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Shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) have gained 1.1% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $10.81, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $21.89 indicates a potential upside of 102.5%.The average comprises nine short-term price targets ranging from a low of $11 to a high of $36, with a standard deviation of $8.40. While the lowest estimate i ...

Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor. This means buying into cheap companies at the moment when their narrative is changing and the business is on a path toward becoming significantly more profitable over the next year.With a focus on tech and “the Great Energy Transition (including uranium)”, Michael runs a concentrated portfolio with approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months. Through his 10+ years analyzing countless companies, Michael has accumulated outsta ...

Shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) have gained 0.3% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $10.88, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $22.89 indicates a potential upside of 110.4%.The average comprises nine short-term price targets ranging from a low of $12 to a high of $36, with a standard deviation of $8.72. While the lowest estimate i ...

Financial Performance - Total assets increased to $1,370.8 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to $1,208.4 million as of December 31, 2023[9] - Revenue from fees for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $728.9 million, up from $562.4 million in the same period in 2023[11] - Net loss attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $163.5 million, compared to $114.0 million in the same period in 2023[11] - Total revenue and other income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $752.9 million, up from $594.0 million in the same period in 2023[11] - Operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $35.1 million, compared to an operating loss of $35.1 million in the same period in 2023[11] - Comprehensive loss attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $254.4 million, compared to $109.3 million in the same period in 2023[13] - Net loss for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $74.231 million, compared to a net loss of $188.572 million in the same period in 2023[15] - Net loss including noncontrolling interests for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $(188.572) million, compared to $(176.702) million in 2023[18] - Net loss attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ordinary shareholders for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was $55.7 million for Class A and $11.7 million for Class B, compared to $16.7 million and $5.1 million respectively for the same period in 2023[118] - Net loss per share for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was $0.93 for both Class A and Class B, compared to $0.36 for the same period in 2023[118] - Net loss attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ordinary shareholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was $133.8 million for Class A and $29.7 million for Class B, compared to $86.4 million and $27.6 million respectively for the same period in 2023[118] - Net loss per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was $2.35 for both Class A and Class B, compared to $1.91 for the same period in 2023[118] - Net Loss Attributable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $(67,476), compared to $(21,752) in 2023[204] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $147.1 million as of September 30, 2024, from $186.5 million as of December 31, 2023[9] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $34.457 million, compared to $(9.372) million used in 2023[18] - Net cash used in investing activities for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $(462.677) million, compared to $(316.088) million in 2023[18] - Net cash provided by financing activities for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $387.906 million, up from $276.763 million in 2023[18] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period were $181.047 million, down from $284.178 million in 2023[19] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of September 30, 2024, were $181.0 million, compared to $222.5 million as of December 31, 2023[205] Investments and Loans - Investments in loans and securities increased to $912.1 million as of September 30, 2024, from $714.3 million as of December 31, 2023[9] - Investments in loans and securities available for sale had a total fair value of $923.4 million as of September 30, 2024, with gross unrealized losses of $94.2 million[56] - The company's total investments in loans and securities available for sale had a fair value of $716.8 million as of December 31, 2023, with gross unrealized losses of $13.4 million[57] - Proceeds from sales, maturities, and prepayments of investments in loans and securities were $23.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $89.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024[62] - Additions to the allowance for credit losses were $79.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and $159.