline of 16.8% year-over-year [4] - Total Nike Brand revenue was $10.89 billion, exceeding the estimate of $10.59 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 8.9% [4] - Converse revenue was $405 million, below the estimated $456.77 million, reflecting an 18.2% decline year-over-year [4] - Global Brand Divisions revenue was $12 million, exceeding the estimate of $9.79 million, with a year-over-year increase of 33.3% [4] - Corporate revenue was -$26 million, worse than the estimated -$16.05 million, showing an improvement of 85.7% year-over-year [4] - Footwear revenue was $7.21 billion, surpassing the estimate of $7.06 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 11.7% [4] - Equipment revenue was $477 million, slightly below the estimated $490.77 million, with a year-over-year decline of 2.1% [4] - Apparel revenue was $3.19 billion, exceeding the estimate of $3.02 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 3% [4] Stock Performance - Nike shares returned -4.9% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -7.5% change, indicating relative outperformance [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Market Overview - The Dow finished down -11 points (-0.027%) after reaching an intra-day high of +286 points [1] - The S&P 500 lost -12 points (-0.22%), the Nasdaq was down -59 points (-0.33%), and the Russell 2000 fell -13 points (-0.65%) [1] Existing Home Sales - February Existing Home Sales reached 4.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, exceeding the estimate of 3.95 million and the previous month's 4.08 million [2] - The average median price of existing homes increased by +3.8% year over year to $398.4K [2] Leading Economic Indicators - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February decreased by -0.3%, down from +0.2% in the prior quarter and lower than the anticipated -0.2% [3] - The LEI is now at -1.0% over the trailing six months, an improvement from -2.1% in the previous six months [3] - New manufacturing orders declined, and consumer sentiment remains fragile, with 2025 GDP now estimated at +2.0% [3] Earnings Reports - NIKE (NKE) reported fiscal Q3 earnings per share of 54 cents, surpassing the Zacks consensus estimate of 28 cents, with revenues of $11.27 billion exceeding expectations of $11.11 billion [5] - NIKE's margins were slightly soft at +41.5%, with the Chinese market underperforming [5] - FedEx (FDX) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $4.51 per share, below the Zacks consensus of $4.65, while revenues were $22.2 billion, exceeding expectations of $21.89 billion [7] - FedEx's full-year earnings are now expected to be between $18.00 and $18.60 per share, down from the prior estimate of $19.27 [7] - Micron (MU) posted fiscal Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share and revenues of $8.05 billion, both exceeding expectations [8] - Micron has guided for a record revenue quarter in Q3, projecting $8.8 billion, with full-year revenues expected to reach $37.9 billion [8]

Core Insights - Nike reported quarterly earnings of $0.54 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.28 per share, but down from $0.98 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 92.86% [1] - The company generated revenues of $11.27 billion for the quarter ended February 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.13%, but down from $12.43 billion year-over-year [2] - Nike has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Performance - The earnings surprise of 92.86% indicates strong performance relative to expectations, with a previous quarter's earnings of $0.78 per share also exceeding estimates [1][2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.27, with projected revenues of $11.17 billion, while the estimate for the current fiscal year is $2.06 on revenues of $46.24 billion [7] Market Position and Outlook - Nike shares have declined approximately 3.5% since the beginning of the year, mirroring the S&P 500's decline of -3.5% [3] - The company's Zacks Rank is currently 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] - The Shoes and Retail Apparel industry, to which Nike belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]

Core Insights - Nike reported strong earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.30, despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 9% to $11.27 billion [1][6][3] Financial Performance - EPS for Q3 2025 was $0.54, compared to an estimate of $0.30 and a prior year EPS of $0.77, reflecting a 30% decrease [3] - Revenue reached $11.27 billion, surpassing the estimate of $11.02 billion but down from $12.4 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 9% decline [3] - Net income was $0.8 billion, down 32% from $1.2 billion in the previous year [3] - Gross margin decreased to 41.5%, down from 44.8% in Q3 2024, a decline of 3.3 percentage points [3] Business Overview - Nike is a leading supplier of athletic footwear and apparel, with brands including Nike, Air Jordan, and Converse, focusing on product innovation and direct-to-consumer sales [4] - The company emphasizes digital platforms and company-owned stores to enhance margins and consumer engagement [4] Strategic Initiatives - Nike aims for growth through brand storytelling and athlete engagement, with a focus on a "Win Now" strategy to strengthen brand presence and drive product innovation [5] - The company is committed to innovation in sports apparel, despite recent sales declines, and has renewed marketing contracts with major sports leagues [9] Market Challenges - The quarter faced financial challenges, with a notable 17% revenue drop in Greater China, indicating regional economic impacts and competitive pressures [6] - Direct-to-consumer revenue fell 12% year over year to $4.7 billion, with digital sales down 15%, contradicting management's digital transformation efforts [7] Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - Operational costs were reduced by 8%, partially offsetting gross margin declines, while marketing expenditures increased by 8% [7] - The tax rate decreased from 16.5% to 5.9% due to a significant deferred tax benefit, and the company allocated about $1.1 billion for dividends and buybacks [8] Future Outlook - Management provided minimal guidance but reiterated a focus on product innovation and readiness to navigate a dynamic market landscape [10] - Positive developments in international markets, particularly Greater China and Europe, are crucial for overcoming recent revenue challenges [11]

Nike (NKE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call March 20, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Paul Trussell - VP of Corporate Finance & TreasurerElliott Hill - President & CEOMatthew Friend - Executive VP & CFOLorraine Hutchinson - Managing DirectorBrooke Roach - Vice President - Equity ResearchRandal Konik - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Aneesha Sherman - AnalystSimeon Siegel - Managing Director & Senior AnalystAlex Straton - Analyst Operator Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nike Incorporated Fisca ...

