Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by analysts in specific companies, indicating a bullish sentiment towards UPST, SOFI, and AFRM [1] Group 1 - Analysts have disclosed beneficial long positions in UPST, SOFI, and AFRM, suggesting confidence in these stocks [1] - The article emphasizes that the opinions expressed are personal and not influenced by external compensation [1]

Leadership Transition - Upstart has appointed co-founder Paul Gu as the new CEO, effective May 1, succeeding Dave Girouard, who will remain as executive chair and transition to a special adviser role [1] - Additional leadership changes include Sanjay Datta being named president and chief capital officer, and Andrea Blankmeyer joining as CFO next month [3] Company Background - Upstart was founded in 2012 by Gu, Girouard, and Anna Counselman as a lending platform that assesses creditworthiness using nontraditional variables like education and job history [2] - The company returned to profitability in 2025, reporting approximately $1 billion in revenue, a 64% increase from 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Upstart reported a profit of $18.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of $2.8 million in the same period the previous year [5] - Revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 35%, reaching $296 million [5] Strategic Vision - Gu emphasized the importance of credit as a cornerstone industry and expressed excitement about the company's potential to impact the future [5] - Girouard highlighted the thorough preparation for Gu's succession, indicating a well-considered transition plan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong revenue growth of 35% year over year to $265 million and a profit of $18.6 million in the final quarter of fiscal 2025, shares of Upstart are down 13.5% due to an earnings miss and qualitative concerns [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue grew 35% year over year to $265 million, driven by an 86% increase in loan originations [2]. - Projected sales for 2026 are approximately $1.4 billion, a significant increase from last year's $1.0 billion [2]. Leadership Changes - The imminent exit of co-founder and CEO Dave Girouard is a concern, as he will be replaced by co-founder and current CTO Paul Gu, marking the first time the original CEO will not lead the company [3]. Guidance Changes - Upstart has decided to stop providing quarterly guidance, opting instead for full-year estimates, which has led to reduced interim clarity for investors [4]. Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the leadership change and guidance modification is seen as a superficial response, as Girouard is closely associated with Upstart [5]. Future Outlook - The company remains committed to an annualized revenue growth rate of 35% through 2028, with analysts expecting growth to accelerate from 24.6% in 2026 to nearly 34% in 2027 [8]. - Upstart will begin publishing loan-origination metrics on a monthly basis, which will restore some transparency lost from the discontinuation of quarterly guidance [8].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings Inc reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 46 cents per share, slightly below the estimated 47 cents, while revenue exceeded expectations [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - The adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were 46 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 47 cents [1] - Revenue for the fourth quarter surpassed estimates, indicating a positive trend in sales despite the earnings miss [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc are down 15.6%, trading at $32.88, and have decreased by 48% over the past 12 months [1][2] - The stock is currently trading below its descending 100-day moving average and is close to its 18-month low of $31.40 [2] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Analysts have issued three price-target cuts, with Truist reducing its target from $59 to $49, while the 12-month consensus price target remains at $60.33, representing a 79.4% premium to current levels [1] Group 4: Options Market Activity - The call/put volume ratio for Upstart is 2.87, indicating a higher-than-usual appetite for bearish bets compared to bullish ones [3] - The stock's put/call open interest ratio of 1.15 is in the 100th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a significant preference for call options among short-term traders [4] - Over 19,000 calls and 12,000 puts have been traded today, with the February 30 call being the most popular contract [4]

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Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.2% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.46, up from $0.26 in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.47 by 1.6% [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $288.47 million, resulting in a positive surprise of 2.64% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Transaction volume reached $3.2 million, surpassing the average estimate of $2.96 million from three analysts [4] - Revenue from fees, net, was reported at $265.22 million, exceeding the four-analyst average estimate of $262.3 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 33.1% [4] - Total interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, amounted to $30.87 million, compared to the average estimate of $26.07 million from four analysts [4] - Revenue from servicing and other fees, net, was $42.94 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $45.08 million, with a year-over-year change of 28.1% [4] - Revenue from platform and referral fees, net, was reported at $222.28 million, exceeding the average estimate of $217.23 million from two analysts, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have returned -14.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite remained unchanged [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.46 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share, but showing an increase from $0.26 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -1.60% [1] - The company posted revenues of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.64%, and up from $218.96 million year-over-year [2] - Upstart has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a trend of positive performance in revenue estimates as well [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 11.2% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.54 on revenues of $257.77 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.65 on revenues of $1.24 billion [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, is currently in the top 27% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with Q4 revenue reaching approximately $296 million, up 35% year-over-year [23][25][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $230 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%, compared to 2% the previous year [29][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-over-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-over-year [9][16] - Total loan origination dollars in Q4 grew by 52% year-over-year, with personal loans growing 41% in its 12th year of operation [16][9] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a higher mix of non-personal loan products [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that 70% of funding for auto and home loans originated in Q4 came from third-party partners, indicating a shift towards a more diversified funding model [10][24] - The volume of loan transactions across the platform reached approximately 456,000, up 86% from the prior year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI to transform access to credit, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [11][32] - The focus for 2026 