Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 260.4 billion yuan (yoy +5.1%), with Non-GAAP operating profit at 13.1 billion yuan (yoy +17.9%) and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.2 billion yuan (yoy +23.9%) [1] - JD Retail's operating margin remained stable at 5.2% yoy, with a sequential improvement of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of September 2024 was 33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 billion yuan from June 2024 and 5.8 billion yuan yoy, primarily due to delayed accounts payable and inventory buildup for the trade-in program [1] - The trade-in policy drove a rebound in 3C and home appliance revenue, with 3C and home appliance sales reaching 122.6 billion yuan (yoy +2.7%), reversing the -4.6% decline in Q2 2024 [1] - JD Logistics saw a significant improvement in profitability, with operating profit surging 624% yoy to 2.09 billion yuan and operating margin increasing to 4.7% from 0.7% in Q3 2023 [1] - JD's Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 exceeded expectations, with active users growing by double digits, daily active buyers increasing by over 20%, and purchase frequency also growing by double digits [1] Business Performance by Segment JD Retail - Revenue: 225 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) [1] - Operating profit: 11.6 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) [1] - Operating margin: 5.2% (flat yoy) [1] JD Logistics - Revenue: 44.4 billion yuan (yoy +6.6%) [1] - Operating profit: 2.09 billion yuan (yoy +624%) [1] - Operating margin: 4.7% (up from 0.7% in Q3 2023) [1] New Businesses (Including Dada, Jingxi, Overseas, and JD Property) - Revenue: 5 billion yuan (yoy -25.7%) [1] - Operating loss: 600 million yuan [1] Key Strategies - Low-price strategy: JD has implemented a matrix of low-price activities, including the "JD Super 18" event every month, weekly "Black Friday" promotions, and daily "Midnight Sale" events [1] - Trade-in program: The policy has successfully driven growth in the 3C and home appliance categories [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.26%, 5.09%, and 5.00%, respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.7 billion yuan, 49.2 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - Long-term profit margin target is set at high single digits [1] Revenue Breakdown by Category Electronics and Home Appliances - Revenue: 553.3 billion yuan (2024E), 568.3 billion yuan (2025E), 585.3 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 2.7% (2024E), 2.7% (2025E), 3.0% (2026E) [6] Daily Necessities - Revenue: 360 billion yuan (2024E), 387 billion yuan (2025E), 414.1 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 8.3% (2024E), 7.5% (2025E), 7.0% (2026E) [6] Platform and Advertising Services - Revenue: 88 billion yuan (2024E), 91.6 billion yuan (2025E), 95.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 3.9% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.0% (2026E) [6] Logistics and Other Services - Revenue: 140.3 billion yuan (2024E), 152.9 billion yuan (2025E), 165.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 9.0% (2024E), 9.0% (2025E), 8.0% (2026E) [6] Key Assumptions - Electronics and home appliances: Continued growth driven by trade-in policies and government subsidies, with 3C and home appliance revenue expected to increase in Q4 2024 [5] - Daily necessities: Lower shipping thresholds and optimized platform rules are expected to sustain a 7%+ GMV growth rate for 2025-2026 [5]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 27 日 证券研究报告•公司动态跟踪报告 当前价：6.16 港元 诺诚健华（9969.HK）医疗保健 目标价：——港元 股权激励彰显发展信心，进入 2.0 快速发展新时期 [Table_Summary 事件：公司拟定《] 2024年科创板限制性股票激励计划（草案）》，拟向激励对象 授予的限制性股票数量为 1233.775万股。本计划限制性股票的授予价格（含预 留授予）为每股 6.65 元。 股权激励彰显发展信心。本激励计划首次授予部分限制性股票的考核年度为 2025-2028 年四个会计年度，每个会计年度考核一次。业绩考核目标设为 A、B、 C 三个考核指标，以 2025 年为例，C 考核目标为营业收入不低于 15 亿元，启 动 6个新的临床试验；B 考核目标为营业收入不低于 17.5亿元，启动 7个新的 临床试验；A 考核目标为营业收入不低于 20亿元，启动 8个新的临床试验。我 们认为，鉴于 2024 年前三季度公司收入达 6.98亿元，其中三季度收入达 2.78 亿元，2024 年公司营业收入有望达 10 亿元，2025 年 15 亿元的收 ...