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024[62] - The balance of the allowance for credit losses at the end of the period was $252.9 million as of September 30, 2024[63] - The company's total allowance for credit losses increased to $252.9 million as of September 30, 2024, up from $100.9 million at the beginning of the period, driven by additions to the allowance for credit losses not previously recorded of $112.3 million and write-offs of $7.1 million[64] - Investments in loans and securities (Level 3) as of September 30, 2024, total $874.8 million, with significant unobservable inputs including a weighted average discount rate of 15.0%, loss rate of 16.9%, and prepayment rate of 10.4%[91][93] Debt and Liabilities - Total liabilities increased to $753.8 million as of September 30, 2024, from $468.4 million as of December 31, 2023[9] - Secured borrowings outstanding balance increased to $408.7 million as of September 30, 2024, up 50.4% from $271.7 million as of December 31, 2023[45] - The outstanding principal balance under the Receivables Facility grew to $30.4 million as of September 30, 2024, a 49.8% increase from $20.3 million as of December 31, 2023[47] - The Company entered into a Credit Agreement on February 2, 2024, providing a $35 million Revolving Credit Facility and a $255 million Term Loan Facility[48] - The Receivables Facility maximum principal amount was increased from $32 million to $45 million in June 2024, with the term extended until June 2026[47] - As of September 30, 2024, the company had an outstanding balance of $230.2 million in long-term debt, with future maturities totaling $245.4 million[52][53] - The company had letters of credit issued in the amount of $15.2 million and $4.8 million of remaining capacity under the Revolving Credit Facility as of September 30, 2024[53] - On November 5, 2024, the company entered into Amendment No. 2 to the Credit Agreement, incurring incremental term loans of $72 million, bringing the total principal amount of the Term Loan Facility to $327 million[123] Equity and Shareholders - Total shareholders' equity as of September 30, 2024, was $542.775 million, a decrease from $665.749 million at the end of 2023[15] - Accumulated deficit increased to $706.1 million as of September 30, 2024, from $542.6 million as of December 31, 2023[9] - Accumulated deficit increased to $706.121 million as of September 30, 2024, from $542.637 million at the end of 2023[15] - Additional paid-in capital rose to $1.258862 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from $1.101914 billion at the end of 2023[15] - Issuance of ordinary shares upon exercise of share options generated $1.736 million in additional paid-in capital[15] - Share-based compensation contributed $13.89 million to additional paid-in capital[15] - Other comprehensive income (loss) for the period ending September 30, 2024, was a loss of $19.179 million[15] - Non-controlling interests decreased to $80.466 million as of September 30, 2024, from $106.028 million at the end of 2023[15] - Issuance of ordinary shares from the Equity Financing Purchase Agreement added $6.894 million to additional paid-in capital[15] - Return of capital to interests in consolidated VIEs resulted in a $2.574 million reduction in total shareholders' equity[15] - Total shareholders' equity as of September 30, 2023, was $671.852 million, with retained earnings (accumulated deficit) at $(528.219) million[16] - The Company has 60,160,631 Class A Ordinary Shares and 12,652,310 Class B Ordinary Shares outstanding as of September 30, 2024[96] - Class B Ordinary Shares are entitled to 10 votes per share and can be converted to Class A Ordinary Shares at any time[97] - The Company implemented a reverse share split at a ratio of 1-for-12, effective March 8, 2024[98] - Total shares of ordinary share reserved increased from 39,638,471 as of December 31, 2023 to 43,789,368 as of September 30, 2024[99] - Shares available for future grant of equity awards increased from 5,231,186 to 9,186,943 due to automatic increase under the 2022 Share Incentive Plan[99] - The company issued 7,500,000 Class A Ordinary Shares in March 2024, raising approximately $90.0 million in net proceeds[103] - Share options decreased from 4,250,988 to 3,489,238, with a weighted average exercise price of $6.4 and aggregate intrinsic value of $20.9 million as of September 30, 2024[105] - RSUs increased from 3,034,203 to 3,155,558, with unrecognized compensation expense of $32.0 million expected to be recognized over 1.1 years[109] - Options to restricted shares decreased slightly from 20,046,080 to 19,970,330, with unrecognized compensation expense of $13.1 million expected to be recognized over 1.4 years[110] - 59,145 shares were issued under the ESPP in the nine months ended September 30, 2024, with $0.4 million in related compensation expense[111] Revenue and Fees - Revenue from fees for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $728.9 million, up from $562.4 million in the same period in 2023[11] - Network AI fees totaled $229.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, a 24.5% increase from $184.0 million in the same period in 2023[34] - Contract fees reached $20.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up 15.5% from $17.4 million in the same period in 2023[37] - Total revenue from fees, net, was $249.