Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report a significant decline in fourth-quarter earnings for 2024, with a consensus estimate of $1.58 per share, reflecting a 36.3% decrease from the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is projected at $87.1 billion, indicating a 3.3% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - XOM has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.9% [3] Earnings Expectations - The company has an Earnings ESP of -2.38% and currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a lower likelihood of beating earnings estimates this quarter [4] - Factors affecting earnings include weaker oil prices, which could reduce upstream earnings by $0.5 billion to $0.9 billion sequentially [5] Market Conditions - The average WTI spot prices for October, November, and December 2024 were $71.99, $69.95, and $70.12 per barrel, respectively, compared to $85.64, $77.69, and $71.90 per barrel in the same months last year [5] - A lower industry refining margin is expected to impact earnings from the Energy Products segment by $0.3 billion to $0.7 billion compared to the previous quarter [6] Stock Performance - XOM's stock has increased by 9.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry average rise of 7.4% [8] - The company's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.43, which is above the industry average of 4.05, indicating potential overvaluation [9] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances XOM's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, known for low production costs [12] - The company is investing in alternative energy projects, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, which may offer growth opportunities but require significant capital [13] Investment Outlook - Given the current market conditions and long-term growth prospects, it may be advisable for investors to hold XOM stock [14]

Group 1: Exxon Mobil's Exploration Activities - Exxon Mobil Corporation has commenced exploratory drilling offshore Cyprus in partnership with QatarEnergy to access potential natural gas reserves [1] - The drilling operations will focus on the Electra and Pegasus prospects, with drilling at the Electra prospect starting last week [1] - ExxonMobil secured exploration licenses in Cyprus in 2017, joining other international energy companies like Chevron, Eni, and TotalEnergies in the region [3] Group 2: Eastern Mediterranean Gas Reserves - The Eastern Mediterranean region has gained attention from oil and gas producers due to significant natural gas discoveries, including ExxonMobil's discovery at the Glaucoma well in 2019 [2] - Following geopolitical tensions, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there has been an increased effort to explore natural gas in the region to reduce reliance on Russian energy [2] Group 3: Cyprus' Energy Ambitions - Cyprus aims to establish itself as a reliable alternative gas supplier for the European Union, despite having modest offshore gas finds compared to Egypt and Israel [4] - The country has not yet put any gas into production, but it is actively pursuing this goal [4] Group 4: Regional Challenges - Drilling activities in Cypriot waters face challenges due to territorial disputes, particularly with Turkey, which claims rights over the continental shelf in the area [5] - The Turkish Defence Ministry has closely monitored ExxonMobil's drilling activities, which are in disputed waters [5] Group 5: Collaboration with Egypt - Cyprus' energy minister is in discussions with Egypt's Petroleum Ministry to explore collaboration on joint infrastructure projects, potentially forming an energy corridor to Europe [6]

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Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has lowered the price forecast for Exxon Mobil Corporation from $125 to $123 ahead of the company's fourth-quarter results, maintaining a Neutral rating [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Estimates - Exxon Mobil anticipates a reduction in fourth-quarter upstream earnings by $(0.9) billion to $(0.5) billion due to changes in oil prices [2]. - The company projects that variations in industry margins will impact energy products earnings by $(0.7) billion to $(0.3) billion, specialty products earnings by $(0.1) billion to $0.1 billion, and chemical products earnings by $(0.5) billion to $(0.3) billion [3]. - Revised EPS estimates for 2024-2026 are $7.63 (from $7.91), $8.17 (from $8.35), and $9.97 (from $9.71), reflecting adjustments in commodity prices and refining margins [4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - The company benefits from strong execution, shareholder returns (~8% capital returns yield in 2025/2026), and premium Upstream assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG), but its relative valuation keeps the analyst on the sidelines [2]. - Investors can gain exposure to Exxon Mobil through Vanguard Energy ETF VDE and SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector XLE [4]. Group 3: Market Reaction - XOM shares are down 1.28% at $108.74 as of the last check [4].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended December 2024, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Exxon’s quarterly earnings is $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 36.3%. Revenues are projected to be $87.12 billion, which is a 3.3% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.77% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Exxon is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.38%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Exxon was expected to post earnings of $1.91 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of $1.92, resulting in a surprise of +0.52%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [12][13]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock movement, and Exxon does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings surprise [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is set to report its next earnings on January 31, with an estimated earnings per share of $1.79 and projected revenue of $88.23 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - The upcoming earnings report is expected to bring volatility to Exxon Mobil's stock as investors analyze the fundamental details [1] - Historical earnings data shows a long-term earnings per share trend for Exxon Mobil [1] - Quarterly revenue figures for Exxon Mobil are also available for review [1] Group 2: Options and Dividends - Options for Exxon Mobil are available, expiring on January 31, which may attract stock options traders [1] - The current dividend yield for Exxon Mobil stands at 3.55%, with a history of dividend payments available for investors [2] - Dividend investors are encouraged to explore additional top dividend and monthly dividend-paying stock ideas [2]