includes increasing market share in auto and home lending, with expectations of over $100 million in fee revenue from these secured products [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [10][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also expanding into larger markets for secured products [30][31] - Management noted that the average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeds that of U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, indicating strong credit performance [18] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu set to become the new CEO, while Dave Girouard will continue as Executive Chairman [5][6] - The company has launched new models and technology updates that have improved loan performance and reduced default rates [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving a significant portion of funding from external partners [35][36] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [38][39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a longer-term view on customer lifetime value [42][44] Question: What is the current health of the consumer credit market? - Management reported that consumer health is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [51][52] Question: How does the company view the long-term market share opportunity in auto and home lending? - Management expressed confidence in achieving significant market share in these categories, driven by AI-enabled lending capabilities [54][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, up 64% as well [23][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 22%, compared to just 2% the previous year, reflecting strong operational leverage [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-on-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-on-year [9][16] - The average loan size rose to approximately $7,000, a 5% increase from the prior quarter, driven by a higher mix of non-personal loan products [27] - The contribution margin for Q4 was 53%, down 4 percentage points from the prior quarter, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term customer value [27][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a total of approximately 456,000 loan transactions in Q4, an 86% increase from the previous year [26] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) averaged around 1.4 for most of the past year, indicating a stable consumer risk environment [18][32] - The company expects to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2025 to 2028, with a target adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25% by 2028 [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its position as a leader in AI-powered lending, focusing on expanding market share in auto and home lending segments [11][56] - A strategic shift towards prioritizing customer lifetime value over immediate take rates is expected to enhance long-term profitability [30][68] - The company plans to enhance transparency by providing monthly transaction volume updates, allowing investors to better gauge performance trends [12][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's growth trajectory, citing a strong foundation built over the past years and improved AI capabilities [10][11] - The leadership transition is seen as a positive step, with the new CEO emphasizing the importance of technology in driving future growth [5][15] - The company anticipates that economic factors such as tax refunds and looser monetary policy will positively impact consumer demand for loans [64] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced its balance sheet loans by 20% in Q4, with a significant portion of new product originations funded by third parties [9][25] - The leadership team has undergone changes, with new appointments aimed at strengthening the company's strategic direction [15][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products, with 70% of these products now funded by third parties [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - The company clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk, without labeling it as conservative or aggressive [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a mix shift towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a focus on long-term customer value [43][45] Question: What is the current health of the private credit partnerships? - The company reported that their private credit partners are performing well, with strong diligence on credit quality [48] Question: How does the company view the consumer health and its impact on loan demand? - Management noted that consumer health is stabilizing post-COVID, with positive trends in UMI indicating a return to normalcy [52][53] Question: What is the company's perspective on the personal loan market and potential saturation? - The company believes it is gaining market share in personal loans and is focused on competitive advantages rather than overall market growth [61][62] Question: How is the company planning to engage borrowers during the repayment period? - Management acknowledged that there is significant potential for improving customer engagement and cross-selling additional products [83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, a 64% increase from 2024, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, exceeding guidance [22][28] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [14][27] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $230 million, representing a 22% margin, compared to just 2% the previous year [22][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan originations grew by 52% year-over-year in Q4, with personal loans increasing by 41% and new products like auto and home loans growing significantly [13][14] - The company reduced loans on its balance sheet by 20% in Q4, indicating a shift towards third-party funding for new products [8][24] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a growing mix of non-personal loan products [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a transaction volume of approximately 456,000 loans in Q4, up 86% from the previous year [25] - The average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeded U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, showcasing strong credit performance [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to establish itself as a leader in AI-powered lending, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [10][32] - A focus on expanding into secured products like auto and home loans is expected to contribute over $100 million in fee revenue in 2026 [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [9][12] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also scaling up new secured product categories [30][32] - Management noted that the health of consumers is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [53] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu becoming the new CEO, while Dave Girouard remains as Executive Chairman [4][5] - The company launched significant model updates in Q4, enhancing its AI capabilities and improving loan performance metrics [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving liftoff in these areas [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a long-term view on customer lifetime value [43][45] Question: What is the current health and appetite for consumer credit among funding partners? - Management reported that their partners are performing well and have a steady appetite for credit, with new relationships being developed in secured segments [48][49] Question: How does the company view the personal loan market and its growth potential? - Management emphasized that they focus on gaining market share rather than overall market growth, and they believe their competitive product offerings will continue to drive growth [61][62]