4Q2023 在线营销服务收入同增 56.90%，佣金收入同增 357.05% 公司 4Q2023 收入和利润均大超我们此前预期，主要是由于：1）公司主站平台 建立了较强的高性价比用户心智，用户消费频次和货币化率有较好的增长；2） 公司出海业务 TEMU 发展迅速；3）公司期间费用率下降幅度较大，从而提高了 公司的盈利能力。鉴于公司 TEMU 业务仍处于高速发展期，有利于提升公司收 入和利润，我们上调对公司 2024/ 2025 年 GAAP 归母净利润的预测 47%/68% 至 918.78/1296.71 亿元，新增对公司 2026 年 GAAP 归母净利润的预测 1765.67 亿元。公司低价心智壁垒较为稳固，海外业务发展迅速，维持"买入"评级。 买入（维持） | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------| | | | | 市场数据 | | | 总股本(亿股 ) | 53.14 | | 总市值(亿美元)： | 1,755.99 | | 一年最低/最高(美元 )： | 108.87/152.99 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 54.02% ...

PDD Holdings (PDD US) PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|-----------| | (YE 31 Dec) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 130,558 | 247,639 | 389,619 | 492,359 | 540,111 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 31,538.1 | 60,026.5 | 83,882.9 | 118,906.4 | 127,694.3 | | Adjust ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to PDD with a target price of $155.15/ADS, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - Temu replicates PDD's domestic strategy of "absolute low prices" through a fully managed model, achieving extreme supply chain efficiency [1] - Temu's fully managed model centralizes product selection and pricing, ensuring the lowest prices across all categories and optimizing platform resource allocation [1] - Temu's low prices, combined with large-scale event marketing, have rapidly increased its market presence, outperforming competitors like Amazon and Shein in price competitiveness [1] - In 2024, Temu will continue to innovate its business model, focusing on the fully managed model while introducing a "local-to-local" model to diversify product offerings [1] - Temu's logistics strategy includes increasing the proportion of sea freight and potentially building warehouses in core markets like the US to enhance fulfillment capabilities [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 248.3 billion in 2023E to RMB 455.1 billion in 2025E, with a CAGR of 27.2% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 60.6 billion in 2023E to RMB 104.1 billion in 2025E, with a CAGR of 28.2% [2] - Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 45.63 in 2023E to RMB 78.37 in 2025E [2] - ROE is projected to remain strong, ranging from 26% to 29% between 2023E and 2025E [2] Business Model and Strategy - Temu's fully managed model reduces barriers for merchants, attracting factories and suppliers with weak bargaining power, especially those sensitive to procurement costs [1][27] - Temu's pricing strategy ensures that prices across all categories are significantly lower than competitors like Amazon and Shein, with prices typically 30%-70% of Amazon's [132] - Temu's logistics strategy involves centralized shipping, which improves bargaining power with logistics providers and reduces costs [38] - Temu plans to expand its product categories, including large items, which will increase the proportion of sea freight and optimize cost structures [1][158] Market Expansion and User Demographics - Temu has expanded to 49 countries across Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Oceania, and South Africa as of January 2024 [18] - Temu's user base is more male-dominated and older compared to Shein, TikTok, and Amazon, with 40.7% of users aged 25-44 and 47.2% aged 45+ [11] - Temu's global MAU reached 183 million, with the US accounting for 65% of its MAU [18] Competitive Landscape - Temu's low-price strategy positions it as a strong competitor in the US market, especially during periods of high inflation, where consumers are more price-sensitive [84] - Temu's pricing advantage is evident across categories like women's clothing, 3C products, and home goods, where its prices are significantly lower than Amazon's [132] - Temu's fully managed model contrasts with Shein's OEM model and AliExpress's POP model, offering a unique approach to supply chain management [59] Future Outlook - Temu is expected to continue its rapid market expansion, leveraging its supply chain advantages and low-price strategy to capture market share in both developed and emerging markets [172] - The platform plans to enhance its logistics capabilities by building warehouses in the US and increasing the use of sea freight for large items [1][158] - Temu's introduction of the "local-to-local" model will further diversify its product offerings and improve resource allocation [1][142]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) is expected to report Q4 2023 revenue of 82.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 107%, with online marketing revenue of 43.5 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 39 billion yuan [5]. - For the full year 2023, Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to be 241.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with online marketing revenue of 148.4 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 92.9 billion yuan [5]. - The expected operating profit for Q4 2023 is 17.3 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 19.7 billion yuan. The full year 2023 operating profit is anticipated to be 53.6 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 60.9 billion yuan [5]. - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2023 is expected to be 2.95 yuan, with annual earnings per share for 2023 projected at 9.24 yuan [5]. Financial Overview - The current stock price is 123.20 USD, with a market capitalization of 163.9 billion USD [5]. - The company has 1.329 billion shares outstanding, with a 52-week high of 152.99 USD and a low of 59.67 USD [5]. - The report highlights that Temu's global GMV for 2023 is approximately 16.5 billion USD, with the U.S. being the largest single market [5]. Industry Context - Temu has recently launched a semi-managed model, allowing suppliers to choose logistics service providers to ship products to overseas warehouses, which may enable exploration of higher-priced and larger items [5]. - The report notes that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill related to TikTok, which could pose policy risks for e-commerce platforms like Temu in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price of **$180**, implying a potential upside of **36.2%** [12][16] Core Views - Pinduoduo's Q4 2023 revenue and profit exceeded expectations by **10%** and **53%** respectively, driven by strong growth in advertising and commission income [9] - The company's domestic e-commerce GMV grew by **32%** in Q4 2023, with advertising monetization rate increasing by **51 basis points** [9] - TEMU, Pinduoduo's international platform, achieved a GMV of **$8.1 billion** in Q4 2023, with a monetization rate of **42%**, and is expected to reach breakeven in mature markets by 2024 [9][17] - The report forecasts **62%** revenue growth and **54%** profit growth for Pinduoduo in 2024, driven by TEMU's expansion and improved monetization [10] Financial Performance - Pinduoduo's revenue for 2023 reached **RMB 247.6 billion**, a **89.7%** year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP net profit of **RMB 67.9 billion**, up **68.9%** [11] - The company's gross margin stood at **63%** in 2023, with an EBITDA margin of **23.8%** and a net margin of **24.2%** [6] - Operating cash flow for 2023 was **RMB 131.1 billion**, a significant increase from **RMB 48.5 billion** in 2022 [6] Future Outlook - Pinduoduo's domestic GMV and revenue are expected to grow by **20%** and **25%** respectively in 2024, supported by increased user engagement and advertising monetization [17] - TEMU's GMV is projected to grow by **183%** to **$46.5 billion** in 2024, with a reduced loss rate of **8%**, and the platform is expected to achieve overall profitability by 2025 [17] - The company's non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to grow from **RMB 46.36** in 2023 to **RMB 70.33** in 2024, representing a **51.7%** increase [11]

