证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 固定收益点评 详解股债恒定 ETF——产品特征、海外经验与国内前景 ETF 具有显著的配置工具属性，且在过往几年里成为关注度最高、发展 最快的基金品种之一，国内 ETF 制度体系近年来持续完善。2022 年提 出"支持成熟指数型产品做大做强，加快推动 ETF 产品创新发展"。 2024 年，"新国九条"正式出台，首次在国家层面建立"ETF 快速审批 通道"，并将指数化投资提升至战略高度；同年还通过引导中长期资金 入市等配套改革，巩固 ETF 配置优势。2025 年，监管进一步优化注册流 程，并在销售费用新规中为 ETF 提供了赎回费差异化安排。 预期首批股债恒定类 ETF 将很快落地。2025 年《促进资本市场指数化投 资高质量发展行动方案》则首次明确提出"研究推出多资产 ETF"，为 股债恒定类产品提供了直接的政策依据。与此同时，中证指数公司与中 债金融估值中心自 2024 年起陆续发布多条股债恒定比例指数。 股债恒定类 ETF 是指以预设固定比例（如 20/80、30/70 等）配置股 票与债券资产的被动型交易所交易基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - In 2025, Yum China achieved revenue of $11.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, up 2% year-on-year. The core operating profit reached $1.292 billion, reflecting an 11% increase [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising 24% to $140 million, and core operating profit increasing 23% to $185 million [1] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 1,706 stores during the year, and the proportion of franchised stores increased to 31% [1] - For 2026, the company aims to exceed 20,000 stores, with a net increase of over 1,900 stores, and targets for KFC and Pizza Hut franchised stores to reach 40%-50% [1] Financial Performance - Same-store sales growth for the company, KFC, and Pizza Hut in Q4 2025 was 3%, 3%, and 1% respectively, with same-store transaction volume increasing by 4% [2] - The overall restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting improvements due to reduced costs in raw materials and rent [2] - The company expects revenues of $12.301 billion, $13.343 billion, and $14.382 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits projected at $1.003 billion, $1.091 billion, and $1.196 billion [5] Strategic Initiatives - New brands are expanding, with K Coffee reaching 2,200 locations and KPRO expanding to over 200 locations, while Pizza Hut's WOW stores are entering approximately 100 new towns [3] - Single-store investment has been optimized, with KFC's investment decreasing from approximately $1.5 million in 2024 to $1.3 million in 2025, and Pizza Hut's from $1.2 million to $1 million [3] - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns at $1.5 billion in 2026, with expectations of average annual returns of $900 million to $1 billion in 2027-2028 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [5]. Core Insights - H&H International Holdings is positioned as a leader in family nutrition, with a fundamental upward turning point anticipated. The company has undergone significant growth and expansion through acquisitions, but has faced challenges in recent years due to market pressures and debt burdens. However, recent adjustments and a favorable interest rate environment are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - H&H International Holdings, established in 1999, has evolved from a probiotic-focused company to a comprehensive family nutrition leader, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.1% in revenue and 89.9% in net profit from 2007 to 2013. The company has since diversified through acquisitions, including brands like Swisse and Solid Gold, but faced a downturn from 2021 onwards due to pressures in the milk powder segment and increased debt [1][16][18]. Business Structure - The company operates through three main segments: Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC), Infant Nutrition and Care (BNC), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC). ANC is the largest segment, projected to generate revenue of 67.0 billion RMB in 2024, a 9.0% increase year-on-year. BNC is expected to decline by 25.8% to 43.8 billion RMB, while PNC is anticipated to grow by 5.3% to 19.7 billion RMB [21][22]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report revenues of 130.5 billion RMB and a net loss of 0.5 billion RMB in 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated with projected net profits of 4.2 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 886.3% [9][11]. Market Trends - The health supplement market is experiencing robust growth, particularly in China, where e-commerce channels are gaining prominence. The company is leveraging this trend through its Swisse brand, which has a diversified product matrix targeting various consumer segments [2][21]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery trajectory for the company, driven by improved operational efficiency, a reduction in interest expenses due to a favorable interest rate cycle, and a rebound in sales across its segments. The anticipated net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 886.3%, 38.2%, and 22.3%, respectively [9][11][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The release of Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a significant advancement in video generation technology, supporting multi-modal inputs (image, video, audio, text) and enhancing