从天气温度和资金到位看 3 月周期旺季切换 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 ——建筑行业第 388 期周报 两会国家要求实施更加积极的财政政策，确保财政政策持续用力、更加 给力。(1)2025 年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排、比上年提高 1 个百分点，赤 字规模 5.66 万亿元、比上年增加 1.6 万亿元。一般公共预算支出规模 29.7 万亿元、比上年增加 1.2 万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比 上年增加 3000 亿元。(2)拟发行特别国债 5000 亿元，支持国有大型商业 银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元、比上年增加 5000 亿元，重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方政府 拖欠企业账款等。2025 年合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元、比上 年增加 2.9 万亿元，财政支出强度明显加大。 两会国家要求要加快各项资金下达拨付，尽快形成实际支出。(1)两会国 家要求稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，加力推进清理拖欠企业账款工作， 落实解决拖欠企业账款问题长效机制。(2)2025 年前 2 个月全国共发行地 方债券 1.86 万亿元、同比增加 ...

强化能耗考核，积极稳妥推进"双碳"工作 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 ——公用事业行业周报（2025.3.3-2025.3.7） | [table_Authors] 于鸿光(分析师) | 孙辉贤(分析师) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | Table_subIndustry] [细分行业评级 | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.co | | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | | m | | | | | 登记编号 S0880522020001 | S0880524080012 | S0880123070143 | | 本报告导读： 2025 年《政府工作报告》预期用电增速高于 GDP 增速，单位能耗考核目标强化； 指出"健全绿色消费激励机制"、"积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和"。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 公用事业《国七标准制定在即，尾气催化剂 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on A-shares and financial style for investment allocation [4][39]. Core Insights - The global asset allocation strategy has achieved an annualized return of 22.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.44, and a projected annualized return of 70% for 2025 [4][21]. - The A-share sector rotation strategy has an annualized return of 21.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.89, and has outperformed the Wind All A index by 165.3% cumulatively [4][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in enhancing the effectiveness of asset allocation models and sector rotation strategies [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro-Friendly Scoring Indicators - The report utilizes a macro-friendly scoring system tailored for various asset classes, based on macroeconomic cycle factors and asset macro fundamentals [8]. 2. Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The Black-Litterman (BL) model is highlighted as an improvement over traditional mean-variance models, effectively combining subjective views with quantitative allocation models [11][12]. - The BL model strategy has shown a five-year back-tested annualized return of 23.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.52, outperforming other comparative strategies [12]. 3. A-Share Sector Rotation Model Strategy - The financial style is expected to rebound, with the sector rotation strategy showing a significant annualized return of 21.1% [28][31]. - The financial style is recommended for investment, particularly in sectors like banking, insurance, and brokerage, which are expected to benefit from a decrease in macroeconomic risks [40]. 4. Conclusion and Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on A-shares and financial style for March, citing the dual benefits of technology themes and economic recovery [39][40]. - The report indicates that the current market conditions present a relatively high allocation value for A-shares, especially in light of recent improvements in manufacturing activity [40].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.08 汽车电子切换升级，新客户项目量产在即 华阳集团(002906) ——华阳集团更新报告 运输设备业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 47.16 | | | 上次预测: | 32.67 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 34.65 | 本报告导读： 公司汽车电子不断拓展新品、进入增量切换期，叠加新势力及国际车企客户平台项 目量产在即，公司业绩有望实现高速增长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5,638 | 7,137 | 9,889 | 13,283 | 16,892 | | (+/-)% | 25.6% | 26. ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, indicating that coal prices are expected to rebound above 770 CNY/ton due to recovering non-electric coal demand and seasonal peaks in June [1]. Core Insights - The coal price is anticipated to bottom out in March, with a current price of 693 CNY/ton as of March 5, 2024, and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers [2]. - Positive macroeconomic policies are expected to stimulate coal demand, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [1]. - Supply constraints are expected to limit growth, with new production capacity in key regions projected to increase by only 0.6% by 2025, while imports may decline due to new regulations [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The coal market is currently experiencing a balance between supply and demand, with expectations of a narrowing price fluctuation as the market stabilizes [2]. - The report highlights that the warm winter has led to weak demand, exacerbated by high levels of imports, but does not predict a severe oversupply situation [2]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Domestic supply growth is limited, and new regulations in Indonesia are expected to suppress imports, potentially leading to a year-on-year decline in import volumes [3]. - Recovery in demand is anticipated as fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost infrastructure and housing needs, particularly after the conclusion of the Two Sessions [3]. Section 3: Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels across the supply chain are low, with traders having sold off most of their stock and power plants reducing their inventories below levels seen in the previous year [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the digital agent product Manus AI, indicating a shift in enterprise AI investment from cost control to value creation [1]. Core Insights - Manus AI aims to disrupt traditional workflows by utilizing a multi-agent architecture that divides tasks into planning, execution, and verification, enhancing collaboration similar to human teams [1]. - The product features a comprehensive toolset, memory of user preferences, and cloud-based asynchronous execution, enabling personalized and deep service experiences across various applications [2]. - Manus adheres to a "Less Structure More Intelligence" philosophy, emphasizing quality data and flexible frameworks, which has shown superior performance in GAIA benchmark tests compared to OpenAI and previous state-of-the-art models [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Investment Outlook - Manus AI's introduction is expected to drive innovation in business models, particularly in professional services, by enabling digital agents to handle complex decision-making tasks [1]. Section 2: Product Features - Manus supports 40 application scenarios, including travel planning and stock analysis, while maintaining user preference consistency to enhance user engagement [2]. Section 3: Technological Philosophy - The success of Manus's minimalist technical philosophy validates the direction of general artificial intelligence development, indicating a significant advancement in handling unstructured and complex tasks [2].