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, a 23.8% increase from $201.4 million in the same period in 2023[41] - Four customers, including three related parties, collectively represented approximately 65% of total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024[44] - The company's fees receivable balances are predominantly with agreements with customers, subject to normal credit risks deemed not significant by management[43] - The Company had no material contract assets, contract liabilities, or deferred contract costs recorded as of September 30, 2024 or December 31, 2023[41] - The company's revenues are primarily derived from Network Volume, which is the gross dollar value of assets originated by Partners with the assistance of AI technology[137] - The company generates revenue from Network AI fees, contract fees, interest income, and investment income, with Network AI fees including AI integration fees and capital markets execution fees[154][155] - Total revenue and other income increased by $45.5 million, or 21%, to $257.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, driven by a $47.8 million increase in revenue from fees[167] - Revenue from fees increased by $47.8 million, or 24%, to $249.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to a $45.1 million increase in Network AI fees[168] - Revenue from fees for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $249,283, compared to $201,447 in 2023, a 23.7% increase[203] - Total revenue and other income increased by $158.8 million (27%) to $752.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily driven by a $166.5 million (30%) increase in revenue from fees[182] - Revenue from fees increased by $166.5 million (30%) to $728.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to a $160.7 million increase in Network AI fees[183] Expenses and Costs - Production Costs are highly correlated to Network Volume and include expenses for transferring Network Volume from Partners into Financing Vehicles[159] - Production costs increased by $20.2 million, or 16%, to $149.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, driven by increases in Network Volume and new Partners onboarded[174] - Production costs for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $148,965, compared to $128,792 in 2023, a 15.7% increase[203] - Production costs increased by $65.0 million (17%) to $439.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, driven by increases in Network Volume and new Partners onboarded[189] - Technology, data and product development costs decreased by $1.4 million, or 8%, to $16.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to a $4.2 million decrease in compensation expenses[175] - Technology, data and product development costs increased by $1.1 million (2%) to $57.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to higher depreciation of capitalized software[190] - Sales and marketing costs remained relatively flat at $11.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023[177] - Sales and marketing costs decreased by $5.2 million (13%) to $35.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily driven by lower compensation expenses[192] - General and administrative costs increased by $4.4 million, or 8%, to $57.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, excluding a $12.8 million loss from loan purchases[178] - General and administrative costs increased by $27.7 million (18%) to $185.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, excluding a $31.2 million loss from loan purchases[193] - Other expense, net increased by $60.9 million (129%) to $108.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, driven by a $40.6 million credit-related impairment loss and higher interest expenses of $17.5 million[179] - Other expense, net increased by $84.5 million (64%) to $215.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to higher interest expenses and credit-related impairment losses[194] - Impairment loss on certain investments for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $81,827, compared to $9,130 in 2023[204] Taxes and Compensation - The company's effective tax rate was 13.4% for Q3 2024, compared to 2.5% in Q3 2023, primarily due to discrete tax expenses related to uncertain tax positions[115] - Share-based compensation expense totaled $12.3 million for Q3 2024, a decrease from $20.7 million in Q3 2023[112] - The company has PTE status in Israel, subjecting income to a reduced tax rate of 12% through 2024[113] - Share-based compensation for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $12,333, compared to $20,737 in 2023[204] - Share-based compensation for the period ending September 30, 2024, was $45.852 million, down from $57.312 million in 2023[18] Strategic Investments and Acquisitions - The company plans to continue strategic investments in technology, data, product development, and potential acquisitions[206] - On October 22, 2024, the company completed the acquisition of Theorem Technology, Inc. for approximately $17.5 million, consisting of $10.0 million cash and 504,440 Class A Ordinary Shares[122] AI and Technology - The company's proprietary technology uses machine learning models that require human intervention, testing, validation, and governance approvals before any changes can be made[138] - AI technology enables Partners to increase loan originations by up to 25% in some cases[143] - The company invests in technology, data, and product development to maintain and develop its network and AI technology[160] Partners and Network Volume - In 2022, the company onboarded six new Partners, including Klarna and Ally Financial, and in 2023, added four new Partners, including U.S. Bank and Westlake Financial[144] - The company has evaluated over $2.4 trillion in application volume since inception[145] - Top 5 ABS investors contributed approximately 53% of total ABS funding in the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 50% in the year ended December 31, 2023[146] - Network Volume

