[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | 有色金属 | 有色金属周报：降息预期降温， | | 优于大市（维持） | 氧化铝价格继续维持强势 | 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报：俄乌冲突加剧， 金银价格走高，氧化铝价格继续维持 强势》，2024.11.24 2.《铝：退税政策变动，内外价差要 缩到多少？》，2024.11.18 3.《有色金属周报：取消铜、铝等产 品出口退税，氧化铝价格维持强势》， 2024.11.17 4 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 11 月 30 日 | | | | | 通信 | 卫星互联网加速落地，有望形成 | | 优于大市（维持） | 商业闭环 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《科技自主与产业链完善，国内硬 科技崛起》，2024.11.29 2.《国产算力持续发展，液冷为伴生 需求》，2024.11.23 3.《关税和小院高墙，无法压制中国 通信向纵深升级》，2024.11.22 4.《垣信"千帆"出海，全球商业闭 环初现》，2024.11.21 5.《博弈加剧，国产核心科技加速》， 2024.11.16 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | 2024 年 12 月 1 | | | | | | | | 煤炭周报 煤炭 | 日耗延续回升，煤价 | | 优于大市（维持） | 仍有支撑 | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中煤能源（601898.SH）：煤炭 主 业 以 量 补 价 ，Q3 业 绩 符 合 预 期》，2024.10.24 2.《煤炭周报：冬储补库在即，煤 价反弹可期》，2024.10.20 3.《煤炭行业月报：供给小幅增 加，需求企稳回升》，2024.10.20 4.《煤炭行业点评：回购增持再贷 款 落 地 ， 板 块 配 置 价 值 凸 显 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Kingsoft Office is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic institutional authorization business and the promotion of AI technology, which is expected to enhance user dependency and willingness to pay for office software [4][5][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Kingsoft Office's stock has shown a relative performance of -57% compared to the CSI 300 index as of November 2023 [3] - The absolute growth rates for the company are projected at 13.98% for 1 month, 32.77% for 2 months, and 61.76% for 3 months [3] Business Development - In Q3 2024, the domestic institutional authorization business generated revenue of 143 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 8.97%, reversing a decline of 10.14% in the first half of 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on the government and industry sectors, anticipating significant growth in institutional authorization business as the 2025 critical period for domestic innovation approaches [4] AI Integration - The company’s personal office service subscription revenue reached 762 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.24% [5] - The introduction of WPS AI 2.0, which includes various AI tools, has improved user engagement and conversion rates [5] International Expansion - Kingsoft Office is expanding its B2B business into overseas markets, leveraging partnerships with Amazon Web Services to enhance its AI capabilities [6] - The company has accumulated 200 million monthly active users overseas, indicating a solid foundation for growth [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.245 billion yuan, 6.585 billion yuan, and 8.315 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.475 billion yuan, 1.841 billion yuan, and 2.401 billion yuan [7] - The report anticipates an EPS of 3.19 yuan, 3.98 yuan, and 5.19 yuan for the same period [7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion[4] - The production index and new orders index are at 52.4% and 50.8%, respectively, with increases of 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points[4] - The new export orders index is at 48.1%, up 0.8 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[4] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw material price index is at 49.8%, down 3.6 percentage points, while the finished goods price index is at 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points[5] - The raw material inventory index is at 48.2%, unchanged from the previous month, and the finished goods inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.5 percentage points[5] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Expectations - Industrial profits from January to October have decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating weak profitability[7] - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting positive future expectations[12] - The debt reduction measures are improving cash flow for small and medium enterprises, contributing to their improved sentiment[9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 11 月 27 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|------------------------| | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | | | | | | 利润率触底回升 | | | | | | | | | —— | 月工业企业利润数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 核心观点：规上工业企业利润仍处负增区间，但随着存量政策及一揽子增量政策协 同发力、持续显效，10 月单月工业企业利润增速触底回升、降幅明显收窄。10 月 企业利润三因素格局的变化主要体现在利润率的触底反弹上，具体而言，"价"依 旧保持低位徘徊，但 PPI 环比降幅明显收窄；"量"环比出现走弱，但生产端韧性 仍在；"利润率"单月出现明显的触底反弹，带动工企利润降幅明显收 ...

