Core Viewpoint - Copper is becoming a critical resource for mining companies, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence, power grids, and renewable energy, leading to increased competition among major mining firms for strategic positioning in copper production [1]. Group 1: Major Mining Companies' Performance - BHP, the world's largest copper mining company, reported a copper production of 2.014 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.9%. The company has raised its copper production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year to a range of 1.9 million to 2 million tons [2]. - Vale achieved a copper production of 382,400 tons in 2025, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, the highest level since 2018. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a production of 108,100 tons, a 6% increase, attributed to strong performance from its Salobo and Sossego operations [5][6]. - Rio Tinto's copper production reached 883,000 tons in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, exceeding its guidance of 860,000 to 875,000 tons [7]. Group 2: Strategic Investments and Future Plans - BHP is making a strategic investment in the Vicuña project in Argentina, with plans to invest up to $800 million in two significant copper mining projects, which are expected to be among the most important copper development projects in history [5]. - Vale aims to become a copper producer with an annual output of 1 million tons, with plans to double its copper production to around 700,000 tons by 2035 [7]. - Fortescue is actively pursuing copper production, having signed a binding agreement to acquire a 64% stake in Alta Copper, which aligns with its strategic focus on key minerals [8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Projections - Since 2025, copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price surpassing $14,500 per ton, reaching a historical high [9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will stabilize in 2026, with an average price of $11,400 per ton, while also noting a potential decrease in inventory levels outside the U.S. by approximately 450,000 tons [9]. - S&P forecasts that global copper demand will increase by 50% from 28 million tons at the end of 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, while supply is expected to lag, potentially leading to a 10 million ton shortfall by 2040 [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Vale's pro forma EBITDA reached $4.8 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by strong performance in Vale Base Metals [15] - The all-in cost for iron ore reached $54.3 per ton in Q4, averaging $54.2 per ton for 2025, reflecting a downward trajectory in costs [17][18] - Recurring free cash flow generation reached approximately $1.7 billion in Q4, more than double compared to the previous year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Iron ore production reached 336 million tons in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year, the highest level since 2018, driven by low capital-intensive projects [9] - Vale Base Metals achieved double-digit production growth in both copper and nickel, with copper production reaching 382,000 tons (10% increase year-on-year) and nickel production reaching 177,000 tons (11% increase year-on-year) [10] - Cost reductions were noted across all commodities, with copper all-in costs decreasing to -$900 per ton, the lowest in the business's history [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a 21% reduction in high potential incidents, reflecting improvements in safety culture [6] - A significant reduction in cash outflows related to reparations is expected in 2026, with an anticipated reduction of approximately $1.5 billion compared to 2025 [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vale's strategy focuses on operational excellence and adding high-quality growth projects, particularly in copper and iron ore, leveraging its unique endowment [5] - The Novo Carajás program aims to double copper output while enabling growth in high-quality iron ore [8] - The company emphasizes a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with long-term CapEx guidance below $6 billion [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, highlighting strong operational performance and the ability to exceed market expectations in shareholder remuneration [13][24] - The company is focused on maintaining a solid operational performance while accelerating value-accretive growth opportunities [23] Other Important Information - Vale announced $2.8 billion in dividends and interest on capital for 2025, reflecting a 16% dividend yield [20] - The company has made significant progress in reparation efforts, reaching 81% execution of the Brumadinho agreement [8] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Regarding the strong results from Vale Base Metals and cost performance - Management acknowledged the strong by-product credits influencing costs and discussed ongoing bottom-up initiatives to sustain improvements [27][30] Question: On the strategic value of copper assets and potential IPO discussions - Management highlighted the growth potential within the copper business and the focus on demonstrating operational excellence before considering capital market transactions [29][34] Question: About the decline in realized prices for iron ore and the current strategy - Management explained that the decline was due to lower market premiums and emphasized the importance of optimizing contribution margins across the supply chain [37][40] Question: On cash cost reduction strategies in the nickel business - Management discussed ongoing operational goals focused on asset integrity and reliability to achieve cash flow neutrality, even in lower price environments [38][44] Question: Regarding the impact of changes in Indonesian nickel licenses on the market - Management expressed cautious optimism about potential structural changes in the nickel market due to regulatory adjustments in Indonesia [51][52] Question: On the latest developments with Fábrica and Vega operations - Management reported limited impact from sediment