202X`4[Table_ReportInfo] 年 11 月 09 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所周报（11.4-11.8） 林泰新材过会，聚星科技将上市 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Summary] 周观点：本周，北交所整体表现较强：北证 50指数较周一（11月 4日）开盘 市值上升 21.5%，周成交额为 2491.3亿元，高于上周水平。本周内北交所 256 只个股中 247股票上涨，1只股票持平，8只股票下跌，个股表现不一，其中 殷图网联间内上涨 126.3%，艾能聚区间内下跌 15.0%。本周北交所主题基金 产品与北交所指数基金产品整体表现均较强。本周，共 10家企业更新发行上 市项目审核动态，1家企业上市委会议通过，5家企业已问询，2家企业注册， 2 家企业已受理。北交所市场在本周整体呈现上升趋势，北证 50 指数在 11 月 8日的收盘价为 1391.4点。北交所市场近期受到政策的持续关注和支持。 同时，并购重组政策也在升温，北交所将发挥资本市场在并购重组中的主渠 道作用，推动提高企业运用并购重组工具的能力。建议关注具有成长性和估 值优势的个股。 行情回顾：本周，北交所整体表现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.72 CNY over the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with expectations for growth in the breeding sector. The report highlights that the demand for animal health products is influenced by the cyclical nature of the breeding industry, particularly the changes in livestock inventory [2][4]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, which is crucial for enhancing its core competitiveness. The R&D expenditure reached 20.79 million CNY in Q3 2024, accounting for 7.85% of revenue, indicating a focus on innovation [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in pig supply and prices in Q4 2024, which is expected to boost the demand for animal health products, particularly vaccines [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 666 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 261 million CNY, down 27.09% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 265 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 10.35% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.2% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding pigs, which has led to reduced demand for vaccines and other animal health products. However, it also points out that the demand for vaccines is expected to rise as the breeding industry recovers [2][4]. R&D and Innovation - The company has made significant strides in R&D, obtaining 49 new veterinary drug registration certificates. The focus on developing new vaccine platforms is expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.83 CNY, 1.04 CNY, and 1.28 CNY, respectively. The report suggests a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18, 15, and 12 for these years [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.76 yuan over the next six months, based on a current price of 15.27 yuan [1][42]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its main business due to the implementation of operational reforms and competitive bidding mechanisms, leading to an increase in land leasing income [2][25]. - The company is positioned as a leading agricultural enterprise in China, benefiting from rich land resources and a favorable geographical location in the world's major black soil belts, which enhances the quality and competitiveness of its agricultural products [2][32]. - The company plans to produce approximately 12 billion jin of high-quality crops, including rice, corn, and soybeans, in 2024, continuing to explore potential in green and organic products [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Heilongjiang Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Bureau, was restructured in December 2020 and operates in a region with a total land area of 53,600 square kilometers, making it a significant grain production base in China [17][19]. Company Analysis - The company has a total land area of 12.96 million acres, with 11.58 million acres of arable land, and operates 16 agricultural subsidiaries focused on producing major crops [2][32]. - Land rental prices have been increasing in line with rising grain prices, which has positively impacted the company's land leasing business [2][30]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.62 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.72 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 23, and 21 [3][42]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in land leasing and agricultural material sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 8% for land leasing and 5% for agricultural materials from 2024 to 2026 [37][41].

[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 12 月 01 日 证券研究报告•金融工程动态报告 行业配置报告（2024 年 12 月） 行业配置策略与 ETF 组合构建 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | 摘要 | | 西南证券研究发展中心 | | | [Table_Summary] 相似预期差行业轮动模型 | [Table_Author ...

