2024Q3持仓分析 全基医药持仓反弹 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年11月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：王彦迪 执业证号：S1250524040001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：wydi@swsc.com.cn 从公募基金持仓来看 1 24Q3全部公募基金占比9.79%，环比-0.37pp；剔除主动医药基金占比6.62%，环比+0.12pp；再剔 除指数基金医药持仓占比5.57%，环比+0.62pp；申万医药板块市值占比为6.7%，环比+0.36pp。 从公募基金持仓家数来看，公募基金数量前五的分别是恒瑞医药(573家)、迈瑞医疗(453家)、科伦药业 (204家)、药明康德(190家)、爱尔眼科(156家)；基金数量增加前五支股票分别是：恒瑞医药(+172家) 、药明康德(+83家)、百济神州-U(+64家)、泰格医药(+61家)、人福医药(+55家)。 从公募基金持仓占比情况来看，1）持仓占流通股比例前五分别为：微电生理-U(25%)、百利天恒- U(23%)、泰格医药(23%)、科 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 01 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报（11.25-12.1） 基础数据 [股票家数 Table_BaseData] 368 行业总市值(亿元) 50,522.13 流通市值(亿元) 48,842.85 行业市盈率 TTM 32.5 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM 12.5 2024 年 11 月第四周创新药周报 A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 2024[Table_Summary 年 11 月第四周，陆港两地创新药板块共计 ] 50 个股上涨，18 个股下跌。其 中涨幅前三为永泰生物-B（+22.03%）、荃信生物-B(+18.28%)、艾力斯-U (+14.43%)。跌幅前三为北海康成-B (-19.23%)、宜明昂科-B(-16.30%)、康宁杰瑞 制药-B(-12.61%)。 本周 A 股创新药板块下跌 3.03%，跑输沪深 300 指数 4.81pp，生物医药上涨 1.88%。近 6个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 49.68%，跑赢沪深 300指数 16.27p ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 01 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（11.25-11.29） 华为进军人形机器人赛道，小马智行登陆美股 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 01 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1125-1201） 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 Optimus 展示新一代灵巧手接球，人形机器人技术加速迭代 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------ ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 11 月 29 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（11.25-11.29） 数字化加快推进，"关税威胁"拉响警报 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | |--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 2024 年 Q1-3 | 疫苗行业跟踪报告（附批签发） | | | 西南证券研究发展中心 | | | 2024年11 月 | | 2012.08.13 | 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号： S1250520030002 电话： 021-68416017 邮箱： duxy@swsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：张殊豪 执业证号： S1250524030002 电话： 021-68416017 邮箱： zhshh@swsc.com.cm | 2024Q1-3疫苗批签发批次情况 重点疫苗批签发情况： 多联苗：2024Q1-3，五联苗、四联苗同比增长，民海生物四联苗批签发24批次（+4%）；赛诺菲巴斯德 五联苗批签发78批次(+11%)。 肺炎疫苗：2024Q1-3，13价肺炎疫苗批签发62批次(-9%)，其中辉瑞22批次，民海生物22批次，沃森生 物 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.40 CNY over the next six months [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience stable growth due to both external and internal conditions being favorable, including the expansion of thermal coal production capacity and the contribution from coking coal [1][3]. - The report highlights that the company is actively seeking new coal resources to meet its production target of 30 million tons per year during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][10]. - The dividend policy is encouraging, with a proposed dividend of 0.35 CNY per share for 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.8% and a total dividend payout of 504 million CNY, which is a 48.5% payout ratio, showing growth compared to 2022 [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is leveraging its state-owned advantages to enhance coal-chemical synergy and is focusing on the integrated development of coal, electricity, and transportation [31][34]. - The Red Two Coal Mine is expected to contribute significantly to new production capacity, with a design capacity of 240 million tons per year [37]. 2. Industry Analysis - The thermal coal market is expected to stabilize, with a projected production of 957 million tons in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - Coking coal production is facing a decline due to oversupply, with a 4.2% decrease in production to 1.18 billion tons in Q2 2024 [2]. 3. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record coal sales volume of approximately 14 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - Revenue for 2023 was reported at 8.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.6% to 1.04 billion CNY [39]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with a projected revenue of 10.04 billion CNY in 2025 [4][14]. 4. Profitability and Cost Control - The company has implemented measures to control costs and improve operational efficiency, leading to a projected gross margin of 58.7% in 2024, increasing to 63% by 2026 [10][11]. - The chemical business is expected to improve profitability, with a gradual reduction in losses due to better cost management and the introduction of intelligent equipment [3][10]. 