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Financial Performance - Third quarter revenues were $11.3 billion, down 9% on a reported basis and down 7% on a currency-neutral basis compared to the prior year[4]. - Net income was $0.8 billion, down 32%, with diluted earnings per share at $0.54, a decrease of 30%[5]. - Total revenues for NIKE, Inc. decreased by 9% to $11,269 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025, compared to $12,429 million for the same period in 2024[16]. - The diluted earnings per share (GAAP) for the three months ended February 28, 2025, was $0.77, compared to $0.98 excluding restructuring charges[20]. - The company reported a 28% decrease in income before income taxes, totaling $3,567 million for the nine months ended February 28, 2025[18]. Revenue Breakdown - NIKE Direct revenues were $4.7 billion, down 12% on a reported basis and down 10% on a currency-neutral basis, primarily due to a 15% decrease in NIKE Brand Digital[5]. - Total NIKE Brand revenues fell by 9% to $10,890 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025[16]. - Footwear sales in North America dropped by 9% to $3,132 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025, while total sales in the region decreased by 4%[16]. - Greater China experienced a 17% decline in total sales, amounting to $1,733 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025[16]. - The total sales for Converse decreased by 18% to $405 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025[16]. Margins and Costs - Gross margin decreased 330 basis points to 41.5%, primarily due to higher discounts and product costs[5]. - The EBIT margin for NIKE, Inc. was 7.3% for the three months ended February 28, 2025, down from 10.9% in the same period last year[18]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned approximately $1.1 billion to shareholders in the third quarter, including dividends and share repurchases[6]. - The company continues to have a strong track record of increasing returns to shareholders, with 23 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts[6]. Expenses and Inventories - Demand creation expense increased by 8% to $1.1 billion, primarily due to an increase in brand marketing expense[5]. - Cash and equivalents and short-term investments were $10.4 billion, down approximately $0.2 billion from last year[10]. - Inventories were $7.5 billion, down 2% compared to the prior year, reflecting product mix shifts[10]. - Corporate expenses increased significantly, with a net loss of $470 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025, compared to a loss of $874 million in the same period last year[18]. - Equipment sales in North America rose by 10% to $222 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025[16].

Core Insights - Nike is set to release its fiscal third quarter results on March 20, which will provide insights into the consumer discretionary sector [1] - The stock is currently 7% above its 52-week low of $68 and significantly below its one-year high of $101, indicating ongoing market challenges [2] - Nike faces increased competition from brands like Adidas, Under Armour, and Lululemon, necessitating innovation in its product line [3] Financial Performance Expectations - Nike's Q3 sales are expected to decline by 10% to $11.12 billion compared to $12.43 billion in the same quarter last year, with Greater China sales projected to drop 13% to $1.81 billion [5] - The company's Q3 EPS is anticipated to fall to $0.28 from $0.98 a year ago, although it has exceeded EPS consensus estimates for six consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 29.82% [6][7] Market Position and Stock Performance - Nike's stock has decreased by 3% in 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's decline of 5%, and has plummeted 27% over the past year compared to the broader market's increase of 7% [9] - Over the last decade, Nike has gained 43%, outperforming Under Armour but trailing behind the benchmark, Adidas, and Lululemon [10] Valuation Metrics - Currently, Nike trades at a forward earnings multiple of 35.6X, which is a premium compared to the benchmark's 21.1X and the industry average of 11X, yet below its decade-high of 51.1X [11] Future Outlook - Nike's total sales are expected to decline by 10% this year but are projected to stabilize and rise by 1% in fiscal 2026 to $46.59 billion, with EPS expected to rebound to $2.25 in FY26 [6][8] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with future performance dependent on meeting or exceeding Q3 expectations and providing guidance that indicates a return to growth [13][16]

Group 1 - BofA Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson maintains a Buy rating on Nike Inc with a price target of $90.00, highlighting management's proactive measures to adjust the market and clear old inventory for new product launches [1] - The analyst projects third-quarter EPS of $0.22, indicating that the results will be less significant than the overall message regarding the product reset cycle and the traction of new products [2] - Management may delay offering an F26 outlook due to uncertainty surrounding the product reset and consumer spending trends [3] Group 2 - The analyst anticipates that management might provide insights into margin recovery for F26, but detailed earnings guidance is unlikely [4] - Margin risks are expected in the third quarter as management focuses on reducing lifestyle inventory through wholesale buybacks and markdowns [5] - Actions such as buying back products from retail partners will increase inventory on the balance sheet, but short-term margin pressure is seen as beneficial for stock outlook, indicating progress in clearing the way for new products [6] Group 3 - The earnings call may not reveal major product updates, but early successes in products like Vomero 18 or Pegasus Premium will be closely monitored as key catalysts to re-engage investors [7] - NKE shares closed lower by 0.53% at $73.31 on Tuesday, reflecting market sentiment [7]