Summary of China Jushi Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb 47,918 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb 13.60 - **Current Price (as of April 7, 2025)**: Rmb 11.97 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb 8.80 - 13.25 Key Financial Highlights - **1Q25 Net Profit**: Expected to double YoY to Rmb 701-736 million, exceeding expectations [1] - **Excluding Non-Recurring Items**: Net profit increased by 320-350% YoY to Rmb 538-589 million [1] - **Earnings Drivers**: Higher prices for roving and electronic fabric, increased sales volume driven by strong downstream demand, particularly from wind power and automotive sectors [1] Industry Dynamics - **Roving Price Increases**: Implemented due to improved industry fundamentals, with prices for wind power roving up over 10% [2] - **Volume Growth**: Anticipated 6% YoY increase in volumes, supported by new production lines at the Jiujiang production base [2] - **Production Line Update**: The second 100kt production line in Jiujiang commenced operations ahead of schedule in April [2] - **Cost Management**: Production costs are expected to decrease by 3% YoY, contributing to earnings recovery [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 14,876 million - 2024: Rmb 18,057 million - 2025: Rmb 19,618 million - 2026: Rmb 21,211 million [4] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 4,609 million - 2024: Rmb 4,081 million - 2025: Rmb 4,860 million - 2026: Rmb 6,097 million [4] - **EPS Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 0.76 - 2024: Rmb 0.54 - 2025: Rmb 0.67 - 2026: Rmb 0.90 [4] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected demand, decreasing raw material prices [9] - **Downside Risks**: Global demand slowdown, rising raw material prices, industry overcapacity [9] Analyst Insights - **Earnings Momentum**: The company is expected to maintain strong earnings momentum throughout 2025 due to favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies [2] - **Investment Thesis**: The combination of higher prices, increased volumes, and lower production costs positions China Jushi for a solid earnings recovery [2] Conclusion China Jushi's strong financial performance in 1Q25, driven by favorable market conditions and operational improvements, suggests a positive outlook for the company. The anticipated growth in revenue and earnings, alongside effective cost management, reinforces the investment thesis for the stock.

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi - **Industry**: Glass Fiber Industry Key Points Impact of US Tariffs - The direct impact of US tariffs on China Jushi's performance is minimal, with exports accounting for 25% of total sales in 2024, and only 5% to 6% of overall demand being affected by tariffs [3][5] - The company expects a potential performance impact of approximately 100 million yuan if tariff costs are shared equally between Jushi and overseas customers [3] - Jushi plans to leverage its Egyptian facility to mitigate tariff impacts, as it is more economically viable to export from Egypt to the US [3][5] Market Performance and Trends - The glass fiber market showed strong performance in Q1 2025 due to several factors, including no inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and clear demand for wind power installations [6] - The market faces uncertainties in H2 2025, particularly from wind power demand and export challenges due to US tariffs [7] Wind Power Fiber Market - The wind power fiber market is highly concentrated, with a CR3 of 100%, dominated by Jushi, SMIC, and OC [8] - Jushi has made significant breakthroughs in this sector and can adjust production schedules effectively [8] Export Expectations - Export growth is expected to slow to single digits in 2025, down from 10%-13% in 2024, with wind power and new energy vehicles being the main export products [9] European Infrastructure Demand - Increased infrastructure demand in Europe, driven by significant investment plans from Germany and the EU, is expected to boost demand for excavation equipment [10] - Jushi has a market exposure of approximately 12%-13% in Europe, with its Egyptian plant contributing about 20% to total profits [10] Inventory and Price Trends - As of March 2025, glass fiber inventory decreased to 797,000 tons, indicating a healthy market environment with limited supply pressure [11] - The net profit per ton is expected to exceed 800 yuan for the year, supported by stable demand and limited supply [11] Electronic Fabric Market - The production of electronic fabric is projected to increase from 875 million meters last year to between 900 million and 1.1 billion meters this year, with price increases expected due to limited supply [12] Overall Performance Expectations - For 2025, Jushi anticipates total revenue of 3.2 to 3.3 billion yuan, driven by stable demand and potential price increases in high-end products [13]

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb51,841 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb12.95 - **Price Target**: Rmb13.60, indicating a 5% upside potential [6][6] Key Takeaways Price Increases and Contracts - Price increases for wind power roving and thermal plastic products were announced in June last year, with full execution expected from January 1, 2025, due to annual contracts [2][2][8][8] - The price increase for wind power roving is reported to be greater than 10% [8][8] Production Adjustments - A 20% cut in electronic fabric capacity was implemented starting from Q4 2024, resulting in a reduction of approximately 80 million meters in total production [3][3] - All suspended capacity resumed production in March 2025, which is expected to improve utilization and cost efficiency, potentially lowering production costs by approximately Rmb0.2 per meter [3][3] Growth Expectations - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-7% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with plans for an additional 400,000 tons in Egypt and 100,000 tons in the US, alongside 1GW of renewable energy [4][4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY24: Rmb18,057 million - FY25: Rmb19,618 million - FY26: Rmb21,211 million [6][6] - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is Rmb0.54, with projections of Rmb0.67 for FY25 and Rmb0.90 for FY26 [6][6] Valuation and Risks - The valuation methodology is based on discounted cash flow with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1% and a steady-state growth rate of 4% [9][9] - Risks to upside include better-than-expected demand and decreasing raw material prices, while downside risks involve a global demand slowdown and rising raw material prices [11][11] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on cost reduction strategies to achieve a gross profit target of Rmb1 per meter for electronic fabric [8][8] - The average daily trading value of the stock is Rmb344 million, indicating active trading interest [6][6] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning.

