Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities negatively impacting ASP [2][8]. - The company has guided for first-quarter sales between 88,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, suggesting that recent price cuts have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123.851 billion - 2024: RMB 144.460 billion (YoY growth of 16.6%) - 2025E: RMB 157.981 billion (YoY growth of 9.4%) - 2026E: RMB 202.373 billion (YoY growth of 28.1%) - 2027E: RMB 224.975 billion (YoY growth of 11.2%) [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 11.704 billion - 2024: RMB 8.032 billion - 2025E: RMB 8.560 billion - 2026E: RMB 10.843 billion - 2027E: RMB 12.458 billion [3][16]. - The report highlights a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, with a forecast of RMB 5.95, declining to RMB 4.03 in 2024, and a slight recovery to RMB 4.29 in 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report notes that the company faces significant challenges in terms of sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness. The competition is expected to intensify in 2025 with the introduction of more range-extended competitors, including new models from rival companies [8]. - The sales forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 7.5% to 558,000 vehicles, reflecting concerns over the sales performance of the range-extended series and new electric models [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the largest share to new business value at 35%, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have increased by 24% and 22% respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating sustained growth potential in this market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to increase by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a proposed new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% for 2023 and 41.3% for 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 91.2% in 2024 [5][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics over the forecast period [5][7]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The operational profit (OPAT) is forecasted to be USD 6,605 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [7][8]. - The new business value is projected to reach USD 5,084 million in 2025E, with a growth rate of 7.9% [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.3% in 2025E, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, down from $7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36.2%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [5][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 10,015 million, with MOMO expected to contribute RMB 9,328 million and Tantan RMB 683 million. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,239 million [5][17]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in revenue for Tantan, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% expected in Q1 2025 [6][17]. Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing pressure on its main platform and Tantan due to reduced user engagement and a soft social consumption sentiment, leading to a decrease in paid users by 1.2 million [6][16]. - New application revenues have increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas social product Soulchill [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU US) with a target price raised to $135.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.6% from the current closing price of $107.52 [1]. Core Insights - Futu's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with a Non-GAAP net profit of HKD 19.52 billion, representing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105% and 40%, respectively, marking a record high for a single quarter [5]. - The company reported a strong client growth guidance for 2025, with Q4 adding 215,000 new paying users, a 39.1% increase quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the previous guidance of 550,000 for the entire year [5]. - Futu's trading volume reached a historical high of HKD 2.89 trillion in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 202% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 52% [5]. - The wealth management business showed steady improvement, with assets under management increasing to HKD 110.9 billion, a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 15% of client assets [5]. - The report anticipates a 21% year-on-year growth in Non-GAAP net profit for 2025, reflecting the company's robust growth trajectory [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Futu Holdings are as follows: HKD 10,008 million in 2023, HKD 13,590 million in 2024, and HKD 16,812 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48.7% for 2023 and 27.0% for 2024 [4][7]. - The net profit is expected to grow from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 6,556 million in 2025E, with corresponding growth rates of 46% and 21% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from HKD 30.59 in 2023 to HKD 46.88 in 2025E, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.3 in 2023 to 17.8 in 2025E, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation Summary - The valuation for the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $72.00, indicating a potential upside of 93.6% from the current price of $37.19 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve positive net profit in Q4 2024, reaching $26 million, aligning with previous expectations after accounting for a $111 million foreign exchange gain. Management indicates that the cash on hand of $1.1 billion is sufficient to support operations until Q2 2026, when the company anticipates reaching operational breakeven [2][6]. - The sales of Carvykti are projected to continue growing, with Q4 2024 sales increasing by 17% and 15% in the U.S. and internationally, respectively. The product has already treated over 5,000 patients, and the number of hospitals offering Carvykti treatment has increased to 104 [6][11]. - The report suggests that the current stock price does not fully reflect the long-term market potential of Carvykti, and the target price has been slightly adjusted downwards to $72 [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at $1.061 billion, with a slight increase from the previous forecast of $1.051 billion, representing a 0.9% change. For 2026, revenue is expected to rise to $1.48 billion, up 7.1% from the prior estimate of $1.382 billion [5][11]. - The gross profit for 2025 is forecasted at $676 million, with a gross margin of 63.8%. By 2026, gross profit is expected to increase to $951 million, maintaining a gross margin of 64.2% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of $55 million, improving to a profit of $131 million in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.29%, with a 52-week high of $68.01 and a low of $31.53 [5][10]. - The report highlights the importance of new production capacity and market penetration strategies, particularly in the 2L+ multiple myeloma market, which is expected to drive sales growth significantly [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Baoshan International (3813 HK) [2][6][12] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2025, with revenue projected to be flat year-on-year. The average selling price is anticipated to grow slightly, while order volume is expected to remain stable [6][9] - The company has improved its profit margins through discount control and enhanced operational capabilities, despite a decline in revenue due to reduced foot traffic in physical stores [6][9] - The target price for the company has been adjusted down to HKD 0.90 from HKD 1.01, reflecting an 8x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decrease by 8.0% in 2024 to RMB 18,454 million, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 to RMB 18,831 million, representing a 2.0% year-on-year growth [5][9] - Net profit is expected to grow by 11.1% in 2025, reaching RMB 546 million, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.11 [5][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 34.5% in 2025, up from 34.2% in 2024, driven by effective inventory management and discount control [6][10] Stock Performance - The stock closed at HKD 0.59, with a potential upside of 53.3% to the target price of HKD 0.90 [1][7] - The stock has shown an 18.0% increase year-to-date [4] Market Position - The company is focusing on new brand development and enhancing its multi-channel strategy to adapt to market changes and capture new growth opportunities [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, New Special Energy (1799 HK), with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 [2][7]. - The report highlights that the controlling shareholder, TBEA, is providing substantial financial support to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which may improve the company's financial outlook in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024 with a loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, before returning to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1,534 million in 2026 [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is forecasted to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below the cash cost of production [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, estimating the value of the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion based on a 5.5x P/E ratio for 2025, while the polysilicon segment is valued at RMB 14 billion based on a capacity valuation of RMB 0.5 billion per ton [9][7]. - The total valuation amounts to RMB 102 billion, leading to a revised target price of HKD 7.66, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 6.6x for 2026 [9][7].

交银国际研究 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.45 | 港元 134.69↑ | +38.2% | | | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) | | | | | | 产品大年，受惠智驾普及，维持买入 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 9868 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 97.45 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.05 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 150,811.67 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 42.08 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 108.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 51.63 | | 资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 124.6% from the current price of HKD 12.80 [1][6]. Core Insights - The core business segments are expected to recover in the second half of 2024, with new business lines anticipated to reach a growth inflection point. The adjusted revenue and net profit for 2024 are in line with expectations, with significant growth expected in the life sciences and CDMO businesses in 2025 [2][6]. - The company has shown a strong recovery momentum in its core business segments, particularly in the life sciences sector, which reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 10%. The protein business experienced nearly 50% growth, enhancing the delivery capacity of gene services [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at USD 912 million, reflecting a 28.6% increase from previous forecasts. The gross profit is expected to reach USD 541 million, a 58.1% increase, with a gross margin of 59.3% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at USD 239 million for 2025, with a net profit margin of 26.2%, significantly up from 9.0% in the previous year [5][13]. - The company anticipates a strong performance in 2025, with guidance indicating a 10-15% revenue growth in the life sciences business and a 15-20% growth in the CDMO segment [6][7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.08%, with a 52-week high of HKD 17.28 and a low of HKD 8.23 [4][6]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation model estimates the total valuation at approximately USD 8.795 billion, with the life sciences services segment contributing significantly to the overall valuation [7][6].