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: PGY ) is a fintech (a financial technology) company that uses AI, machine learning, and data analytics to help financial institutions and investors offer better consumer credit and real estate solutions. They offer loans and credit cards. The company hasJoin a community generating outsized returnsGet more with our playbook to significantly grow your wealth by embracing a blended trading and investing approach at our one-stop shop.Our prices go up December 1st, but right now ...

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) reported $257.23 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.7%. EPS of $0.44 for the same period compares to $0.24 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $253.97 million, representing a surprise of +1.29%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +76.00%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.25.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they c ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company reported Q3 2024 total revenue of $257 million, fee revenue less production cost (FRLPC) of $100 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $56 million [29] - Network volume grew by 11% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, with personal loans and point-of-sale (POS) businesses growing 15% and 67% respectively [33] - FRLPC as a percentage of network volume reached a record 4.3%, up 83 basis points year-over-year, driven by higher fees from lending partners [34] - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 846 basis points to 21.8%, with adjusted EBITDA growing by $28 million year-over-year [36] - Net loss attributable to the company was $67 million, primarily due to credit-related fair value adjustments of $70 million [37] Business Line Performance - Personal loans, the company's flagship asset class, achieved an FRLPC of 6.6% of volume, the highest among all products [25] - POS business volume grew by 67% year-on-year and 51% sequentially, with significant growth expected from partnerships like Klarna and Elavon [23] - Auto lending sector is stabilizing, with partners looking to achieve normalized growth expectations, focusing on premier lenders like Ally and OneMain [24] - Pre-screen product expanded to two live partners, with seven more in the pipeline, expected to drive additional lending opportunities [26][27] Market and Strategic Developments - The company is in term-sheet discussions with several top-20 lenders across personal loans, POS, and alternative lending, with announcements expected next year [10] - The onboarding of Elavon, U.S. Bank's POS arm, is complete, and contributions to results are expected in Q4 2024 [23] - The company is focusing on expanding its network, improving funding efficiency, and driving economies of scale to achieve GAAP profitability by 2025 [7][12] - The company has diversified funding sources, including ABS, forward flow, and managed funds, reducing net risk retention to 2%-3% of total network volume [43] Management Commentary on Industry and Outlook - Management is optimistic about the improving macroeconomic backdrop, which is expected to extend access to credit for more consumers [11] - The company is transitioning to a sustainably profitable business model, focusing on cash flow generation without raising external equity capital [11][15] - The company expects to achieve GAAP net income profitability in 2025, driven by continued top-line growth and reduced credit-related impairments [38][46] - The company is narrowing its full-year 2024 target ranges, expecting network volume between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA between $195 million and $205 million [48] Q&A Session Question: Funding Mechanics and Economics - The company allocates 60%-70% of volume to ABS and 30%-40% to alternative funding sources like forward flow and managed funds [53] - The blended net risk retention is expected to be around 2%-3% of total network volume, with significant demand for pass-through programs [51] Question: Point-of-Sale Growth Potential - POS is expected to grow significantly, potentially matching the size and profitability of the personal loans business, driven by partnerships with major banks and Klarna [54][55] Question: Expense Control vs. Investment - The company has inherent operating leverage, with costs remaining flat while FRLPC grew by 38%, allowing for continued growth without significant incremental investment [58][59] Question: Regulatory Environment Post-Election - Management expects a more constructive regulatory environment under the new administration, which should benefit the company's growth and technology adoption [60] Question: FRLPC Outlook Across Asset Classes - FRLPC margins are expected to converge across asset classes, with auto and POS businesses expected to reach similar profitability levels as personal loans as they mature [74][75] Question: Credit Impairments and Future Outlook - Credit impairments in Q3 were primarily related to 2023 vintages, with the majority of remaining adjustments expected in Q4 2024 [67][69] - The company has optimized funding structures and diversified sources, creating a significant cushion against future impairments [69][86] Question: Private Credit and Approval Rates - The company is seeing increased interest from private credit shops, but approval rates among lending partners remain prudent due to the high-interest-rate environment [80][81] Question: Fair Value Marks and Future Sensitivity - The company has reduced risk retention by 40% compared to 2023, with structural changes making future impairments less likely [86][87]

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.25 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.24 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 76%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.20 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.10, delivering a surprise of -50%.Over the last four quarters, the compa ...

PA G AYA T E C H N O L O G I E S LT D . 3Q24 Earnings Supplement November 12, 2024 Contents 01 Financial Metrics 02 Operating Metrics 03 Non-GAAP Reconciliations 01 Financial Metrics 3Q'24 financial highlights | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|---------|---------|--------| | ($ millions) | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | %∆ | | Network Volume | $2,112 | $2,351 | 11% | | Total revenue & other income | $212 | $257 | 21% | | Revenue from fees | $201 | $249 | 24% | | ...