Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. reported a significant decline in fourth-quarter revenues and earnings due to lower iron ore prices, despite revenues beating estimates [1][6][7]. Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter revenues decreased by 22% year-over-year to approximately $10.1 billion, with the Iron Solutions segment experiencing a 26% decline in revenues due to a 10% drop in sales volumes and a 21% decrease in prices [6][7]. - Adjusted earnings per share fell 64% to $0.20, while pro-forma adjusted EBITDA dropped 40% year-over-year to around $4.12 billion, reflecting lower iron ore prices and sales volumes [7]. - Vale's stock closed at $9.89, which is 28% below its 52-week high of $13.68 and 18% above its 52-week low of $8.38 [2]. Market Context - Vale's share price has been affected by the downtrend in iron ore prices, primarily due to weak demand in China [3]. - Over the past year, Vale shares have lost 27%, aligning with the industry's decline, while the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector decreased by 0.7% [2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's earnings for fiscal 2025 has decreased, while estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased, indicating a projected year-over-year growth of 1.65% for 2025 and 13.8% for 2026 [8][9]. Long-Term Growth Prospects - Vale aims to increase iron ore production to 325-335 million tons in 2025 and 360 million tons by 2030, supported by key projects like Vargem Grande 1 and Capanema Maximization [11]. - The company is investing in the Energy Transition Metals business, with the Voisey's Bay Mine Expansion expected to enhance nickel production capacity significantly [12]. - Copper output is projected to reach 340-370 thousand tons in 2025, with plans to increase to 700 thousand tons by 2035 [13]. Dividend and Valuation - Vale offers a sector-leading dividend yield of 9.28%, significantly higher than the sector's 2.46% and the S&P 500's 1.23%, with a payout rate of 59.92% [16]. - The company is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 5.23X, which is a discount compared to the sector's average of 15.36X [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. reported disappointing fourth-quarter 2024 results, with adjusted earnings per share of 20 cents, significantly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents, and reflecting a 64% decline from the previous year's earnings of 56 cents per share due to lower iron ore sales volumes and prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's net operating revenues decreased by 22% year over year to approximately $10.1 billion, although it slightly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10 billion [3]. - The Iron Solutions segment generated revenues of $8.15 billion, down 26% from the same quarter last year, driven by a 10% decline in sales volumes and prices [3]. - The Energy Transition Metals segment's revenues fell by 0.5% year over year to $1.97 billion, with nickel revenues down 9% to $1.07 billion, while copper revenues increased by 13% to $0.96 billion [4]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit dropped 37% year over year to $3.86 billion, with a gross margin of 33.1%, compared to 29.9% in the previous year [5]. - Adjusted operating income was reported at $2.99 billion, a 47% decrease from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA was around $3.8 billion, down 41% year over year [6]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of 2024, Vale had cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.9 billion, an increase from $3.6 billion at the end of the previous year [8]. - Cash flow from operations was $9.4 billion, down from $13.2 billion in 2023, while gross debt and leases rose to $15.5 billion from $13.9 billion [8]. Yearly Overview - For the full year 2024, Vale reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.82, a 1% decline year over year, with net operating revenues down 9% to around $38 billion [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Vale's shares have decreased by 24.7%, compared to a 22.9% decline in the industry [10].

Vale's 4Q24 Performance February 20th, 2025 1 Vale's 4Q24 Performance February 20th, 2025 1. Opening remarks 2. Financial Performance 2 Disclaimer "This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results, including without limitation (i) our ability to deliver decharacterization projects as planned on slides 5; (ii) our ability to deliver growth projects as planned on slide 6; (iii) our revised expectations for capex on slide 9, and (v) cost guidance on slide ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pro forma EBITDA for Q4 2024 was over $4.1 billion, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter [22] - Iron ore production reached 328 million tons, the highest level since 2018, exceeding original guidance [12] - C1 cash costs for iron ore were $18.8 per ton in Q4, nearly 10% lower year-on-year and the lowest since Q1 2022 [24] - Recurring free cash flow generation was approximately $800 million in Q4, $300 million higher than in Q3 [28] - Expanded net debt remained stable at $16.5 billion, within the target range of $10 billion to $20 billion [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In iron ore, the company shifted its portfolio mix, reducing high silica material sales and increasing high-quality products from Carajás, resulting in higher margins [12] - Base metals saw the highest copper production since 2020, driven by Salobo, which produced roughly 200 kilotons of copper in 2024 [13] - Nickel costs are trending downward, supported by the ramp-up of the VBME project [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved higher realized iron ore premiums due to the strategic shift in product mix [22] - The all-in cost for copper was the lowest since Q4 2020, driven by higher byproduct revenues from Salobo [26] - The all-in cost for nickel was approximately $13,900 per metric ton, the lowest since Q1 2022 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on evolving its asset portfolio to meet client needs with a competitive cost profile, aiming for operational excellence [6] - A new Carajás initiative was announced to enhance exploration and development of critical minerals [18] - The company is committed to a disciplined capital allocation approach, balancing CapEx optimization and shareholder returns [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting significant progress in operational performance and cost management [7][101] - The company is focused on maximizing cash flows and maintaining flexibility in its inventory strategy [104] - Management believes the settlement related to the Mariana accident is the best path forward for all parties involved [63] Other Important Information - The Board approved $2 billion in dividends and interest on capital, resulting in an annualized yield of 10% [16] - A buyback program for up to 3% of outstanding shares was also approved [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inventory levels and sales mix strategy - Management acknowledged an increase in inventories due to a focus on high-quality products and flexibility in sales strategy [38][42] Question: Base Metals progress and cost expectations - Management reported significant progress in Base Metals, with a focus on reducing overhead and improving productivity [53][56] Question: Strategy regarding municipalities affected by the Mariana accident - Management emphasized the importance of the settlement agreement and its benefits for all parties involved [63] Question: Strategic review of Thompson and potential asset divestments - Management confirmed that Thompson is under review due to its lower returns compared to other opportunities [74] Question: Cash returns and buyback strategy - Management reiterated a balanced approach between dividends and buybacks, depending on cash flow generation [121] Question: Q1 volume trends and cost measures - Management indicated that Q1 performance is expected to be similar to last year, with ongoing cost optimization efforts [134][136]

