[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 05 日 证券研究报告•金融工程动态报告 行业配置报告（2025 年 2 月） 最新配置观点：银行 农林牧渔 基础化工 家电 轻工制造 建材 上月组合收益率表现：2025年 1月，组合月度收益率-2.58%，相较于行业等 权指数超额收益率 0.40%。1月行业配置为：煤炭、银行、电力及公用事业、 汽车、纺织服装、交通运输。其中银行、汽车、纺织服装取得超额收益。 分析师预期边际变化行业轮动模型 最新配置观点：非银行金融 银行 汽车 消费者服务 家电 有色金属 上月组合收益率表现：2025年 1月，组合月度收益率-0.41%，相较于行业等 权指数超额收益率 2.57%。1月行业配置为：非银行金融、银行、汽车、家电、 农林牧渔、有色金属。其中银行、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、有色金属取得超额 收益。 ETF 组合构建 最新 ETF 行业组合配置：银行 家电 汽车 农林牧渔 有色金属 行业配置策略与 ETF 组合构建 摘要 [Table_Summary] 相似预期差行业轮动模型 风险提示 本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据，若未来市场环境发生变化，因子的实际 表现 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 04 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 假期重要动态信息回顾点评 西南观点 [Table_Summary] 1. 宏观：假期全球重大事件与国内数据解析 叶凡 S1250520060001 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 国内假日数据：春运前 20 日出行保持稳健增长，观影热度超市场预期。春运前 20 日人员流动 量同比增长 7.2%，相较 2024 年同期（同口径增长 14%）增速有所下滑，但仍保持了稳健增长 态势。从出行方式来看，水路客运量较去年同期增长最快，其次是公路和民航，大部分居民选择 自驾返乡或出游。出游方面，国内长线游是 2025年春节旅游消费的热门选择，出游人次占比接 近 40％，出境短线游同样保持了较高的热度，出游人次占比接近 30％。80后仍是春节旅游消费 的"主心骨"，出游人次占比达 48％，展现了中青年用户更为强劲的文旅消费需求。观影方面， 据灯塔专业版，截至 2月 2日 22 时 48分，2025 年春节档（1月 28日-2月 4日）总票房（含 预售）突破 74亿元，2024年春节档则带来了超过 80亿元的票房，今年春节档 ...

医疗器械-生命信息与支持设备专题 论高国产化率赛道增长点在何方？ 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年2月 首席分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：陈辰 执业证号：S1250524120002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：chch@swsc.com.cn 核心观点 1 前言：在中国人口老龄化日益加深的背景下，与急重症患者救治相关的生命支持医疗设备的需求日益增长。亦得益于生物医学工程和 信息技术的突破，生命监测与支持技术正逐步实现集成化、精准化、和智能化。从简单的心电监护到较为复杂的体外生命支持系统， 这些医疗设备在临床应用中扮演着越来越重要的角色，成为现代医学不可或缺的一部分。随着术式的不断革新和产品线的扩围发展， 我们不禁要问"高国产化率的生命支持设备未来增长点在何方？"本篇报告将重点围绕生命支持医疗设备行业三大核心问题来做解读 ： 1）市场需求层面，各子行业的市场规模及年复合增长几何？2）格局层面，各子行业目前的竞争格局以及行业核心技术发展趋势 ？3）潜在增长层面，论高国产化率赛道增长点在何方？ 需求 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 27 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 季节性叠加需求前置，景气度表现偏弱 ——2025 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 点评 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 50468 [Table_Summary] 制造业 PMI：景气度季节性走低，但企业预期较为乐观。由于春节假期临近， 企业开工季节性放缓，加之部分消费品备货需求提前释放，2025 年 1 月制造 业 PMI 较 2024年 12月回落 1个百分点至 49.1%，低于市场预期。从季节性 表现来看，2015-2024年 1月制造业 PMI 平均约为 50.2%，2025年 1月制造 业 PMI较历史同期均值偏低。从需求端看，内外需均边际走低，新订单指数下 滑 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [210]. Core Insights - The report highlights three major trends in the AI sector: domestic companies focusing on AI computing power and ecosystem competition, overseas companies shifting towards model optimization on the inference side, and the increasing release of AI Agents driving application deployment [30][44][63]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies and macroeconomic conditions on the recovery of related sectors, particularly in the context of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative, which aims to enhance domestic technology capabilities [79][126]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Market Review - The computer industry index increased by 4.4% in 2024, underperforming the broader market index by approximately 10.3% [14]. - The top three gainers in the sector were 汇金科技 (+367.5%), 赢时胜 (+258.0%), and 荣科科技 (+234.2%) [14]. 2. Domestic and International Competition - Domestic major players like 字节, 阿里, and 腾讯 are significantly investing in AI computing power, while overseas firms are optimizing models for inference tasks [30][31]. - The report notes that the demand for ASIC chips is expected to rise due to their cost-effectiveness in inference tasks compared to traditional GPUs [58]. 3. Continuous Catalysts in the Sector - The report indicates that the Xinchuang initiative is gaining momentum, with increased efficiency in bidding processes and a clearer direction for technology adoption [79]. - The financial recovery of local governments, aided by a 10 trillion yuan debt relief plan, is expected to benefit companies in the Xinchuang sector [80]. 4. Policy and Industry Trends - The report discusses the issuance of long-term special bonds to support key strategic projects, including AI and low-altitude economy initiatives [126]. - It highlights the expected growth in the AI Agent market, projected to reach 852 billion yuan by 2028, driven by advancements in LLM algorithms [63]. 5. Key Companies - 海光信息 is noted for its strong performance in AI computing power, with significant product launches expected to enhance its market position [175]. - 神州数码 is recognized for its expanding AI server offerings and robust growth in its core business [180]. - 金山办公's WPS AI 2.0 is anticipated to drive revenue growth through enhanced user engagement and product offerings [186]. - 金蝶国际 is positioned to benefit from the accelerating digital transformation of enterprises, particularly in the ERP market [192]. - 同花顺 is expected to maintain stable growth due to its strong correlation with market activity and investor participation [198].