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Wall Street sets Rivian stock price for next 12 months
Finbold· 2025-03-16 16:20
Core Viewpoint - Rivian is facing a challenging year in 2025, with its stock down over 18% year-to-date, currently trading at $10.75, and lacking strong catalysts to attract investors [1][4]. Financial Performance - Rivian reported its first gross quarterly profit of $170 million in Q4, beating earnings expectations, with revenue of $1.73 billion, surpassing the expected $1.4 billion [4][5]. - The company aims for a "modest gross profit" in 2025, with adjusted losses expected to narrow to $1.7 to $1.9 billion from $2.69 billion in 2024 [5]. - Analysts project Q1 2025 revenue at $993.66 million, down 17.47% year-over-year, but expect a 22.59% increase to $1.42 billion in Q2 [6]. Revenue Forecast - Full-year 2025 revenue is forecasted at $5.39 billion, an 8.38% increase year-over-year, with 2026 projected to surge to $7.48 billion, a growth of 38.87% [6][9]. - Deliveries for 2025 are expected to be between 46,000 and 51,000 units, down from 51,579 in 2024, with no new model releases until 2026 [9]. Market Dynamics - Rivian's stock remains under a long-term downtrend, with a critical resistance level at $20 and support around $10 [2][3]. - The high interest rate environment and macroeconomic conditions may limit growth prospects for Rivian [4]. Growth Catalysts - Potential growth catalysts include expanding commercial sales beyond Amazon and unique partnerships, such as with Ben & Jerry's for electric ice cream trucks [10]. - Rivian's product pipeline, including the upcoming R2, R3, and R3X models, is expected to drive future growth, with the R2 launching in 2026 [11]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Wall Street analysts have set an average price target of $14.34 for Rivian, indicating a potential upside of 33.4% from the current valuation [12]. - Analyst opinions vary, with some maintaining a 'Hold' rating and others expressing bearish views, citing high per-vehicle losses and slowing volume growth [13][14].
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Advances But Underperforms Market: Key Facts
ZACKS· 2025-03-14 22:50
Group 1 - Rivian Automotive's stock closed at $10.76, with a daily increase of 1.41%, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.13% [1] - The stock has decreased by 20.23% over the past month, which is slightly better than the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's decline of 20.63% and worse than the S&P 500's loss of 9.57% [1] Group 2 - Rivian is expected to report earnings of -$0.80 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32.77%, while revenue is projected at $1.01 billion, a decrease of 16.47% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, the forecasted earnings are -$2.87 per share and revenue of $5.45 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of +28.96% and +9.61%, respectively [3] Group 3 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Rivian Automotive are crucial for investors, as upward revisions indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, currently ranks Rivian at 4 (Sell), with a 15.08% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6] Group 4 - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 160, placing it in the bottom 37% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]
Rivian Expands Hands-Free Driving Amid Financial & Market Challenges
ZACKS· 2025-03-14 15:11
Core Insights - Rivian Automotive has launched a significant software update for its R1S and R1T vehicles, introducing hands-free highway driving through the Enhanced Highway Assist system, which requires driver attention [1] - The company plans to implement an "eyes-off" driving feature by 2026, potentially necessitating additional hardware like LiDAR [2] - Rivian's first-generation R1 models will not receive hands-free driving but will benefit from other updates, including a new "Rally" mode for enhanced off-road performance and an over-the-air Performance Upgrade option [3] - Additional improvements include adjustable wheel size settings, automatic mirror tilt in reverse, a "Go Chime" feature, and a tire puncture detection system [4] - The updates reflect Rivian's commitment to software innovation and consumer convenience through remote delivery of improvements [5] Challenges Facing Rivian - Rivian is encountering several challenges, including a volatile regulatory environment affecting EV subsidies, tariffs, and emissions rules, which may impact pricing and demand [6] - The company has a soft delivery forecast for 2025, estimating 46,000-51,000 vehicles, a decrease from 51,579 in 2024, indicating ongoing challenges [6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with legacy automakers and new entrants vying for market share, compounded by political endorsements favoring competitors like Tesla [7] - Rivian is experiencing cash burn due to high capital expenditures for expansion, particularly in its Normal and Georgia facilities, making sustained profitability a significant hurdle [8]
