英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 春节长假临近，持币还是持股？ 2026 年 2 月 13 日 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四大盘波澜不惊。不过，结构上有亮点，比如，创业板指在科技成长股的 带动下涨超 1%。从盘面看，电网设备、液冷、半导体等方向集体走强，延续了科 技成长主线的人气，与之相对，传媒影视及大消费板块调整，显示出市场仍处于 存量博弈阶段。 春节长假临近，持股还是持币？我们认为，整体看好春节前后行情，但具体 策略需因人而异。对于中长期配置型资金而言，市场慢牛格局未变，适度持股过 节具备优势；对于短线交易型资金，则可根据自身风险偏好灵活调整仓位，避免 因节日期间不确定性而被动承受波动。 节后资金回流预期增强，市场流动性有望得到进一步改善。除了流动性改善 的预期，重要会议的政策预期也成为节后行情的重要看点。每年春节过后，相关 重要会议将陆续召开，政策导向、发展规划等核心信息将逐步明确，有望为市场 带来新的政策红利，激发相关板块的投资机会。 结合当前市场态势，节后随着资金回流、政策预期升温，市场活跃度有望进 一步提升，行情值得期待。但需要清醒认识到，当前市场仍存在不确定性，不 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 12 日 A 股市场缩量蓄势，节后行情仍值得期待 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三早盘沪深三大指数涨跌不一，震荡整理格局凸显。盘面上看，周期股成 为市场最大亮点，化工、有色金属、玻纤等相关板块走强。午后市场走势分化加 大，创业板指在低位徘徊整理，上证指数维持红盘横盘运行，深成指则小幅回落， 全天市场整体波动幅度有限，显示节前资金的谨慎心态。 周四将是节前最后的"提现交易时刻"，按照交易规则，如果周四卖出股票， 资金需到节前最后一个交易日（即周五）才能取现。从历史经验看，部分投资者 为规避假期不确定性、兑现节日资金需求，因此也意味着周四市场理论上可能面 临一定的短期抛压。不过，结合节前市场缩量态势来看，抛压力度大概率相对有 限，节前 A 股市场大概率将平稳度过。 节后资金回流预期增强，市场流动性有望得到进一步改善。除了流动性改善 的预期，重要会议的政策预期也成为节后行情的重要看点。每年春节过后，相关 重要会议 ...

Core Views - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with a positive outlook for the post-holiday market driven by liquidity improvement and policy expectations [2][3][10] - Key sectors such as cultural media, gaming, and AI applications are performing strongly, while sectors like precious metals and new energy are experiencing adjustments [4][9] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed results, with cultural media and AI application sectors performing well, while precious metals and new energy sectors faced declines [4][5] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by orderly rotation of hotspots, indicating a positive trend towards stabilization [3][9] Sector Analysis - The cultural media sector has shown significant growth, with a 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, and is expected to continue to have structural investment value in 2026 due to advancements in AI technology and economic recovery [6][7] - The AI theme remains active, with a focus on applications and hardware, indicating a shift from investment in computing power to practical applications in 2026 [7][8] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to see increased activity post-holiday, with a focus on liquidity return and policy developments, which could provide new investment opportunities [3][10] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on low-cost opportunities in small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [3][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2026, the installed capacity of solar power generation in China is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time, with the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching half of the total installed capacity by the end of the year [10] - The report indicates that the energy sector is transitioning from a coal-dominated system to one led by renewable energy, reshaping the power source structure and market rules [11] - The report notes significant growth in the energy storage sector, with a cumulative installed capacity of 213 GW by the end of 2025, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [42] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The China Electricity Council predicts that in 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will exceed that of coal power, with wind and solar combined accounting for 80.2% of new installed capacity in 2025 [10] - Major energy projects are being advanced, including the successful installation of a nuclear power unit and the completion of significant transmission lines [11] Market Performance - During the period from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, while the power equipment index rose by 2.20%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 3.53 percentage points [13] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, photovoltaic battery components, photovoltaic processing equipment, and cable components saw the highest increases, with respective rises of 8.10%, 6.01%, and 4.20% [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption in society was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total of 1,036.82 billion kWh consumed throughout the year, marking a 5.00% increase [21] - The newly added power generation capacity in 2025 was 54,617.1558 MW, a year-on-year increase of 26.07% [23] New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - As of February 4, 2026, the average price of polysilicon was 54 CNY/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [39] Energy Storage - By the end of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% year-on-year [42] Lithium Batteries - As of February 6, 2026, the price of lithium carbonate was 134,000 CNY/ton, down by 1,400 CNY/ton from the previous week [46] Charging Stations - By the end of December 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million, a year-on-year increase of 56.75% [51]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 沪指重返 4100 点，春节结构性行情开启 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 总量研究 【A 股大势研判】 春节前最后一周的首个交易日，A 股在海外市场大涨的情绪传导下高开高走， 迎来强势反弹。全天，指数跳空高开，盘中震荡后再度上行，最终大盘重返 4100 点。盘面上，科技股全线反弹，光伏概念走强，算力硬件、AI 应用等反复活跃， 赚钱效应显著回升，为春节行情注入较强动能。 当前市场热点虽多，但持续性存疑，更像是在为节后的风格主线进行预演和 蓄力。另外，虽然周一沪深三大指数大涨，但成交额未见明显放大，春节行情可 能并非一帆风顺，波折反复的可能性依然较大。 整体来看，A 股春节行情已进入实质性演绎阶段，内部经济韧性与产业利好 构成核心支撑，即便短期或有震荡，但 A 股长牛慢牛的格局未改。对于投资者而 言，聚焦结构性机会，节前可利用市场波动主动低吸优质标的，节后可择机布局 小盘成长与具备明确产业催化的题 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with a focus on individual stock plays and structural rotations, suggesting that opportunities will arise from quick stock trading and sector rotations rather than a clear trend [1][13][14] - The market is expected to exhibit a "seek stability before the festival, rebound after" rhythm, with defensive sectors like consumption and dividend stocks likely to attract attention before the holiday, while post-holiday focus may shift to small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [1][13][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close in the green during the morning session, only to fall back in the afternoon, continuing the recent adjustment trend [4][5] - The chemical, battery, and mining sectors showed strength, while consumer and AI-related stocks experienced a collective pullback, indicating a structural rotation in the market [1][4][13] Sector Performance - The report highlights that cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals have been active, driven by ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving economic supply-demand dynamics [7][8] - The new energy sector, particularly battery and photovoltaic stocks, has shown resilience, supported by global trends towards carbon neutrality and domestic policy reforms aimed at reducing competition in these fields [8][9] - Consumer stocks have also been active, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption creating structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors catering to demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on consumption and dividend stocks before the festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities post-festival [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in the current volatile market, suggesting that investors should be ready to adapt to changing market rhythms [2][14]