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with net profit forecasted to be between 2.1 billion to 2.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [7]. - The Moroccan factory is anticipated to ramp up production significantly in 2025, with an expected output of 6 to 8 million tires, contributing positively to the company's performance [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 7.842 billion yuan - 2024E: 8.964 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.31%) - 2025E: 11.543 billion yuan (growth rate: 28.77%) - 2026E: 13.209 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.43%) [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 1.369 billion yuan - 2024E: 2.281 billion yuan (growth rate: 66.65%) - 2025E: 2.575 billion yuan (growth rate: 12.88%) - 2026E: 2.910 billion yuan (growth rate: 13.03%) [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.33 yuan - 2024E: 2.22 yuan - 2025E: 2.50 yuan - 2026E: 2.83 yuan [2][8] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 11.61% - 2024E: 17.09% - 2025E: 16.17% - 2026E: 15.45% [2][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 18.79 - 2024E: 11.27 - 2025E: 9.99 - 2026E: 8.83 [2][8] Market Dynamics - The tire market is experiencing growth, with China's tire export volume expected to reach 7.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-end automotive manufacturers and has received certifications from major global automakers, enhancing its brand influence [7]. Production Capacity Expansion - The Moroccan factory is set to begin large-scale production in 2025, with customer orders exceeding planned capacity, which is expected to significantly boost the company's performance in the coming years [7].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was strong during the reporting period, with a closing market value of 560.94 billion yuan on January 24, 2025, representing a 5.4% increase from the opening market value on January 13, 2025 [5][14]. - Among the 263 stocks listed on the BSE, 187 stocks increased in value, 1 remained unchanged, and 75 declined. Notably, Vision Intelligence saw a significant increase of 34.6%, while Tiangang Co. experienced a decline of 25.0% [5][17]. - The BSE's trading volume for the period was 153.92 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 5.85 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 53.9%, indicating improved liquidity compared to the previous period [9][10]. Market Review - The BSE's performance lagged behind the ChiNext by approximately 2.1 percentage points, as the ChiNext index rose by about 7.4% during the same period [14]. - The average market capitalization of BSE companies was 2.13 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of 9.23 billion yuan for ChiNext stocks and 11.75 billion yuan for Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks [9][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (TTM, median) for the BSE was 34.4 times, which is an increase of 1.5 times compared to the previous period [9][10]. Industry Performance - The computer sector performed relatively well, with a median increase of 0.3% in the industry, a significant improvement from a decline of 3.6% in the previous period [22]. - The environmental protection sector showed weaker performance, with a median decrease of 7.3%, down 6.0 percentage points from the previous period [22]. - The media industry had an exceptionally high P/E ratio (TTM, median) of 1474.6 times, reflecting a substantial increase of 114.8 times from the previous period [22]. Fund Performance - The overall performance of BSE-related theme funds was weak, with the Invesco Great Wall BSE Selected Mixed Fund A showing a slight decline of approximately 1.1%, underperforming the overall fund performance [25][26]. - The BSE index funds also exhibited weak performance, with the Chuangjin North BSE 50 Index Enhanced A declining by about 3.3% [25][26]. Company Announcements - A total of 40 companies updated their listing project review dynamics during the reporting period, with 32 companies inquired, 1 company approved by the listing committee, 6 terminated, and 1 accepted [54]. - Notable announcements included the release of the "Sustainable Development Report Preparation Guidelines" by the BSE, aimed at promoting high-quality development among listed companies [56].