Summary of the Conference Call for China Jushi Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to experience significant changes from 2024 to 2025, primarily driven by fluctuations in supply-side product prices [3] - In March 2024, companies initiated a joint price increase, enhancing product value, with prices for Yushan rising from 3,100 RMB/ton to 3,700 RMB/ton by the end of the year [3] - By 2025, the national factory price is projected to increase by approximately 100 RMB on top of the 3,700 RMB baseline [3] - Demand growth is anticipated in segmented areas such as wind power, new energy vehicles, and high-end electronics driven by AI technology [3][5] Company Performance - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, has maintained a growth trend in revenue since 2010, despite a decline in 2023 due to weakened demand [3][7] - The company is expected to gradually recover its revenue in 2024 as supply-side competition eases [3][7] - The business structure shows that over 82% of revenue comes from roving and products, with significant growth in overseas markets through exports to Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [3][8] Financial Metrics - From 2022 to 2024, China Jushi's profitability was pressured by industry supply-demand dynamics, with gross and net profit margins declining [10] - However, margins are expected to recover in 2024 as product value and downstream demand improve, with operating cash flow showing a net inflow [10] - The gross profit margin hit a near ten-year low of 20.13% in Q1 2024 but is projected to improve as demand recovers [10] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Fiberglass inventory surged from 20,000 tons in 2018 to approximately 90,000 tons by Q1 2024 due to weak demand and new project launches [11] - Price increases for fiberglass products are expected to continue, with direct yarn prices rising significantly to around 3,800 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 [12] - The demand for fiberglass is projected to remain elastic in 2025, supported by growth in wind power, automotive, and construction sectors [5][12] Market Dynamics - The global fiberglass market is characterized by high concentration, with the top six companies holding over 70% of the capacity [16] - China Jushi holds a 24% market share in the electronic yarn segment, with significant growth expected in high-end applications [17][19] - The company has a competitive edge in high-end products, with 85% of its offerings being high-end, and maintains a cost advantage over peers [19] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is anticipated, with projections of 192 billion RMB and 208 billion RMB for the current and next year, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.6% and 8.1% [20] - Net profit is expected to reach 30 billion RMB and 35.6 billion RMB, indicating growth of 47.6% and 18.3% [20] - Overall, China Jushi is well-positioned to benefit from recovering demand in wind power, new energy vehicles, and AI applications, with limited new supply expected to enhance profitability [20]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Jushi Co., Ltd. and the Fiberglass Industry Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry has been experiencing a downward trend since 2020, characterized by declining demand and shrinking profit margins. Many companies have seen revenue declines and significant stock price drops. Despite the stock price declines, valuations for many companies remain high. Some lower-tier companies are facing cash flow pressures, with increased merger and acquisition activity noted during the most challenging times in 2024 [3][4][7]. Key Points on China Jushi Co., Ltd. - China Jushi is expected to benefit from an improving market environment and its competitive advantages. The company’s scale and state-owned enterprise background allow it to gain from market de-involution. The unexpected growth in wind power demand is also supporting its business development. The net profit for 2025 is projected to reach 3.5 billion yuan, up from 3 billion yuan in 2024 [4][12]. - The fiberglass production lines require continuous operation for 8-10 years once started. Companies are cautious in adjusting supply, opting to delay ignition plans or postpone the resumption of production lines to optimize supply. An estimated 700,000 tons of effective supply is expected to be added in 2025, with demand growth of about 600,000 tons, leading to a stable supply-demand situation [4][9]. - The current valuation of China Jushi is relatively reasonable, with a PE ratio close to 15 times and a PB ratio of about 1.6 times, which is low compared to historical levels. If the company achieves a net profit of over 5 billion yuan in the future, its valuation will become more attractive, thus recommending investment in China Jushi [4][15]. - China Jushi holds over 40% market share in the domestic fiberglass market. As its market share increases, the company is focusing more on profitability. During industry-wide price increases, China Jushi, due to its market position and scale effects, stands to benefit the most [4][12]. - In 2025, China Jushi achieved price increases in the roving sector, particularly in wind power roving and short-term thermal products. The electronic fabric shipment volume also increased, with an expected contribution of 0.5 to 0.6 yuan net profit per meter, totaling around 1.1 billion meters, contributing over 500 million yuan in net profit [4][13][14]. Industry Pricing Trends - The fiberglass prices have been on the rise since the first half of 2024, continuing into 2025. This price increase is not limited to fiberglass but also includes cement and other construction materials. Cement prices saw a significant increase of 100 yuan in