| | 国泰君安证券 | | --- | --- | | | GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES | |  | 事件点评：《"五个统筹"下的七大亮点》2025-03-05 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 股策略快评：《夯实中国股市"转型牛"》2025-03-05 A | 3 | |  | A 股策略快评：《2025 年投资主战场在科技》2025-03-05 | 4 | |  | 海外策略研究：《韧性再现，港股自强》2025-03-05 | 5 | |  | 行业事件快评：教育产业《提出教育强国三年规划，教育普惠性提高》2025-03-06 | 6 | |  | 行业更新：家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基，国补拉动内销稳增》2025-03-06 | 6 | |  | 行业事件快评：建筑工程业《财政货币政策将提升建筑基本面，推荐低估值央国企》2025-03-06 | 7 | |  | 行业更新：医药《AI 全面赋能医疗，推动服务升级》2025-03-05 | 8 | |  | 行业事件快评：农业《政府工作报告强调乡村振兴，粮食安全重要性高》2025-03-0 ...

| [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,527 | 1,669 | 1,939 | 2,194 | 2,461 | | (+/-)% | 3.5% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | | 净利润（归母） | 379 | 451 | 545 | 640 | 733 | | (+/-)% | 26.1% | 19.1% | 20.8% | 17.5% | 14.5% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.19 | 1.42 | 1.72 | 2.02 | 2.31 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 20.6% | 23.0% | 24.8% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄） | 34.33 | 28.83 | 23.87 | 20.31 | 17.74 | 本报告导读： Q4 营收净利增速回升，随会员稳步增长、AI 产品迭代创新、深化一站式外贸服务 能力，看好 ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 大类资产配置 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.02 112 CalPERS 将向总组合管理模式转型 ——全球机构投资动态（20250302） 本报告导读： 此系列报告跟踪全球养老金、主权基金等长期资金机构的最新投资动态。 投资要点： [Table_Authors] 王鹤(分析师) 010-83939832 wanghe027834@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523020003 [Table_Report] 相关报告 港股波动率上升，美债收益率曲线下移 2025.02.24 薄冰现隙：美国服务业 PMI 超预期下行 2025.02.23 小市值风格表现出色，价值风格回撤较大 2025.02.23 本周估值因子表现较差，本月基本面因子超额回 撤较大 2025.02.23 恒生科技领跑，A 股成长风格夏普比上行 2025.02.22 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大 类 大类资产配置双周报 目录 资 产 配 置 双 周 报 [Table_Summary] CalPERS 有望从战略资产配置向总组合管理模式转型。新任 CIO 提 议董事会于 ...

薄冰现隙：美国服务业 PMI 超预期下行 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) ——大类资产配置周度点评（20250223） 本报告导读： 我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们下修对美股的战术性配置观点至标 配，下修对美元的战术性配置观点至标配。我们计划于 2025 年 2 月 24 日调整全球 主动资产配置组合权重。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 恒生科技领跑，A 股成长风格夏普比上行 2025.02.22 本周小市值因子显著占优，估值因子表现较差 2025.02.18 俄乌和谈启动缓解地缘政治风险担忧 2025.02.17 美国经济政策不确定性指数上升 2025.02.17 恒生科技领涨，A 股成长风格信息比上行 2025.02.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 大 类 资 产 配 置 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 主 动 资 产 配 置 周 报 大类资产配置 /[Table_Date] 2025.02.23 wangziyi027313@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523050004 [Table_Summary] 我们下修对美股的战术性配置观点至标配 ...