overflow incidents and ongoing efforts to enhance resilience against climate change [57][59] Question: About the commercial strategy and iron ore pricing dynamics - Management clarified that blending strategies remain unaffected by competitors and discussed the resilience of premium pricing for flagship products [63][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Vale's pro forma EBITDA reached $4.8 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by strong performance in Vale Base Metals and favorable pricing conditions for copper and by-products [15] - The all-in cost for iron ore reached $54.3 per ton in Q4, averaging $54.2 per ton for 2025, reflecting a downward trajectory in C1 cash costs [17][18] - Recurring free cash flow generation reached approximately $1.7 billion in Q4, more than double compared to the previous year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Iron ore production reached 336 million tons in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year, driven by low capital-intensive projects and strong performance in Brucutu and S11D [9] - Vale Base Metals achieved double-digit production growth in both copper and nickel, with copper production reaching 382,000 tons (10% increase year-on-year) and nickel production reaching 177,000 tons (11% increase year-on-year) [10] - Cost reductions were achieved across all commodities, with copper all-in costs decreasing to -$0.90 per ton, the lowest in the business's history, and nickel all-in costs declining by 35% year-on-year to $9,000 per ton [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a decline in iron ore fines price realization due to lower market premiums and mix optimization, but premiums for flagship products remained resilient [41][42] - China continues to import record levels of iron ore despite indications of peak steel consumption, suggesting a complex market environment for iron ore pricing [78] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vale's strategy focuses on operational excellence and adding high-quality growth projects, particularly in copper and iron ore, with the Novo Carajás program aimed at doubling copper output [5][12] - The company is committed to disciplined capital allocation, with a long-term CapEx guidance below $6 billion, while also focusing on shareholder remuneration [12][22] - The management emphasized the importance of flexibility in product portfolio management to maximize value creation in the iron ore business [10][42] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver strong results in 2026, supported by operational discipline and efficiency initiatives [12][19] - The company is optimistic about the future, highlighting the essential role of mining in energy transition and AI, positioning Vale to play a key role in these developments [24] Other Important Information - Vale achieved a 21% reduction in high potential incidents, reflecting improvements in safety culture [6] - The company fulfilled commitments regarding tailings dams, achieving a 77% reduction in structures at any emergency level compared to 2020 [7] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Regarding the strong results from Vale Base Metals and cost performance - Management acknowledged the strong cost performance and discussed ongoing improvements and sustainability initiatives, emphasizing a focus on operational execution and cost discipline [30][31] Question: On the strategic value of copper assets and market recognition - Management highlighted the growth potential within Vale's copper assets and the importance of demonstrating operational excellence to gain market recognition [33][34] Question: About the dynamics of iron ore pricing and realized prices - Management explained the decline in realized prices was due to lower market premiums and emphasized the importance of optimizing contribution margins across the supply chain [40][42] Question: On nickel business cost reduction strategies - Management discussed the need for a track record of execution and highlighted specific initiatives aimed at reducing costs and improving asset reliability [43][49] Question: Updates on Fábrica and Viga operations and safety measures - Management reported limited impact from recent incidents and ongoing efforts to enhance resilience against climate change [57][59] Question: On the commercial strategy and iron ore pricing - Management clarified that blending strategies would not be negatively impacted by competitors and discussed the importance of maintaining flexible pricing strategies [66][68]

It include risks and uncertainties relating to the following : To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under "Forward -Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in Vale's annual report on Form 20 - F . " Disclaimer 2 Vale's 4Q25 Performance Feb. 13th, 2026 "This p ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Vale's pro forma EBITDA reached $4.8 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by strong performance in Vale Base Metals and favorable pricing conditions for copper and by-products [13][14] - The all-in cost for iron ore reached $54.3 per ton in Q4, averaging $54.2 per ton for 2025, reflecting a downward trajectory in C1 cash costs and gains from long-term affreightment strategy [16][20] - Recurring free cash flow generation reached approximately $1.7 billion in Q4, more than double compared to the previous year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Iron ore production reached 336 million tons in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year, driven by low capital-intensive projects and solid performance in Brucutu and S11D [7][9] - Vale Base Metals achieved double-digit production growth in both copper and nickel, with copper production reaching 382,000 tons (10% increase year-on-year) and nickel production reaching 177,000 tons (11% increase year-on-year) [9][10] - Cost reductions were noted across all commodities, with copper all-in costs decreasing to -$900 per ton, the lowest in the business's history, and nickel all-in costs declining by 35% year-on-year to $9,000 per ton [17][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates crude steel production in China for 2026 to remain at the same level as the previous year, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing [81] - The market is seeing a decline in premiums for iron ore fines, primarily due to lower market premiums and mix optimization, but the flagship products maintained resilient premiums [40][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vale's strategy focuses on operational excellence and adding high-quality growth projects, particularly in copper and iron ore, with the Novo Carajás program aimed at doubling copper output [4][6] - The company emphasizes a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with a long-term CapEx guidance below $6 billion, while also ensuring attractive shareholder returns [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, highlighting strong operational performance and the ability to deliver on guidance [7][22] - The company is focused on unlocking value from existing assets while positioning for growth opportunities, particularly in the context of energy transition and AI [23][24] Other Important Information - Vale achieved a 21% reduction in high potential incidents, reflecting improvements in safety culture [5] - The company has made significant progress on reparation efforts, reaching 81% execution of the Brumadinho agreement and disbursing BRL 73 billion under the Mariana agreement [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the strong results from Vale Base Metals and cost performance - Management acknowledged the strong by-product credits influencing costs and highlighted ongoing bottom-up initiatives to improve cost performance [30][31] Question: On the strategic value of copper assets and potential IPO discussions - Management noted the market's growing appreciation for the base metals business and emphasized the importance of demonstrating growth potential before considering any capital market transactions [34][36] Question: About the dynamics of iron ore pricing and realized prices - Management explained that the decline in realized prices was due to lower market premiums and emphasized the importance of optimizing contribution margin across the supply chain [40][42] Question: On nickel cash costs and operational goals - Management detailed ongoing initiatives to reduce costs in the nickel business, focusing on asset integrity and reliability to achieve cash flow breakeven [45][50] Question: Regarding developments at Fábrica and Vega operations - Management reported limited impact from sediment overflow incidents and ongoing efforts to enhance resilience against climate change [59][61] Question: On the status of restricted AUM and ESG improvements - Management indicated that approximately $1.5 trillion of assets have been unlocked since the incidents, with ongoing efforts to improve ESG ratings and investor relations [63][64]

Market Movements - U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.37%, S&P 500 futures down 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.31% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.43% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil is down 0.78% at $62.35 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.55% at $67.15 per barrel [2] - OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil production increases starting in April, with negotiations continuing before the March 1 meeting [2] Economic Data - The U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year increase slowing to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, marking the lowest level since May 2025 [4] - Both overall CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, consistent with the previous month's increase [4] Software Sector - The software sector is experiencing significant sell-offs, but this presents a buying opportunity according to Byron Deeter from Bessemer Venture Partners, who notes that software stocks are in a state of severe overselling [5] - There is an anticipated divergence among software companies based on growth prospects and fundamentals, rather than a uniform market rebound [5] Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - JPMorgan suggests shorting two-year U.S. Treasuries, citing strong economic fundamentals that may hinder the Federal Reserve from making significant rate cuts [6] - The upcoming inflation report is expected to provide new insights into the Fed's future actions, with any signs of easing price pressures likely to boost demand for short-term bonds [6] Gold Market - ANZ Bank has raised its second-quarter gold price target to $5,800 per ounce, viewing the recent price pullback as a buying opportunity amid ongoing structural support [7] - Major Wall Street banks are showing a consensus bullish sentiment on precious metals, with Goldman Sachs targeting $5,400 and UBS and JPMorgan setting even higher targets of $6,200 and $6,300 respectively [7] Corporate Earnings - Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 revenue of $7.01 billion, slightly down 2% year-over-year but above market expectations, with a positive outlook for Q2 revenue of approximately $7.65 billion [10][11] - Roku's Q4 revenue grew 16.1% year-over-year to $1.395 billion, exceeding expectations, with a positive outlook for the next quarter [10][11] - Airbnb's Q4 revenue reached $2.78 billion, up 12% year-over-year, also surpassing analyst expectations, with a positive growth forecast for 2026 [12] - Vale's Q4 revenue increased 9% to $11.06 billion, but the company reported a significant net loss due to asset impairments [13] - NatWest's Q4 pre-tax profit rose 30% to £1.94 billion, exceeding expectations, with plans to leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency [14]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.37%, S&P 500 futures down 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.31% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.43% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.78% at $62.35 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.55% at $67.15 per barrel, amid OPEC+ discussions on potential production increases starting in April [3] Economic Data and Predictions - The US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year increase slowing to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, marking the lowest level since May 2025 [5] - Both overall CPI and core CPI are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month [5] Company News - Application Materials (AMAT.US) reported Q1 revenue of $7.01 billion, slightly down 2% year-on-year but above market expectations of $6.86 billion, with a Non-GAAP EPS of $2.38, exceeding the forecast of $2.21 [10][11] - Roku (ROKU.US) exceeded Q4 revenue expectations with a 16.1% year-on-year increase to $1.395 billion, and a GAAP EPS of $0.53, surpassing analyst consensus by 88.8% [11] - Airbnb (ABNB.US) reported Q4 revenue of $2.78 billion, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, and provided an optimistic revenue outlook for 2026 [12] - Vale (VALE.US) reported Q4 revenue of $11.06 billion, up 9% year-on-year, but faced a significant net loss of $3.844 billion due to a $3.5 billion impairment on nickel assets [13] - NatWest (NWG.US) reported a 30% increase in pre-tax profit to £1.94 billion ($2.6 billion), exceeding analyst expectations, and plans to leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns over oversupply in the iron ore market, driven by increasing inventories in China and higher-than-expected production from Vale [1] - Iron ore prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with futures dropping 1.7% to $97.90 per ton, potentially marking the longest losing streak since June if it continues for a fifth week [1] - Chinese port inventories of steelmaking raw materials rose by 0.5% week-on-week to approximately 161 million tons, marking an 11-week increase and nearing historical highs, indicating that supply growth has outpaced demand [1] Group 2 - Vale reported an iron ore production of 90.4 million tons in the last quarter, exceeding analyst expectations and annual production guidance, surpassing competitor Rio Tinto [1] - Increased supply from Australia and Brazil, coupled with weak demand, continues to exert downward pressure on iron ore prices, which have declined by approximately 7% this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Vale delivered strong performance, meeting or exceeding all guidance targets while continuing to advance strategic priorities aimed at reinforcing long-term vision [1][6] Operational Performance - All business segments achieved strong operational and cost performance, with all guidance targets met in 2025 [7] - In Q4 2025, sales performance was robust, with iron ore, copper, and nickel sales increasing by 5% (4 million tons), 8% (8,000 tons), and 5% (3,000 tons) year-over-year, respectively [2][7] - Iron ore and copper production reached the highest levels since 2018, with nickel production achieving double-digit growth [1][6] Pricing and Cost Metrics - The average realized price for iron ore fines was $95.4 per ton, up 1% quarter-over-quarter and 3% year-over-year [2][7] - The realized price for copper was $11,003 per ton, reflecting a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 20% year-over-year increase [2][7] - The realized price for nickel was $15,015 per ton, down 3% quarter-over-quarter and down 7% year-over-year [2][7] Cost Efficiency - In 2025, the C1 cash cost for iron ore was $21.3 per ton, a 2% decrease year-over-year, marking the second consecutive year of cost reduction [2][7] - Total iron ore costs in 2025 were $54.2 per ton, down 3% year-over-year [2][7] - In Q4 2025, total copper costs were negative $881 per ton, and nickel costs were $9,001 per ton, down 35% year-over-year [3][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA was $4.8 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase, reflecting increased contributions from base metals operations [3][8] - Free cash flow was $1.7 billion, an increase of $900 million year-over-year, driven by EBITDA growth and lower net financial expenses [5][10] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $2 billion, aligning with the annual guidance of $5.5 billion [4][9] - The total net debt at the end of the quarter was $15.6 billion, a decrease of $1 billion quarter-over-quarter [5][10] - According to the company's dividend policy, $1.8 billion in dividends and capital interest will be paid in March, with an additional $1 billion in special returns paid in January [5][10]

Group 1 - Vale reported Q3 revenue of $11.06 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $10.86 billion, but posted a net loss of $3.844 billion, contrasting with analyst forecasts of a $2.7 billion profit and a loss of $694 million in the same period last year [1][2] - The company's Q4 Pro Forma EBITDA was $4.834 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $4.588 billion, up 21%, primarily driven by the performance of the Vale Base Metals segment [2] - Vale's Q4 capital expenditures were $2 billion, aligning with the annual guidance of $5.5 billion, and the recurring free cash flow reached $1.7 billion, an increase of $900 million year-over-year [2] Group 2 - All business segments achieved strong operational and cost performance, meeting the established guidance for 2025 [3] - In Q4 2025, iron ore, copper, and nickel sales increased by 5% (+4 million tons), 8% (+8 thousand tons), and 5% (+3 thousand tons) year-over-year, respectively, while annual sales grew by 3% (+8 million tons), 12% (+41 thousand tons), and 11% (+18 thousand tons) [3] - Vale completed a buyback of 23% of its circulating participatory bonds, totaling $723 million, marking a significant milestone in financial liability management [3] Group 3 - In the iron ore segment, Vale is advancing the commissioning of the Capanema and Vargem Grande 1 projects, expected to reach full production in the first and second half of 2026, respectively [3] - The Serra Sul +20 project is 84% complete and is anticipated to commence operations in the second half of 2026 [3] - In the base metals segment, the Bacaba project has commenced construction after receiving permits, expected to produce an average of 50,000 tons of copper annually over an 8-year mine life, with total capital expenditures planned at $290 million [4]