October last year, with multiple rounds of price hikes observed since March this year. These trends indicate a narrowing decline in demand and a lack of capacity for companies to engage in price wars, thus driving price increases [5][6]. - The sustainability of price increases is closely related to the competitive landscape of the industry. In the fiberglass sector, the top eight companies hold over 80% market share, primarily state-owned enterprises, which have profit assessment requirements. This structure supports the successful implementation of price increases [6][10]. Future Outlook - The fiberglass industry is expected to see significant supply-demand improvements and potential price increases in 2026, driven by the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the gradual implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. New capacity is anticipated to be released, which will take time to materialize [10][11]. - Despite the cyclical nature of the market, China Jushi's growth potential remains significant. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.5 billion yuan in 2025, up from 2.1 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong profitability [15]. Recommendations - Investment in China Jushi is recommended based on its market position, competitive advantages, and the expected upward trend in the fiberglass industry. The current market conditions suggest that now is a rational time to invest rather than waiting for potential future price increases [16]. Additional Insights - The demand for fiberglass in photovoltaic frames is expected to face challenges in achieving large-scale growth in 2025, with production likely limited to around 100,000 tons due to various constraints [21]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to maintain a strong demand outlook, with expectations of sustained growth despite potential fluctuations in installation volumes [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding China Jushi Co., Ltd. and the broader fiberglass industry, highlighting the current challenges, future opportunities, and investment recommendations.

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Overall Performance**: The company's performance is on an upward trend, with sales targets for the year expected to exceed the board's annual expectations. The sales volume target of 3 million tons achieved in the semi-annual report was met, and prices have been stable and rising since the second quarter [1]. 2. **Supply and Demand Balance**: The industry's supply has increased compared to previous years, but the overall inventory level is not high. The volume is expected to catch up in the fourth quarter, with the third quarter being a low point due to price increases and insufficient demand [2]. 3. **Price Trends**: Prices have been stable and rising, although they have not yet reached a reasonable level. The overall trend is upward [1]. 4. **Industry Supply Control**: The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [12]. 5. **Supply and Demand Match**: The industry's supply increase is expected to be around 15% in a normal year, which is roughly matched by demand. In 2025, there are some structural factors, such as the expected good performance of wind sand and hot water sand, which may affect prices [13]. Product Pricing and Demand 1. **Long-term Price of High-end Products**: The long-term price of high-end products will be implemented throughout 2025, but the specific price has not yet been agreed with customers. The price will be adjusted based on the new price once the agreement is reached [8]. 2. **Price Transmission**: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 3. **Market Demand**: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. 4. **Electronic Material**: The demand for electronic materials is expected to increase gradually due to the expansion of application fields such as PCB, industrial applications, and smart applications [6]. 5. **New Production Capacity**: The new production capacity of electronic materials will not be added in 2025, and the existing capacity will not be significantly increased. The expansion of the industry is relatively slow, and the inventory level is not high, which may lead to price elasticity in 2025 [7]. Industry Supply and Demand 1. **Supply Concerns**: There are concerns about supply in the industry, with the main risk factor being supply. The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [11, 12]. 2. **Price Stability**: The company expects price stability in 2025, with prices for high-end products remaining stable and prices for cover glass and hot melt increasing slightly [13]. 3. **Price Transmission**: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 4. **Market Demand**: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. Other Key Points 1. **Tariff Hike Expectations**: The impact of potential tariff hikes in the US is uncertain, but the company has several plans to mitigate the impact, including further price transmission to customers, exporting to countries with no tariff barriers, and building factories in other regions [20]. 2. **Export Growth**: The company expects export growth to continue in 2025, but the specific growth rate has not been disclosed [21]. 3. **Export Tax Refund**: There is no information about the possibility of reducing the export tax refund rate for copper, aluminum, and other products, including glass fiber [21]. 4. **New Production Capacity**: The company plans to build new production capacity for electronic materials in 2026, but the specific details have not been disclosed [23]. 5. **Research and Development**: The company is developing new products and improving cost competitiveness to expand the market [24]. 