Core Viewpoint - Par Petroleum (PARR) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having shown significant surprises in its recent earnings reports, particularly in the oil and gas refining and marketing industry [1]. Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Par Petroleum reported earnings of $5.95 per share, exceeding the expected $1.98 per share, resulting in a surprise of 200.51% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported $1.54 per share against an expectation of $0.74 per share, leading to a surprise of 108.11% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Par Petroleum have been increasing, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [5]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Par Petroleum is currently +0.42%, suggesting that analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8]. Zacks Rank and Success Rate - Par Petroleum holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high probability of beating consensus estimates, with historical data showing nearly 70% success in such cases [6][8].

Group 1 - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. will release its fourth quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026, after the NYSE closes [1] - A conference call for investors is scheduled for February 25, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time [2] - The full text of the earnings release will be available on Par Pacific's website [1] Group 2 - Par Pacific is an energy company providing renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States [4] - The company has a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day across four locations [4] - Par Pacific operates an extensive energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage [4] - The company owns 46% of Laramie Energy, LLC, which focuses on natural gas production in Western Colorado [4]

Core Viewpoint - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) has experienced a decline in share price and is facing adjustments in price targets from analysts, while still being recognized for its strong performance in the previous year [1][3][4]. Company Performance - The share price of Par Pacific Holdings fell by 4.5% from January 16 to January 23, 2026, making it one of the energy stocks that lost the most during that week [1]. - The company posted gains of over 114% in 2025, ranking it among the 11 best performing energy stocks of that year [4]. Analyst Insights - Piper Sandler lowered its price target for Par Pacific Holdings from $59 to $57, maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, indicating a positive outlook despite the price adjustment [3]. - The analyst anticipates that the American refining sector will be significantly impacted by U.S. actions in Venezuela, with potential increases in crude flow from 200,000 barrels per day to over 400,000 barrels per day due to U.S. involvement and sanctions relief [3]. Market Context - Par Pacific Holdings operates in logistically complex markets and is recognized as a growth-oriented company within the energy and infrastructure sectors [2].

Core Insights - Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has experienced a significant increase of over 113% in its stock price, indicating strong market interest and potential for further growth [1]. Company Overview - Par Pacific Holdings operates in the energy and minerals sectors, which are noted for their growth opportunities and active market dynamics [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, with a focus on technology sectors such as SaaS and cloud businesses, as well as energy and minerals [1].

Core Viewpoint - Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has experienced a significant increase of over 113% in its stock price, indicating potential for further growth despite the substantial rise already observed [1]. Company Insights - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, and emphasizes a rigorous approach to investment analysis [1]. - The analyst has a long position in PARR shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2]. Sector Analysis - The analyst has a strong interest in the energy and minerals sectors, which are perceived to offer incredible growth opportunities and are actively researched [1].