Market Performance - The overall market performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was strong during the period from January 13 to January 24, 2025, with a closing market value of CNY 560.94 billion on January 24, representing a 5.4% increase from the opening market value on January 13[5]. - Out of 263 stocks on the BSE, 187 stocks increased, 1 stock remained flat, and 75 stocks decreased during this period[17]. Trading and Valuation Metrics - The total trading volume for the BSE during this period was CNY 153.92 billion, with an average weekly trading amount of CNY 5.85 billion and a turnover rate of 53.9%[3][9]. - The average market capitalization of companies on the BSE was CNY 21.33 billion, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of CNY 92.3 billion for the ChiNext and CNY 117.5 billion for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[9]. Sector Performance - The computer sector showed the best performance with a median increase of 0.3%, while the environmental sector had a median decrease of -7.3%[22]. - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the BSE was 34.4 times, which is an increase of 1.5 times compared to the previous period[9]. Fund Performance - The overall performance of BSE-related thematic and index funds was weak, with the best-performing fund, the Invesco North Exchange 50 Index Enhanced A, showing a decline of approximately -3.3%[25][26]. Regulatory Developments - The BSE released the "Guidelines for the Preparation of Sustainable Development Reports" on January 17, 2025, aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies[56]. - The annual evaluation results for the operational quality of securities companies were published on January 24, 2025, categorizing 103 companies into four tiers based on their performance[56]. Risk Factors - Key risks identified include policy risk, liquidity risk, and the risk of corporate earnings not meeting expectations[58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The robotics index outperformed the market, with a 4.0% increase, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.7 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.5 percentage points during the week of January 20 to January 26, 2025 [6][12]. - Significant advancements in robotics technology were highlighted, including the successful delivery of a quadruped robot by Cloud Deep to Singapore's power grid and the inauguration of China's first heterogeneous humanoid robot training ground [16][19]. - Blue Sky Technology has successfully delivered humanoid robot products to Zhiyuan Robotics, indicating strong collaboration in the humanoid robotics sector [23]. - Nvidia's visit to the national innovation center for embodied intelligent robots underscores the growing interest and investment in robotics technology [26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robotics index increased by 4.0%, outperforming major indices [6][12]. - The industry total market capitalization is approximately 34,796.07 billion, with a circulating market value of 33,860.77 billion [4]. Industry Dynamics - Cloud Deep's quadruped robot demonstrated advanced capabilities, including jumping and navigating complex terrains, showcasing the potential for commercial applications [16]. - The establishment of the first heterogeneous humanoid robot training ground aims to enhance robot performance through data collection and simulation training [19][20]. - Blue Sky Technology's collaboration with Zhiyuan Robotics highlights the growing market for humanoid robots, with significant production capabilities [23]. Financing Dynamics - Xinjingcheng Sensor completed nearly 100 million in angel round financing, indicating strong investor interest in sensor technology [35]. - Aoyi Technology secured nearly 100 million in B+ round financing to accelerate the commercialization of brain-machine interfaces and dexterous hand products [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including 恒瑞医药 (600276), 恩华药业 (002262), and 亿帆医药 (002019) [16][17]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry index increased by 0.09% during the week, underperforming the 沪深 300 index by 0.45 percentage points, ranking 13th among industries [5][11]. - The industry has seen a decline of 3.75% since the beginning of 2025, trailing the 沪深 300 index by 1.16 percentage points, ranking 20th [5][11]. - The current valuation level (PE-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 25.4 times, with a premium of 71.67% relative to the entire A-share market [5][26]. - The newly released anti-monopoly guidelines aim to regulate the pharmaceutical sector, promoting healthy and innovative development [12][13]. - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2025: innovation and international expansion, thematic investments, and dividend stocks [13][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs and their international expansion, particularly with the successful negotiation rates for innovative drugs in medical insurance [13]. - Recommended stocks include 恒瑞医药 (600276), 恩华药业 (002262), and 亿帆医药 (002019) among others [14][15]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance is analyzed, with the best-performing sub-sector being medical research outsourcing, which rose by 2.7% [5][30]. - The report notes that 224 stocks in the pharmaceutical sector had positive returns, while 256 stocks declined during the week [37]. News and Policies - The report discusses the impact of the newly released anti-monopoly guidelines on the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the need for compliance and innovation [12][13]. - It also mentions the ongoing disclosure of annual performance forecasts by pharmaceutical companies, suggesting investors pay attention to these developments [12]. Company Recommendations - The report provides a detailed analysis of recommended stocks, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [16][17][18]. - Specific companies such as 恒瑞医药 and 上海医药 are noted for their strong performance and innovative pipelines [17][18].