民生保障支出增速较快 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 2025 年 1-2 月财政收入端表现较弱，一般公共预算支出增长积极、进度较快，民生 保障为重点投入领域；政府性基金支出主要由中央财政支撑，地方支出增速受专项 债发行进度偏慢影响。根据财政部预算草案，2025 年财政赤字率和规模空前，将重 点支持民生和消费领域，年内或根据内外部环境变化适时推出增量政策。 投资要点： | | 010-83939779 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | | 汪浩(分析师) | | | 0755-23976659 | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | | 021-38038433 | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 锚点通胀向就 ...

负债搬家而非"负债荒"：三重特征和回表后的机会 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 债 券 研 究 专 题 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen028694@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.27 [Table_Summary] 当前债市负债持续偏贵，主要原因或非"负债荒"而是"负债搬家"， 居民存款等负债从银行体系向非银转移。我们认为现阶段债市回调 的主因是负债偏贵无疑，但更深层次原因或不是"负债荒"，而是"负 债搬家"，并非总量流动性收缩，只是流动性的分布变化，居民存款 等负债从银行体系向非银转移。背后的主要驱动因素是，低利率且 利率中枢不断下移的环境下，非银体系募集负债时提供的"体感收 ...

观研。 | 民生保障支出增速较快 | C | 黄汝南(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | પ્ર | 010-83939779 | | -- 2025年1-2月财政数据点评 | P | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | 本报告导读: | | | | 100 | | ------------ | 2025年1-2月财政收入端表现较弱,一般公共预算支出增长积极、进度较快,民生 保障为重点投入领域;政府性基金支出主要由中央财政支撑,地方支出增速受专项 债发行进度偏慢影响。根据财政部预算草案,2025年财政赤字率和规模空前,将重 点支持民生和消费领域,年内或根据内外部环境变化适时推出增量政策。 投资要点: | ને | 汪浩(分析师) | | --- | --- | | ટ | 0755-23976659 | | 0 | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | ર | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | y | 021-38038433 | | D | hanch ...

大单品引领品牌势能提升，多品线、品牌储备 巨子生物(2367) ——巨子生物 2024 年报点评 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] 海 外 公 司 | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 闫清徽(分析师) | 杨柳(分析师) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 68.00 | | 021-38676442 | 021-38031651 | 021-38038323 | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | 登记编号 S0880513120002 | S0880522120004 | S0880521120001 | | | 本报告导读： 票 公司 2024 年业绩高增符合预期，受益可复美胶原棒放量、焦点系列等新品爬坡以及 可丽金明星产品增长，公司化妆品业务多款新品储备、关注后续放量节奏。 投资要点： 风险提示：行业失 ...

2024Q4 暂承压，2025 年经营改善可期 晨光股份(603899) —晨光股份 2024 年年报点评 林纸产品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 35.79 | | | 上次预测: | 37.86 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 30.13 | 本报告导读： 受费用投入影响业绩暂承压，新零售业务推进及情绪消费趋势有望推动业绩改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 23,351 | 24,228 | 25,973 | 28,622 | 31,427 | | (+/-)% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | | 净利润（归母） | ...

国泰君安晨报 2025 年 03 月 27 日 国泰君安证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、策略，策略方奕团队认为， 经贸与地缘潜在风险扩大，德国重启财政与国防扩张周期，经济 增长中枢有望改善。全球资金再平衡之下，德股估值修复基本完成，后续关注盈利改善与散户资 金回流。 2、通信，通信王彦龙团队认为，GTC 大会引领算力，硅光子交换机开启 CPO 新纪元。OFC2025 即将来袭，多技术热点值得关注。重点推荐具备光学创新潜力的光通信板块个股，推荐标的新易 盛、天孚通信、太辰光。 3、比亚迪，新能源徐强团队认为， 公司 24 年业绩符合预期，销量领跑行业。后续看好公司智 能驾驶、超级 e 平台技术对产品竞争力的增强以及海外市场的开拓带来的销量增长。 4、华能国际，公用事业于鸿光团队认为，公司 4Q24 业绩符合预期，生物质板块及其他收益拖累 业绩，分红比例同比提升。 5、建材，建材鲍雁辛团队认为，消费建材龙头企业近年来第一次普遍性放缓营收增速预期，这 反而有利于行业借助价格竞争缓和费用预算削减而在年内迎来盈利的回升。 6、交运，交运岳鑫团队认为，《收费公路管理条例》2004 年颁布，已 ...

业绩亮眼，如日方升 小商品城(600415) ——小商品城 2024 年报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.27 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 19.50 | | | 上次预测: | 19.50 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 13.82 | 本报告导读： 风险提示：海外通胀及衰退风险，关税及贸易摩擦风险，新业务不 及预期等，竞争加剧等 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,300 | 15,737 | 19,710 | 23,864 | 27,479 | | (+/-)% | 48.3% | 39.3% | 25.2% | 21.1% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance slightly missed expectations, with asset disposals negatively impacting profits. The special steel business remains stable, and lithium carbonate cost control is excellent, with a gradual increase in production expected [3][11] - The target price has been adjusted to 41.80 yuan, down from the previous 55.75 yuan, based on a revised profit forecast due to ongoing weak lithium prices [2][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8,074 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,043 million yuan, down 69.4% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw revenue of 1,843 million yuan, a decline of 25.8%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 79.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been revised to 1,125 million yuan and 1,398 million yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at 1,631 million yuan [11] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 528 million yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, alongside a share buyback of 350 million yuan, representing 84.23% of the net profit for the period [11] Business Operations - The special steel segment reported production and sales of 305,000 tons and 303,000 tons, respectively, both down approximately 2% year-on-year. The company is actively pursuing ultra-low emission upgrades, with clean transportation and unorganized emissions passing audits [11] - In the lithium segment, the total sales volume for lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected at 26,000 tons, with a unit production cost of approximately 47,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the 53,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [11] - The company is expanding its mining capacity, with the Huashan porcelain stone mine expansion ongoing, expected to increase raw ore capacity to 9 million tons per year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Huaneng International, with a target price of 11.10 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][6][14]. Core Views - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue of 612 million CNY, down 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.8 million CNY, a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3][14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.24 billion CNY, representing 41.8% of net profit, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [14]. - The biomass segment and other income negatively impacted performance, with a significant reduction in impairment losses [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 245.55 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.5% from 2023, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 20.0% to 10.14 billion CNY [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 0.77 CNY and 0.81 CNY, respectively, with a target EPS of 0.85 CNY for 2027 [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 6.4% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2024, reaching 8.3% by 2025 [5][16]. Operational Highlights - The company's renewable energy segment saw a 23.7% year-on-year increase in electricity generation, with wind and solar power generation rising by 15.9% and 47.2%, respectively [14]. - The total profit from the renewable energy segment in 4Q24 was 1.87 billion CNY, up 29.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [14]. - The company added 9.3 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with 4.2 GW added in 4Q24 alone [14][19].