Core Insights - Piper Sandler's "Macro Select" stock-picking model significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, achieving a return of approximately 22% compared to the S&P 500's 16% gain [1] - The updated Macro Select list for 2026 focuses on stocks with strong earnings surprises, earnings revisions, attractive earnings yield, and high return on equity (ROE) [3] Stock Performance - AT&T Inc. (Ticker: T) in the Communication Services sector had a 1-year return of 10% [5] - Graham Holdings (Ticker: GHC) in the Consumer Discretionary sector had a 1-year return of 4% [6] - Par Pacific Holdings (Ticker: EAT) in the Consumer Discretionary sector had a 1-year return of 12% [7] - Deluxe Corporation (Ticker: PARR) in the Energy sector had a 1-year return of 13% [8] - Mueller Water Products (Ticker: MWA) in the Industrials sector had a 1-year return of 14% [10] - Kilroy Realty (Ticker: KRC) in the Real Estate sector had a 1-year return of 6% [11] - UGI Corporation (Ticker: UGI) in the Utilities sector had a 1-year return of 33% [12] - Clearway Energy (Ticker: CWEN) in the Utilities sector had a 1-year return of 23% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Delek US Holdings Inc (NYSE:DK) has an RSI value of 24, with a stock price decline of approximately 23% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $11.02 [5] - Par Pacific Holdings Inc (NYSE:PARR) has an RSI value of 27.9, with a stock price decline of around 24% over the past month, hitting a 52-week low of $11.86 [6] - PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE:PRT) has an RSI value of 13.6, with a stock price decline of about 27% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $2.73 [6] Group 2: Price Actions and Analyst Ratings - Delek US Holdings closed at $29.66 after a 0.9% drop on Wednesday, with an analyst rating of Outperform and a price target raised from $45 to $51 [5] - Par Pacific closed at $35.14 after a 1.1% drop on Wednesday, with a capital expenditure guidance of $190 million to $220 million for 2026 [6] - PermRock Royalty Trust closed at $2.79 after a 4.6% drop on Wednesday, reporting second-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share, down from 11 cents per share year-over-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Delek US Holdings Inc (NYSE:DK) has an RSI value of 24, with a stock price decline of approximately 23% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $11.02 [5] - Par Pacific Holdings Inc (NYSE:PARR) has an RSI value of 27.9, with a stock price decline of around 24% over the past month, hitting a 52-week low of $11.86 [6] - PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE:PRT) has an RSI value of 13.6, with a stock price decline of about 27% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $2.73 [6] Group 2: Price Actions and Analyst Ratings - Delek US Holdings closed at $29.66 after a 0.9% drop, with an analyst rating of Outperform and a price target raised from $45 to $51 [5] - Par Pacific closed at $35.14 after a 1.1% drop, with recent capital expenditure guidance announced [6] - PermRock Royalty Trust closed at $2.79 after a 4.6% drop, with second-quarter earnings reported at 10 cents per share, down from 11 cents per share year-over-year [6]

Core Insights - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) is recognized as one of the 11 Best Performing Energy Stocks in 2025 [1] - The company is growth-oriented, operating in complex markets with a focus on energy and infrastructure [2] Capital Expenditure Guidance - For FY 2026, Par Pacific Holdings projects capital expenditures between $190 million and $220 million [3] - The company plans to allocate $50-60 million for turnarounds, including $10 million for maintenance at its Washington refinery [3] - Maintenance and catalyst costs are expected to be $105-$115 million, with $20 million for catalyst costs, $15 million for Hawaii single point mooring investments, and $10 million for Montana reliability investments [3] - Growth initiatives are earmarked at $35-$45 million, with $30 million for refining and logistics investments and $10 million for retail growth investments [3] Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar raised the price target for PARR from $45 to $49, indicating a potential upside of nearly 40% from the current share price [4] - The firm maintains a 'Neutral' rating on PARR, reflecting cautious optimism amid a generally negative sentiment in the US oil and gas sector [4][5] - The analyst notes that despite current oversupply and high storage concerns, there is 'underappreciated value' in the E&P sector that could be realized in the coming year [5]

Core Insights - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is positioned favorably in the refining sector, with a refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day and operations in Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest [2] - The refining environment in 2025 has significantly improved, with U.S. refining margins rising due to supply constraints and increased demand for distillate fuels, leading to a substantial increase in PARR's earnings [3] - The company reported third-quarter 2025 refining earnings of $340.8 million, a dramatic rise from $19 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] Industry Overview - The refining sector has experienced a boost in earnings in 2025, supported by strong refining margins driven by maintenance and outages, as well as growing demand [3] - Geopolitical tensions and sanctions are contributing to a positive market outlook for refining companies, including PARR, in the fourth quarter [4] Company Performance - PARR is expected to continue benefiting from a supportive refining environment in Q4, with strong margins influenced by geopolitical disruptions and seasonal demand for distillates [4][10] - The company's stock has surged 116.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 15.3% [9] Valuation Metrics - PARR's current valuation stands at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 4.45X, slightly above the industry average of 4.36X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PARR's 2025 earnings has seen downward revisions recently, indicating potential volatility in future earnings expectations [12]