6. **Price Bottom**: The price of electronic materials is at a relatively low level, and the company expects it to start rising in the future [25]. 7. **Market Demand Growth**: The growth rate of market demand for electronic materials is expected to slow down in 2025 compared to 2024, with a growth rate of a few percentage points [26]. 8. **Lightweight Frame**: The company expects the lightweight frame market to grow in 2025, with a growth rate of 100% compared to 2024. The main challenge is to improve the efficiency of material manufacturers and the acceptance of lightweight frame materials by component manufacturers [27]. 9. **Long-term Incentive Plan**: The company plans to explore and implement a long-term incentive plan to motivate employees [29]. 10. **Price Expectations**: The company expects prices to remain stable in the first half of 2025, with price increases for mid-to-high-end products [36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to China Jushi with a 12-month target price of Rmb 11.45, while the stock price on January 15, 2025, was Rmb 11.57 [4][5][23]. Core Insights - Management is cautiously optimistic about the glass fiber market in 2025, expecting slight price increases and continued high sales growth [1][2]. - The company anticipates that electronic fabric prices will improve in 2025 due to better demand and low channel inventory, aiming for a production target of 1 billion meters of electronic fabric [2]. - The company has paused domestic capacity expansion for roving yarn and is exploring opportunities for overseas production, citing low profitability in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the glass fiber market in 2025, with expectations of price increases for electronic fabrics and stable demand for roving yarn [1][2]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to produce 1 billion meters of electronic fabric in 2025, up from approximately 900 million meters in 2024, with an expected increase in unit net profit by Rmb 0.2-0.3 per square meter [2]. - Domestic new capacity construction for roving yarn has been halted, while the company is seeking opportunities for overseas expansion [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial projections indicating a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios from 2024 to 2026 [1]. - Revenue and profit forecasts show a slight recovery in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb 2.13 billion in 2024 to Rmb 2.27 billion in 2025 [6].

Key Points General Information - **Purpose of the Call**: The call is exclusively for clients on the white list of Guolian Securities Research Institute. It does not constitute investment advice and participants should make their own investment decisions and bear their own risks. Guolian Securities assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by participants due to the use of the call content [1]. Industry and Company Specifics - **Industry**: The specific industry or company involved is not mentioned in the provided content. - **Core Views and Arguments**: No core views or arguments are presented in the provided content. - **Other Important Content**: No other important content is provided in the given content.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, 80% of multinational companies achieved their performance targets, indicating strong resilience in the global economy [8] - Revenue growth in the China region for multinational companies has gradually rebounded since Q2 2023, reaching 12.1% in Q1 2024, although the revenue share has declined over the past two years [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Companies in the consumer discretionary, pharmaceuticals, and TMT sectors show strong willingness to increase spending [9] - Capital expenditure intentions are strong among companies, particularly in sectors expecting demand recovery, such as consumer discretionary and healthcare [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall sentiment towards the Chinese market remains optimistic, with companies recognizing the vast potential despite concerns over consumer confidence and policy effectiveness [9] - Semiconductor giants like ASML and QUALCOMM highlight significant demand for high-end chips from China, which continues to drive the industry [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Multinational companies are optimistic about the opportunities in the Chinese market, with a focus on the recovery of consumer confidence and the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies [9] - Companies are increasing capital expenditures in anticipation of demand recovery, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and healthcare [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses optimism for the second half of the year, despite uncertainties from geopolitical issues and elections, indicating that these factors have limited impact on operational confidence [9] - Companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance productivity and reduce costs [24][27] Other Important Information - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive significant increases in capital expenditures, particularly in the information technology sector [10] - Companies are adopting various cost control measures, including optimizing operations and investing in technology to enhance efficiency [24][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for capital expenditures in the coming year? - Companies are generally increasing capital expenditures, with many prioritizing investments in high-growth areas and infrastructure to support demand recovery [10] Question: How are companies addressing cost control? - Many companies are focusing on reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency through technology and process optimization [24][27]