controllability, which is expected to drive industrialization in the video generation sector [1][21] - The traditional "gacha" mechanism in the AI drama industry, which incurs additional costs due to the randomness of AI-generated content, is addressed by Seedance 2.0's improved controllability, potentially reducing production costs and timelines [2][22] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that adopting Seedance 2.0 could lower total generation costs by approximately 5% under conservative assumptions and by 37% under neutral assumptions, compared to industry peers [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Seedance 2.0 Release - Seedance 2.0 has been launched with enhanced capabilities, supporting four types of inputs and improving instruction understanding, physical realism, and element consistency [1][11] - The model's controllability allows for precise replication of complex camera movements and actions, enhancing the overall video generation process [17][19] 2. Implications for the Industry - The significant improvement in controllability is expected to lead to a leap in the industrialization of video generation, reducing the costs associated with the "gacha" mechanism prevalent in the AI-generated content industry [22] - The report highlights that Seedance 2.0 can effectively lower production costs and timelines in the AI drama sector by minimizing the need for multiple attempts to achieve satisfactory results [2][22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI drama such as Wanjing Technology, Kuaishou, Fubo Group, and New Guodu, as well as multi-modal companies like Danghong Technology and Hongruan Technology [3][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The release of Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a significant advancement in video generation technology, supporting multi-modal inputs (image, video, audio, text) and enhancing controllability, which is expected to drive industrialization in the video generation sector [1][21] - The traditional "gacha" mechanism in the AI drama industry, which incurs additional costs due to the randomness of AI-generated content, is addressed by Seedance 2.0's improved controllability, potentially reducing production costs and timelines [2][22] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that adopting Seedance 2.0 could lower total generation costs by approximately 5% under conservative assumptions and by 37% under neutral assumptions, compared to industry peers [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Seedance 2.0 Release - Seedance 2.0 has been launched with enhanced multi-modal capabilities, allowing for a richer creative process by integrating various input types [1][11] - The model's foundational capabilities have improved, with better accuracy in instruction understanding and physical realism, leading to more natural and fluid video generation [12][14] - The model's controllability has significantly increased, enabling precise replication of complex camera movements and actions, enhancing the overall coherence of generated videos [17][19] 2. Implications for the Industry - The enhanced controllability of Seedance 2.0 is expected to facilitate a leap in the industrialization of video generation, addressing the cost burdens associated with the "gacha" mechanism in AI-generated content [22] - The report highlights the potential for reduced production costs and timelines in the AI drama industry due to the improved efficiency of Seedance 2.0 [2][22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI drama, such as Wanxing Technology, Kuaishou, Fubo Group, and New Guodu, as well as multi-modal technology firms like Danghong Technology and Hongruan Technology [3][30]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]

1、回顾看，自 2012 年"强制结售汇"退出、汇率市场化推进后，外汇 由"藏汇于国"转为"藏汇于民"，待结汇资金逐步累积，其规模变化主要 与利差、汇率预期等因素有关。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 宏观点评 待结汇资金超万亿，对人民币影响几何？ 我们此前报告《人民币汇率"破 7"：原因、展望、影响》中指出，集中结 汇是本轮人民币汇率升值的重要原因之一。本篇报告进一步定量测算了待 结汇资金的规模、持汇成本，复盘了结汇与汇率表现之间的关系，并拆解 了企业结汇与流动性、信用扩张的关系，以期全面分析待结汇资金的影响。 核心结论：大体测算，2022 年以来累积的待结汇资金规模约 1.13 万亿美 元，持汇成本多集中在 7.0-7.2，加权平均为 7.1。因此，当前人民币升值 的背景下，叠加人民币资产吸引力上升，企业结汇可能延续。但从历史复 盘来看，汇率的实际表现并不仅仅取决于结汇规模这单一变量，而是由基 本面预期、美元走势等共同决定，不宜根据结汇规模直接映射汇率升值幅 度。往后看，维持我们此前判断："十五五"开局之年，国内经济总体保持 稳步增长，外部风险相对可 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 周期+成长板块均处于分析师景气扩张区间，与行业主线模型形成共振。 景气-趋势-拥挤模型当前配置仍延续顺周期主线，相较于上个月增配了机 械、电子、汽车等科技制造领域。 量化点评报告 周期板块景气预期开启扩张 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业经过全年 验证确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上半年主要是高股息、资源品 和出海，下半年主要是 AI。2025 年截至 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部分消费行业为主。由于超过半数行 业曾表现强势，行业主线判断难度较大，整体配置以均衡为主。今年截止 2 月 6 日，传媒、建材、石油石化、有色、基础化工、军工、通信这 7 个 行业出现 RS>90 的信号，集中在顺周期和 TMT 板块上，与景气扩张形成 共振，建议重点关注。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。