Rivian's Autonomy Push Is Another Potential Failure
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-13 10:01
Core Viewpoint - Rivian is facing challenges due to its strategy of developing autonomous driving technology in-house rather than licensing it, which may not be sustainable given its current scale in the automotive industry [1] Group 1 - Rivian is burning billions of dollars annually while producing vehicles [1] - The company is investing in building autonomous driving technology internally [1] - This approach is considered a misalignment with Rivian's current position in the auto industry [1]
How Rivian Plans to Generate Extra Revenue
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-10 11:30
Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive is leveraging its in-house technology to create new revenue streams, exemplified by its performance upgrade offering for its vehicles [1][5]. Group 1: Performance Upgrade - Rivian is set to release a software update that enhances the performance of its second-generation R1S and R1T vehicles, increasing horsepower from 533 to 665 and torque from 610 to 829 lb-ft [2][3]. - The upgrade reduces the 0 to 60 mph time from 4.5 seconds to 3.4 seconds and includes specialized driving modes for different terrains [3]. - Consumers will need to pay an additional $5,000 to access this performance upgrade, which is significant given the starting price of a second-generation R1S is just under $76,000 [4]. Group 2: Technology and Joint Ventures - Rivian's vertically integrated technology platform allows it to develop its own tech in-house, which can be monetized by selling to other automakers [5]. - The company has formed a joint venture with Volkswagen Group valued at up to $5.8 billion, combining their strengths to create advanced software and electronic architecture [6]. - This partnership is expected to provide Rivian with cash flow and scale while collaborating with a major automotive player [7]. Group 3: Financial Progress and Future Outlook - Rivian has achieved a positive gross profit in the fourth quarter and is currently establishing an R2 production line in Illinois, with plans for R3 and R3X models to follow [8]. - The R2 model is also set to expand into international markets, indicating potential growth opportunities for the company [8]. - The introduction of consumer-focused strategies like the Rally mode could contribute significantly to revenue, even with a modest adoption rate [9].
Is Rivian Stock Worth the Hype?
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-05 12:00
Core Viewpoint - Rivian remains one of the most highly valued electric vehicle (EV) companies globally, despite the necessity to invest billions in operations and expansions over the next five years [1] Company Analysis - Rivian is facing significant financial demands, requiring substantial capital for both operational costs and growth initiatives [1] - The company is positioned as a new player in the EV market, presenting potential investment opportunities alongside inherent risks [1] Market Context - The valuation of Rivian reflects its popularity and market perception, but questions arise regarding its ability to sustain this valuation amid high expenditure requirements [1]
Rivian Makes Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream Dreams Come True
Prnewswire· 2025-03-04 15:30
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Ben & Jerry's and Rivian introduces electric scoop trucks aimed at modernizing the ice cream truck experience while promoting sustainability and reducing environmental impact [1][2][5]. Company Overview - Ben & Jerry's is a socially responsible ice cream company that emphasizes high-quality ingredients and social justice initiatives, operating as a Certified B Corp [10]. - Rivian is an American automotive manufacturer focused on electric vehicles, aiming to accelerate the transition to zero-emission transportation [9]. Product Launch - The new electric scoop trucks, built on the Rivian Commercial Van platform, will debut at South by Southwest (SXSW) in Austin, Texas, allowing fans to experience the innovative design [2][4]. - The scoop trucks are designed to enhance reliability and performance while minimizing the environmental footprint, aligning with both companies' sustainability goals [5][6]. Operational Impact - Following the SXSW event, the scoop trucks will travel across the U.S., participating in various events and catering opportunities, particularly in Vermont [4]. - The Rivian Commercial Vans have an estimated range of 161 miles, enabling more extensive outreach for Ben & Jerry's ice cream distribution [7].