0 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 生物医药 行业投资评级|优大于市（维持） 2024年11月27日 百年美国医改史： 费用结构、经验和教训 证券分析师 姓名：周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：安柯 资格编号：S0120524060006 邮箱：anke＠tebon.com.cn 内容摘要 与市场主流认知不同的是： 1. 市场认为美国医疗保障体系是以商保为主，但目前美国保险体系是以公共医保为主。1）支出角度来看，以2022年为例，商业保 险体系支出占比仅为28.9%，公共保险支出占比为52.7%；2）其次商业保险产品中部分是承接了政府医保项目内容，如medicare中的 Part-C，因此商业保险的实际支出占比更低，美国保险体系是以公共医保占比为主； 2.美国公共医保体系也在逐步走向控费，但现阶段控费效果较为有限。1）从参与主体来看，商业保险公司一方面通过提高保费和自 付额分散风险，同时承接政保项目拉动收入增长；而公共保险的覆盖人群和人均支出均在提升，2023年公共保险支出（含Medicare和 Mediaid）占联邦财政支出为26.6 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the computer sector is **Outperform (Maintained)** [1] Core Viewpoints - **AI Agent Development**: AI Agents, which can perceive environments, make decisions, and execute actions, are becoming more viable due to advancements in AI models and reduced inference costs [2] - **Technological Breakthroughs**: OpenAI's o1 model has revolutionized the scaling law by enabling performance improvements through increased inference resources, marking a new era in AI model development [2][19] - **Cost Reduction in Computing Power**: The cost of AI computing power has decreased significantly, with H100 rental prices dropping from $8/hour to under $2/hour, facilitating the industrial promotion of AI Agents [2][24] Industry Progress - **Global Tech Companies' Shift**: Major tech companies like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are shifting focus from model development to AI Agent tools, with significant progress in vertical applications such as marketing, data analysis, CRM, and education [3][30][31] - **Domestic Advancements**: Chinese companies like Zhipu, Baidu, Tencent, and DingTalk are also making strides in AI Agent development, with applications ranging from web browsing to legal services [34][35][36] Commercial Success - **User Engagement**: AI Agents are enhancing user engagement and creating significant enterprise value, with global AI applications potentially generating $3.8 trillion in value by 2030 [4][76] - **Market Performance**: AI applications in advertising, data analysis, and CRM have shown strong commercial performance, with companies like AppLovin, Palantir, and Salesforce experiencing significant stock price increases [4][80] Investment Recommendations - **Focus Areas**: The report recommends focusing on companies involved in toB and toC AI Agents, as well as those in AI multimodal applications, such as Kingsoft Office, Wanxing Technology, and iFlytek [85] Technological Advancements - **Inference Capabilities**: AI Agent performance heavily relies on reasoning capabilities, with techniques like Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting enhancing complex task performance [14][15] - **Cost Efficiency**: The reduction in computing power costs and the improvement in domestic chip supply are expected to further lower the cost of AI Agent deployment, making it more accessible for industrial applications [23][24] Market Trends - **Software Development Democratization**: AI is reducing the time required for coding by 55%, and by 2025, 70% of applications are expected to be built using low-code or no-code platforms, leading to a surge in AI Agent applications across various industries [47][48] - **Vertical Applications**: AI Agents are becoming increasingly specialized, with applications in retail, education, real estate, and customer support, among others, showing significant potential for growth [38][39][42][45]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hotgen Biotech (688068 SH) with an "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - Hotgen Biotech's IVD business is steadily growing, with its chemiluminescence business entering a rapid expansion phase The company's core business has maintained stable growth, with a CAGR of 18% for conventional business revenue from 2019 to 2023 [2] - The company has built eight technology platforms, including bio-active raw material R&D, sugar capture, magnetic particle chemiluminescence, up-conversion luminescence, colloidal gold immunochromatography, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, molecular diagnostics, and instrument R&D, continuously deepening its IVDT business [2] - The chemiluminescence platform has entered a rapid expansion phase, with revenue increasing by 45% in 2023 The company's employee stock ownership plan for 2024-2026 sets a revenue CAGR growth target of 20% or higher [2] Business Development - Hotgen Biotech has a strong R&D focus, with a 24 3% R&D expense ratio in 2023 Many core technical personnel come from military research institutes [3] - The company has established multi-omics diagnostic technology platforms, including protein marker sugar chain exosomes and DNA methylation, and has entered the drug R&D field through three subsidiaries: Yaojing Gene, Shunjing Pharma, and Yujing Pharma [3] - Shunjing Pharma's FIC product, SGC001, has entered dual reporting in China and the US SGC001 is a monoclonal antibody targeting S100A8/A9, indicated for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and is the first FIC drug globally [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 545/655/784 million yuan in 2024-2026, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 3/55/94 million yuan The corresponding PE valuations for 2024-2026 are 1444/74/43 times [4] - The company's non-COVID business is expected to grow steadily, and the innovation drug pipeline of its subsidiaries is progressing, supporting the "Overweight" rating [4] Industry and Market Analysis - Hotgen Biotech's products cover a wide range of clinical fields, including inflammation, infection, cardiovascular diseases, bone metabolism, thyroid function, diabetes, hypertension, hepatitis, liver cancer, tumors, kidney injury, and gastric function, widely used in hospitals, community health service stations, and third-party testing centers [50] - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio in the clinical reagent sector, with 13 approved cytokine detection reagents, maintaining a leading position in the cytokine detection field [54] - The company's public safety detection reagents cover biosecurity, foodborne pathogens, fungal toxins, and infectious diseases, widely used in disease control centers, public security, firefighting, military, and food safety monitoring [55] Innovation and R&D - Hotgen Biotech has established multiple advanced technology platforms, including phage display antibody preparation, sugar capture, magnetic particle chemiluminescence, and up-conversion luminescence, through years of development and collaboration with research institutions [69] - The company's GlyExo-Capture® technology, used for the extraction of glycosylated extracellular vesicles, has shown significant potential in early cancer diagnosis and screening, particularly in liver cancer [71] - The company continues to promote the "Chinese Liver Health Project," improving liver disease diagnosis and treatment levels through innovative products like the C-GALAD II liver cancer risk prediction model [77] Drug Development - Shunjing Pharma, a subsidiary of Hotgen Biotech, focuses on innovative drug R&D, with SGC001, a first-in-class drug for AMI, entering clinical trials in both China and the US [81] - SGC001 has shown promising preclinical data, significantly reducing mortality, myocardial infarction area, and improving heart function in animal models [90] - The drug has received IND approval from the US FDA and clinical trial approval from China's NMPA, with Phase II trials expected to begin in 2025 [92]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | 电气设备 | | | | 月新能源汽车销量保持快速增长 | | 优于大市（维持） | | 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 赵皓 资格编号：S0120524030004 邮箱：zhaohao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 2 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 10 月新能源汽车月度产销创历史新高。中汽协数据显示， 10 月新能源汽车销量 继续保持快速增长。中汽协数据显示，10 月新能源汽车产销分别完成 146.3 万辆 和 143 万辆，同比分别增长 48%和 49.6%；新能源汽车国内销量 130.2 万辆，环 比增长 10.7% ...