Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pagaya closed 2024 with annual revenue exceeding $1 billion, representing a 27% year-over-year increase [8] - Fee revenue less production costs (FRLPC) reached $407 million, up 54% year-over-year [9] - Adjusted EBITDA was $210 million, reflecting a 156% year-over-year growth [9] - The company reported a net loss of $238 million, primarily due to fair value adjustments [51] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loans, the most mature product, saw a 24% organic growth to $1.6 billion [28] - Auto lending experienced a nearly $1 billion annualized run rate with a sequential growth of just under 40% in Q4 [32] - Point of Sale (POS) loans demonstrated significant growth with over 170% sequential growth in Q4, achieving a run rate of more than $1 billion [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company processed over $2.6 trillion in loan applications across its network, resulting in $28 billion in loans originated for 2 million people [14] - The quarterly application volume was $197 billion, indicating deep integration with large lending institutions [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Pagaya aims to enhance financial inclusion by providing credit products to traditionally underserved customers [12] - The company is focused on disciplined growth and operational efficiency, expecting to achieve GAAP net income positive by Q2 2025 [23][40] - A forward flow agreement with Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to $2.4 billion in consumer loans underscores the demand for high-quality loans [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate consistent growth and profitability moving forward [11] - The company has built a robust infrastructure to predict and manage credit-related impairments, reducing the likelihood of future losses [74] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for network volume between $10.25 billion and $11.75 billion, with total revenue projected at $1.15 billion to $1.275 billion [66] Other Important Information - The company has restructured its balance sheet and enhanced its liquidity profile, indicating no need for equity capital moving forward [20] - The fair value of the investment portfolio was adjusted downward by $156 million, primarily due to 2023 vintages [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the fair value marks in the quarter? - Management acknowledged that the marks were larger than in prior quarters, primarily driven by 2023 vintages, and expressed confidence that future losses would be minimal due to improved credit performance [70][72] Question: How does the current operating environment affect your guidance? - Management indicated that the guidance reflects a stable operating environment, with consumer FICOs and delinquencies remaining stable [104] Question: What is the expected mix of network volume this year? - The company expects personal loans to continue growing, with significant investment in auto and POS platforms, which are anticipated to yield higher ROI [110]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies reported strong fourth-quarter results, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations across multiple metrics [2][6] - The company demonstrated robust year-over-year growth, particularly in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, indicating effective utilization of its AI technology [2][6] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS for Q4 was $0.17, compared to a consensus estimate of a loss of $0.52 per share [2][3] - Total revenue reached $279 million, surpassing the analyst estimate of $264 million and reflecting a 28.1% increase from $218 million in Q4 2023 [3][6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $64 million, an 87.5% increase from $34 million in the same quarter last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin growth of 728 basis points to 23.0% [3][6] Operational Highlights - Network volume for the quarter was $2.6 billion, a 9.4% increase from $2.38 billion in Q4 2023 [3] - The company has facilitated over $1.8 trillion in loan applications, showcasing its strong market presence and technological capabilities [4] - Pagaya's strategic partnerships with institutions like U.S. Bank and Elavon are aimed at expanding its offerings beyond personal loans [5][8] Challenges and Risks - Despite strong revenue growth, Pagaya reported a net loss of $238 million for the quarter, attributed to non-cash fair value adjustments and stock-based compensation [7] - Credit impairments from loans issued between 2021 and 2023 indicate potential performance issues under previous market conditions [7] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, Pagaya forecasts network volume between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, with expectations for growth in full-year volumes to reach between $10.25 billion and $11.75 billion [9] - Management anticipates achieving GAAP profitability by mid-2025, with projected total revenue between $1.15 billion and $1.275 billion [10]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported revenue of $279.39 million for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.1% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.17, down from $0.24 in the same quarter last year, indicating a decline [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $264.28 million by 5.72%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.32 by 46.88% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Network Volume reached $2.60 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $2.55 billion from two analysts [4] - Interest income was reported at $7.62 million, which is below the average estimate of $8.27 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 2.1% [4] - Revenue from fees amounted to $275.67 million, exceeding the average estimate of $257.45 million, and showing a year-over-year increase of 31% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. have returned +33.7%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Q4 Letter to Shareholders Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 》 PAGAYA PAGAYA TECHNOLOGIES LTD. DATE ISSUED February 13, 2025 " We delivered another quarter of strong operating and financial results, with all key metrics ahead of guidance and enter 2025 on the strongest footing in our history, while addressing legacy issues. We have bolstered our balance sheet flexibility, cash i flow generation and operating leverage and are positioned to demonstrate our earnings power and sustainable revenue growth in 2025 an ...

A short-seller ripped into Pagaya Technologies (PGY -13.03%) in a report published on Tuesday, and the market reacted accordingly. The document raised enough concern to generate an investor sell-off, with the stock closing 13% lower as a result. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.03%) essentially flatlined on the day.Sweeping allegationsThe firm behind the report is Iceberg Research, a business with a history of disseminating highly critical analyses of stocks it has shorted. In its latest report, bearing the ...

There was some encouraging news about Pagaya Technologies (PGY 12.92%) on Friday, and this boosted the value of the tech company's stock. It rose by almost 13% in value on a recommendation change from an analyst, and that performance served as quite a positive contrast to the nearly 1% dip of the S&P 500 index on the day.Time for a recommendation adjustmentCitigroup's Peter Christiansen was the person behind that modification; well before market open he shifted his recommendation on Pagaya stock to buy from ...

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) shares rallied 5.9% in the last trading session to close at $11.07. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 15.1% gain over the past four weeks.Pagaya retained its rally for the fourth straight day, driven by its strength as a product-focused technology provider leveraging AI-powered solutions and data science to enhance financial outcomes for institutions, customers and ...

It’s time to revisit Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY ). Last time we covered this stock was about a year ago, back in November 2023. At that time, we initiated coverage with a strong buy rating. Since then, the stock is down ~48%. However, weStock analysis brought to you by the team at HedgeMix. The analysis is based on a careful review of the growth prospects of each company. For valuation purposes, we often use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, sharing valuable insight on cash flow generation under d ...

Zacks Rating Upgrade - Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), reflecting an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a powerful force impacting stock prices [1] - The Zacks rating system is highly useful for individual investors as it tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current and future years, providing a more objective measure compared to Wall Street analysts' subjective ratings [2][3] Earnings Estimate Revisions - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4] - Institutional investors use earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares, and revisions in these estimates lead to buying or selling, causing stock price movements [4] - Rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade for Pagaya Technologies Ltd imply an improvement in the company's underlying business [5] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7] - The system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for over 4000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% receiving a 'Buy' rating [9] Pagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Pagaya Technologies Ltd is expected to earn $0 92 per share, a 283 3% increase from the year-ago reported number [8] - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased by 15 3% [8] - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 positions Pagaya Technologies Ltd in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, indicating potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10]

Company Overview - Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) has been a closely followed retail stock since its public market entry via a SPAC in 2021 [2] - The stock has experienced significant volatility since its debut [2] Market Interest - Despite the volatility, there remains high interest in Pagaya Technologies among investors [2]