2 月行业配置建议如下：机 械 18%、传媒 16%、电子 13%、非银 12%、计算机 12%、建材 7%、 汽车 7%，银行 7%、商 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading retail player in Xinjiang, benefiting from a dense store network, local market insights, and multi-format synergy, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers [1]. - The company is actively transforming its supermarket and department store formats, implementing a systematic upgrade based on the "Fat Donglai model," which has shown promising results in sales growth [2]. - The company is exploring new growth avenues through low-altitude economy initiatives, partnering with local aviation companies to enhance logistics and tourism [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Xinjiang Retail Leader with Multi-format Synergy - The company has been operating in Xinjiang for over 20 years, with a diverse portfolio including shopping centers, traditional department stores, and supermarkets. As of Q3 2025, it operates 6 department stores, 5 shopping centers, and 10 independent supermarkets, covering key commercial areas [13][1]. - Xinjiang's GDP is projected to grow at an average rate of 8.71% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing the national average, which positions the company to benefit from regional economic growth [17][1]. 2. Active Supermarket Transformation and Enhanced Department Store Experience - The company has initiated a comprehensive upgrade of its supermarket business, with the first batch of 8 upgraded stores completed by September 2025, resulting in a significant sales increase of 272% year-on-year for the first upgraded store [2]. - The department store transformation focuses on brand upgrades and enhancing customer experience, leading to a 24.3% increase in sales post-upgrade [2]. 3. Low-altitude Economy Initiatives for Second Growth Curve - The company has established a joint venture with a major aviation company to integrate retail and aviation logistics, focusing on low-altitude tourism and smart logistics [3]. - Strategic agreements have been signed to develop a comprehensive low-altitude ecological system, marking a significant step in expanding its business model [3]. 4. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 0.81 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan, with growth rates of 38.2%, 74.4%, and 33.8% [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading retail player in Xinjiang, leveraging its extensive store network, local market insights, and multi-format synergy to create significant scale and brand barriers. The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats, exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to unlock a second growth curve [1][3] - The company has a diversified retail presence, including shopping centers, traditional department stores, and supermarkets, with a total building area exceeding 1.06 million square meters in Xinjiang [1][13] - The economic growth in Xinjiang is robust, with an average GDP growth rate of 8.71% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing the national average. The retail sales in Xinjiang are projected to grow from CNY 358.5 billion in 2021 to CNY 392.6 billion in 2024, indicating a favorable environment for the company's growth [1][17] Summary by Sections 1. Xinjiang Retail Leader with Multi-format Synergy - The company has been deeply rooted in the Xinjiang market for over 20 years, becoming one of the largest retail chains in the region. It operates 6 department stores, 5 shopping centers, and 10 independent supermarkets [1][13] - The company has experienced revenue and profit improvements, with a significant recovery in 2023, achieving a revenue of CNY 2.494 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.76%, and a net profit of CNY 162 million, marking a turnaround from losses [25] 2. Active Supermarket Transformation and Enhanced Department Store Experience - The company has initiated a comprehensive upgrade of its supermarket business, adopting the "Fat Donglai model" to enhance product structure, service experience, and employee benefits. The first upgraded store achieved sales of CNY 17.32 million in its opening week, a 272% year-on-year increase [2] - The department store transformation focuses on brand upgrades and experience enhancement, leading to increased foot traffic and sales, with a 24.3% year-on-year increase in department store sales following supermarket upgrades [2] 3. Low-altitude Economy Layout for Second Growth Curve - The company has established a joint venture with a state-owned enterprise to develop low-altitude tourism, smart logistics, and ecological governance, marking a significant step in advancing its low-altitude economy initiatives [3] 4. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 2.422 billion, CNY 2.557 billion, and CNY 2.782 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 81 million, CNY 141 million, and CNY 188 million, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][5]