Rivian's Stock Is Up Nearly 40% Off Its Lows. Here's What History Says Happens Next.
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-04 15:15
Core Viewpoint - Rivian's stock has shown volatility but may present a buying opportunity due to improving fundamentals and upcoming product launches, despite concerns over delivery outlook and competition in the EV market [5][14]. Financial Performance - Rivian reported positive gross margins for the first time in Q4 2024, attributed to a $31,000 reduction in cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2][6]. - The automotive revenue per unit (excluding regulatory credit revenue) increased to $86,000, driven by a sales mix shift towards higher-priced R1 vehicles [8]. Delivery Outlook - Rivian anticipates vehicle deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 for 2025, which is lower than the 51,579 deliveries in 2024 and below Wall Street's expectation of 55,000 [3][4]. - The company produced 12,727 vehicles and delivered 14,183 vehicles in Q4 2024, focusing on reducing inventory levels to generate cash from working capital [15]. Product Development - Rivian is set to launch the R2 vehicle platform in the first half of 2026, with significantly lower bill of materials costs and a starting price of $45,000, which is nearly half of the R1's average selling price [9][10]. - The company is enhancing its AI-powered autonomous driving capabilities, with plans for advanced features such as hands-free and eyes-off driving [11][12][13]. Market Position and Valuation - Rivian's stock is currently trading at 2.6 times sales, significantly lower than its historical three-year average multiple of about 64, suggesting a potentially attractive entry point for long-term investors [18]. - The company faces challenges from increasing competition, slowing EV demand, and regulatory changes, which could impact its stock performance [4][17].
Where Will Rivian Stock Be in 5 Years?
The Motley Fool· 2025-03-01 17:15
Core Insights - Rivian Automotive has faced a challenging start to 2025, with shares down 14% year to date, despite achieving gross profitability [1] - The market remains skeptical about Rivian's long-term outlook due to increasing competition in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [1] Financial Performance - Rivian reported a 32% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter, reaching $1.73 billion, and achieved a gross profit of $170 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $606 million in the previous year [2] - The operating loss decreased by 58% to $740 million, indicating a potential reduction in cash burn and reliance on external financing [3] Market Reaction - Despite positive financial results, the market reaction was negative, with Bank of America downgrading Rivian's stock rating from "neutral" to "underperform" due to competitive risks from other automakers [4] - Analysts predict a slowdown in EV demand, influenced by changes in government policy regarding EV incentives, which could adversely affect Rivian's market position [5] Future Outlook - Rivian's management has projected vehicle deliveries for 2025 to be between 46,000 and 51,000, a decline from 51,579 in 2024, highlighting ongoing challenges in scaling its business [6] - The company's future growth will depend on its ability to manage cash burn while leveraging its recent partnership with Volkswagen and a potential $10 billion loan from the Department of Energy [7] - With $7.86 billion in cash and equivalents, Rivian has a solid financial foundation to pursue growth opportunities, including new vehicle models at lower price points [8] - The introduction of lower-priced vehicles could significantly increase demand and position Rivian as a mass-market contender, similar to Tesla's Model Y [9]
Why Rivian Stock Roared Higher Today
The Motley Fool· 2025-02-27 19:14
Group 1 - Rivian Automotive reported earnings that left investors wanting more, particularly due to lower-than-expected production guidance for 2025, leading to a stock drop initially but later recovery with shares rising by 3.7% [1] - Tesla is experiencing declining sales, with a reported 45% drop in Europe in January, despite overall EV sales increasing by over 37%, indicating potential market share opportunities for Rivian [2][3] - Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV is positioned as a direct competitor to Tesla's Model Y, with production set to start later this year and deliveries expected in early 2026, potentially capitalizing on Tesla's brand challenges [4] Group 2 - Rivian achieved positive gross margins for the first time in Q4, attributed to cost-cutting measures, design improvements, and supply chain efficiencies, which may enhance future production levels and margins [5] - Investors are optimistic about Rivian's ability to leverage the current market dynamics and increased EV demand, particularly as it prepares for the R2 launch in 2026 [5]