Company Performance - VALE S.A. closed at $9.74, reflecting a -0.71% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.24% [1] - Over the past month, VALE's shares increased by 9.24%, outperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 4.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.37% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release is expected to show an EPS of $0.53, a decrease of 5.36% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is anticipated to be $10.08 billion, down 22.81% from the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for VALE S.A. reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses these estimate changes, indicates that revisions correlate with stock price performance [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - VALE S.A. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with a 0.33% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 5.3, slightly above the industry average of 5.27, and has a PEG ratio of 0.3, matching the industry average [6] Industry Context - The Mining - Iron industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 90, placing it in the top 36% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Group 1 - The company has been viewed positively due to its high returns to shareholders [1] - The analysis focuses on foreign equities, particularly in emerging markets, to aid investment decisions [1] Group 2 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in the shares of Vale through various financial instruments [2]

Core Viewpoint - There has been a significant bullish turnaround in commodity-sensitive stocks and country ETFs, particularly highlighted by the performance of the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which has increased over 17% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 Trust ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has risen more than 17% in 2025 [1] - This performance indicates a strong recovery in commodity-sensitive stocks and country ETFs [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The growth of the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) is notably higher than that of the S&P 500 Trust ETF, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. is anticipated to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024, with significant decreases compared to the previous year [1][4]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's sales is $10.08 billion, reflecting a 23% decrease from the same quarter last year [4]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by 13% over the past 60 days to 53 cents per share, indicating a 5.4% year-over-year decline [4]. Earnings Surprise History - Vale has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and exceeded it in the other two, resulting in an average negative surprise of 0.98% [5]. Production and Sales Performance - Iron ore production was approximately 85 million tons (Mt), down 4.6% year-over-year, as the company focuses on higher-margin products [7]. - Pellet production decreased by 7% year-over-year to 9.2 Mt, while total iron ore sales fell by 10% to 81.2 Mt [8]. - The average realized price for iron ore fines was $93 per ton, down 21.4% year-over-year, and for pellets, it was $143 per ton, down 12.5% [9]. Nickel and Copper Sales - Nickel sales were recorded at 47.1 thousand tons (kt), down 1.7% from the previous year, but above the consensus estimate of 45 kt [9]. - Copper sales reached 99 kt, a 1.5% increase year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 100 kt [10]. - The average realized price for copper operations was $9,187 per ton, up 15.7% year-over-year [10]. Revenue Drivers and Cost Pressures - Overall revenues are expected to benefit from higher copper sales volumes and prices, but this is likely offset by lower sales volumes and prices for iron ore and nickel [11]. - The company has faced rising input costs, particularly for diesel and freight, which have pressured margins, although cost-control measures may mitigate some of this impact [11]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Vale, with an Earnings ESP of -14.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [12][13]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Vale's shares have declined by 28.8%, slightly worse than the industry's decline of 28.5% [14].

VALE S.A. (VALE) closed the most recent trading day at $9.56, moving +0.95% from the previous trading session. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.67%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.38%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.98%.The the stock of company has risen by 11.41% in the past month, leading the Basic Materials sector's gain of 6.91% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.07%.Market participants will be closely following the financial results of VALE S.A. in its upcoming rel ...

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. reported a decline in iron ore production for Q4 2024, primarily due to a strategic shift towards higher-margin products, while overall production for the year met guidance and showed an increase compared to 2023 [1][2][5]. Iron Ore Production and Sales - Q4 2024 iron ore production was approximately 85 million tons, down 4.6% year-over-year, but full-year production reached 328 million tons, a 2% increase from 2023, marking the highest output since 2018 [1][2][5]. - The S11D mine achieved record production of 23.7 million tons in Q4, while the Brucutu site also saw its highest quarterly production since 2019 due to the commissioning of a new processing line [2]. - Iron ore fines sales in Q4 declined 10% year-over-year to 69.9 million tons, with total iron ore sales down 10% to 81.2 million tons, attributed to portfolio optimization [4][5]. Pellet Production - Pellet production decreased by 7% year-over-year to 9.2 million tons in Q4, mainly due to maintenance activities at the Vargem Grande plant, while full-year pellet production was up 1.2% to 36.9 million tons [3]. Copper Operations - Copper production in Q4 was 101.8 thousand tons, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, driven by enhanced performance at Salobo mines [6]. - Copper sales for Q4 rose 1.5% to 99 thousand tons, with full-year production up 6.6% to 348.2 thousand tons, exceeding guidance [7]. Nickel Production - Nickel production increased by 1.3% year-over-year to 45.5 thousand tons in Q4, while full-year production was down 3% to 159.9 thousand tons [9][10]. - Nickel sales decreased by 1.7% in Q4 to 47.1 thousand tons, with the average realized nickel price down 12% year-over-year [9]. Financial Performance - The average realized price for iron ore fines in Q4 was $93 per ton, down 21.4% year-over-year, while the average for 2024 was $95.3 per ton, an 11.8% decrease from 2023 [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's Q4 revenues is $10.03 billion, indicating a 23% year-over-year decline [11]. Future Guidance - Vale expects iron ore production in 2025 to be between 325-335 million tons, with copper production projected at 340-370 thousand tons and nickel output between 160-175 thousand tons [12].