Valuation and Market Confidence - ExxonMobil's stock is trading at a premium with a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 6.64x, compared to the industry average of 4.19x, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [1] - The company's stock has risen 20% over the past year, outperforming the industry's composite stocks, which rose 15.9% [13] Growth Engines and Strategic Assets - ExxonMobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, adding 1.4 million net acres in the Permian Basin and an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent resource [4] - The company aims to double Permian Basin production to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBoE/d) by 2030 [5] - By 2030, more than 60% of ExxonMobil's upstream production will come from advantaged assets like the Permian Basin, Guyana, and liquefied natural gas, which offer lower costs and higher returns [6] Financial Strength and Integrated Model - ExxonMobil has a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 13.34%, significantly lower than the industry average of 22.36% [8] - The company's integrated business model, including refining and chemical businesses, provides protection during oil price declines [7] Cash Flow and Shareholder Value - ExxonMobil plans to generate $165 billion in surplus cash flow from 2025 to 2030, supporting increased shareholder distributions through dividends and share repurchases [11] Clean Energy and Sustainability Commitments - The company plans to invest $30 billion in low-carbon solutions from 2025 to 2030, focusing on carbon capture, storage networks, and hydrogen facilities, including the world's largest low-carbon hydrogen plant in Baytown [12] - 65% of these investments target third-party emission reductions, aligning with global energy transition goals [12] Industry Comparison - Chevron Corporation has a slightly higher debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.13%, while BP plc's ratio is much higher at 41.82% [10] Uncertainties and Challenges - ExxonMobil's reliance on fossil fuels makes it vulnerable to regulatory challenges and market shifts amid the global energy transition [15] - The company's $140 billion investment plan in major projects and Permian Basin development by 2030 could become a financial strain if energy prices do not meet expectations [16]

Group 1: Natural Gas Discovery - Exxon Mobil Corporation has made a significant natural gas discovery off Egypt's Mediterranean coast, which is crucial for the global energy sector [1] - The Nefertari-1 exploratory well in the North Marakia Block revealed gas-bearing reservoirs, and ExxonMobil will continue to evaluate the results [2] - The Eastern Mediterranean has become a hotspot for natural gas exploration, with the region's proximity to energy-hungry markets enhancing the economic appeal of discoveries [3] Group 2: Egypt's Energy Landscape - Egypt's gas production has declined to its lowest level since 2017, leading to increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [4] - The Egyptian government has launched a repayment plan to restore investor confidence and aims to return to LNG exports by the end of 2027 [5] - The Mediterranean Sea is increasingly important for natural gas discoveries, and ExxonMobil's success could attract further investments to enhance Egypt's status as a gas exporter [6]

The latest trading session saw Exxon Mobil (XOM) ending at $111.51, denoting a +1.63% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 1.83%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 1.65%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 2.45%.Heading into today, shares of the oil and natural gas company had gained 1.58% over the past month, outpacing the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 7.35% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.31% in that time.The investment community will ...