KEY TAKEAWAYS American depositary receipts (ADRs) of PDD Holdings, the parent company of online discount retailer Temu, rose in early trading Wednesday after a fourth-quarter earnings beat,The company posted quarterly revenue and income above estimates, and more than double the figures it reported in the year-ago period.Jefferies analysts reiterated a "buy" rating on PDD in a note following the earnings report's release, with a price target of $157. American depositary receipts (ADRs) of PDD Holdings (PDD), ...

今日晚间值得关注的重磅新闻有： 1、习近平：在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起 2、Q4净利同比翻倍!拼多多一度涨超15% 券商关注跨境电商四主线 3、中央台办、国家发改委举办福建省深化两岸融合发展座谈会 4、北京会否加快放松限购?官方明确，多地继续出台购房支持政策 6、库克：苹果的生成式AI将在今年晚些时候宣布 以下为晚报正文： 1、习近平：在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起 重要程度：★★★★★ 习近平主持召开新时代推动中部地区崛起座谈会强调，在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起。 2、Q4净利同比翻倍!拼多多一度涨超15% 券商关注跨境电商四主线 重要程度：★★★★ 3月20日，拼多多美股一度涨超15%。消息面上，得益于旗下出海电商平台Temu的强劲表现，拼多多交出了一份远超华尔街预期的Q4业绩。 西部证券研报指出，跨境电商市场呈现全球性增长趋势，亚马逊及欧美地区为主要布局方向。跨境电商市场规模增量蒸蒸日上，其中出口电商占主导地位，未来体量仍会有新突破。全球电商渗透率提升，供应链优势及政策利好推动跨境电商高速增长。建议关注： (1)外贸数字化新型跨境贸易方式：小商品城; (2)跨境电商B2B领先企业，中国 ...

Shares of PDD Holdings (PDD 0.96%) were popping today after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted another round of blistering growth in its fourth-quarter earnings report. Revenue and operating profit both more than doubled in the period.As of 9:45 a.m., the stock was up 6% after opening up as much as 16% higher. PDD is destroying the competitionPDD, the parent of Pinduoduo and Temu, the fast-growing international discount e-commerce platform, blew past estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report.Revenue ...

PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) stock price was one of the best performers in Wall Street after the company published strong financial results. It surged from Tuesday’s close of $130 to almost $150, its highest level since January.Pinduoduo and Temu are growingCopy link to sectionPDD Holdings, the secretive Chinese e-commerce giant, published strong financial results, implying that its business was doing well.  The company’s revenue during the quarter surged by 123% YoY to $12.5 billion. This made it one of the ...

Key PointsPDD Holdings is set to give markets another leg higher on its coming quarterly earnings, especially after a recent dip.Mega investors see the potential in China, and PDD stands head and shoulders above its peers.Institutions are buying, analysts are boosting, and markets can't hide the writing on the wall.5 stocks we like better than American International GroupWatch for a dip buying opportunity in PDD Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: PDD as China’s economy blows past expectations this quarter. Analysts may ...