5. Valuation - The report estimates a valuation of 10 times earnings for 2025, leading to a target price of 10.40 CNY based on coal price trends and the company's future capacity expansion [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) with a current price of $104.09 [1]. Core Views - Pinduoduo's Q3 2024 financial report shows a revenue of 99.35 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 44%. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 27.46 billion yuan, up 61% year-over-year. However, both revenue and profit fell short of market expectations due to increased investments in the domestic platform ecosystem and overseas compliance [1][2]. - As of September 2024, Pinduoduo's cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, amounted to 308.5 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash position compared to 284.9 billion yuan at the end of June 2024 and 202.8 billion yuan at the end of September 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue reached 49.35 billion yuan, growing 24% year-over-year, contributing nearly 50% of total revenue. Transaction services revenue was 50 billion yuan, a 72% year-over-year increase, but the growth rate slowed due to changes in commission rates and an increase in the share of Temu's semi-managed services [2][3]. - Pinduoduo launched several merchant support initiatives, including a 10 billion yuan reduction plan and a new merchant support plan, aimed at enhancing the platform and merchant ecosystem for long-term development [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 61.7%, 27.6%, and 20.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 116.5 billion yuan, 148.2 billion yuan, and 188.4 billion yuan for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9.0, 7.1, and 5.6 [3][4]. - The report expresses confidence in Pinduoduo's ability to capture market share in both domestic and international markets, maintaining the "Buy" rating and continuous recommendation [3].

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 22 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 买入 （首次） 当前价：10.55 元 东亚机械（301028）机械设备 目标价：13.14 元（6 个月） 永磁螺杆机全国领先，凸显成长性 [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑：1）空压机为通用机械，市场规模约 ] 600亿元，其中螺杆空压机产量 50-60 万台/年，对应 150 亿元左右的市场空间，公司螺杆空压机营收市占率不 足 5%，提升空间大。2）空压机行业市场集中度低，未来有望向头部企业集中。 无油螺杆机、离心机等高端产品国产化率不足 10%，国产替代空间大。3）公司 自主研发螺杆主机，永磁螺杆机领域占据全国领先地位，逐步提升市占率。 2019-2023 年营收 CAGR 为 11%，归母净利润 CAGR 为 12%，高于行业 4% 的增速。螺杆机毛利率 30%以上，高于行业平均。 空压机为通用机械，市场规模约 600 亿元，高效节能为行业发展趋势。空压机 压缩机属于通用设备，广泛应用于机械制造、石化化工、矿山冶金、纺织服装、 医疗、食品、水泥、污水处理、电力行业等领域，其中螺杆空压机为空压机的 重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the CXO industry, indicating a recovery in revenue and potential valuation opportunities due to macroeconomic factors [1][4]. Core Insights - The CXO industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in revenue, with a projected increase in global pharmaceutical R&D investment at a steady growth rate of 2.6% from 2021 to 2028 [3][17]. - The report highlights a significant decline in investment activities in the domestic market, with Q3 2024 showing a total financing amount of 76.7 billion yuan, down 74.4% year-on-year [3][31]. - The report identifies key players in the CXO sector, including WuXi AppTec, Tigermed, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery and innovation in drug development [3][40]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Perspective - The report notes that the geopolitical landscape is stabilizing, which may lead to a recovery in the pessimistic expectations surrounding the sector. The Federal Reserve's two interest rate cuts this year are expected to improve the investment environment for biopharmaceuticals [4][7]. - The valuation of the CXO sector has returned to historical lows, with individual stock valuations showing significant differentiation [3][15]. Industry Perspective - Global pharmaceutical R&D investment is projected to grow steadily, with a total investment of 238 billion USD in 2021, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% from 2014 [17][19]. - The report indicates that the number of new INDs and NDAs in China has seen substantial growth, with 1,561 new INDs (+26.6%) and 257 new NDAs (+61.6%) approved in 2023 [36][37]. Company Perspective - The revenue of 20 representative CXO companies reached 628 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 33.9% [40][44]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue for these companies was 226.1 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6% [44][44]. - The report highlights that while revenue is recovering, profit margins remain under pressure due to the high base effect from previous commercial orders [40][44].