2026 年 2 月 6 日 节前市场情绪谨慎，关注红利及低估值股机会，节后关注优质成长标的 分析师：惠祥凤 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 【A 股大势研判】 周四沪深三大指数缩量调整。盘面上看，贵金属板块领跌，科技板块则跟随 外围走势继续调整。与此形成对比的是，以酿酒、餐饮旅游为代表的大消费板块 表现坚挺，银行股全线飘红，与券商等权重共同构成了市场的维稳力量。市场分 化，表明市场的调整并非系统性风险释放，而是一场结构再平衡。 近期资金涌入白酒、银行等高确定性、防御性板块寻求庇护，这些板块的上 涨在一定程度上对冲了市场的下行压力，维系了指数的稳定。然而，这种维稳力 量本质上是存量资金避险驱动的结果，而非进攻性行情的前奏。市场整体成交呈 现降温态势，资金观望情绪浓厚，并未形成具有号召力的新主线。题材股受压， 市场赚钱效应仅局限于少数防御板块，多数个股下跌，显示市场情绪谨慎。 短期来看，春节临近将进一步加大资金的避险情绪，市场或难以走出趋势性 行情，机会将以快速的个股博弈和结构性轮动为主。春节前后的市场风格大概率 将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"的节奏特征。节前，在避险情绪与稳健配置需求 主导下 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 春节前后 A 股或将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"风格特征 分析师：惠祥凤 当前风格向红利板块倾斜有其内在逻辑：一方面，市场经历前期整体降温后， 风险偏好下降，资金出于避险需求，自然流向估值低位、盈利稳定且股息率高的 板块，推动其修复补涨；另一方面，春节长假临近，内外围不确定性使得追求稳 健成为短期共识，红利板块的防御属性凸显吸引力。 不过，今年春节时间较晚，节后一周将迎来两会召开，历史经验表明，两会 前后市场风险偏好通常提升，更有利于小盘股表现；另外，节后回流资金，也将 为小盘风格提供增量支撑。 因此，春节前后的市场风格大概率将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"的节奏特 征。节前，在避险情绪与稳健配置需求主导下，红利及低估值大盘板块的修复行 情有望延续。节后，随着两会政策窗口开启、市场风险偏好回升以及资金流向变 化，市场焦点可能重新转向小盘成长与具备明确产业催化的题材方向。 对于投资者而言，应对当前震荡轮动市的关键在于踏准节奏。操作上可兼顾 稳健与弹性：节前可关注红利板块的配置价值，把握其估值修复机会；同时为节 后布局做好准备，积极关注有 ...

金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 市场大跌后迎来强劲反弹，量能未能同步放大，后续修复过程或有震荡 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一 A 股市场大跌，周二市场并未延续跌势，尽管早盘一度下探，午后却迎 来强势反弹，三大指数全线探底回升，上演 V 型反转。盘面上，船舶制造、航天 航空等军工股走强，光伏、AI 应用、化工等多个方向同步活跃，有色金属板块也 迎来探底回升。不过，成交量未能同步放大，可能后续市场修复过程还有震荡。 我们认为，即便短期有震荡，也不改中期向好格局。 展望 2026 年：市场中枢抬升（大概率是"牛市第三阶段"），波动可能加大， 风格趋向均衡，紧跟《"十五五"规划建议》及后续增量政策导向。操作上，战略 上看，对于 2024 年以来已经重仓的投资者，慢牛持仓待涨或冲高后维持净卖出 是高概率获胜的策略。对于估值过高、纯粹概念炒作的股票，或涨幅巨大、趋势 开始走弱的龙头，建议逢高适度兑现收益。对于估值合理、业绩确定性强的优质 标的（有实际业绩或未来业绩支撑的标的），可趁回调机会逢低布局。新入场者 系好止损安全带，逢低布局莫追高，重点挖掘结构性机会。 执业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]