202X`4[Table_ReportInfo] 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所周报（11.25-11.29） 五新隧装拉开北交所定增并购序幕， 胜业电气上市首日涨超 4 倍 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Summary] 周观点：本周，北交所整体表现较强：北证 50指数较周一（11月 25日）开 盘市值下降 1.0%，周成交额为 1640.8 亿元，低于上周水平。本周内北交所 259 只个股中有 137股票上涨，2只股票持平，120只股票下跌。其中，胜业 电气区间内上涨 405.9%，派诺科技区间内下跌 18.1%。本周北交所主题基金 产品与北交所指数基金产品整体表现均较弱。本周，共 7 家企业更新发行上 市项目审核动态，1家企业上市委会议通过，3家企业已问询，1家企业注册， 2 家企业已终止。11月 29日，北交所网站发布消息，为落实证监会《上市公 司监管指引第 10号—市值管理》《上市公司监管指引第 3号—上市公司现金 分红》《上市公司股份回购规则》相关要求，本所制定、修订了估值提升计 划、现金分红、股份回购相关公告格式模板。北交所作为服务创新型中小企 业的重要平台， ...

Economic Growth and Policy Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, driven by policy support and domestic demand, with potential external shocks from Trump's policies[7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, supported by domestic and international restocking and policy incentives[20] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 9% in 2025, fueled by increased issuance of special bonds and local government bonds[31] Real Estate and Investment Trends - Real estate investment growth is expected to converge to -3% in 2025, with policy support reducing its drag on economic growth[44] - Land transaction activity has increased significantly since September 2024, with land premium rates around 4%[43] Consumption and Inflation - Social retail sales growth is expected to rebound to 5% in 2025, driven by policy support for consumption and service sectors[55] - CPI growth is forecasted to rise to 1-1.5% in 2025, with food prices stabilizing and non-food prices remaining weak[72] Trade and External Factors - Export growth is expected to be around 3% in 2025, with a potential boost from preemptive exports before new tariffs take effect[82] - Import growth is projected to reach 2% in 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and lower base effects[85] Industrial and Technological Shifts - The shift of industries to western China is accelerating, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like new energy and electronics[4] - New infrastructure investment, particularly in digital and AI sectors, is expected to grow significantly in 2025[35]

[2024 Table_IndustryInfo 年 11 月 30 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（11.25-11.29） 基础数据 [股票家数 Table_BaseData] 368 行业总市值(亿元) 50,522.13 流通市值(亿元) 48,842.85 行业市盈率 TTM 32.5 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM 12.5 新版医保目录发布，加大力度支持创新 [行情回顾： Table_Summary 本周医药生物指数 ] 上涨 2.95%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.63 个百分 点，行业涨跌幅排名第 13。2024 年初以来至今，医药行业下跌 9.29%，跑输 沪深 300 指数 23.43 个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第 32。本周医药行业估值水 平(PE-TTM)为 27.24 倍，相对全部 A 股溢价率为 82%(-2pp)，相对剔除银行 后全部 A 股溢价率为 35.56%(-1.47pp)，相对沪深 300 溢价率为 130.34%(- 1.16pp)。本周相对表现最好的子板块是线下药店，上涨 3.8%，年初以来表现 最好的前三板块分别是医药流通、化学制剂、原料药， ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 01 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报（11.25-12.1） 基础数据 [股票家数 Table_BaseData] 368 行业总市值(亿元) 50,522.13 流通市值(亿元) 48,842.85 行业市盈率 TTM 32.5 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM 12.5 2024 年 11 月第四周创新药周报 A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 2024[Table_Summary 年 11 月第四周，陆港两地创新药板块共计 ] 50 个股上涨，18 个股下跌。其 中涨幅前三为永泰生物-B（+22.03%）、荃信生物-B(+18.28%)、艾力斯-U (+14.43%)。跌幅前三为北海康成-B (-19.23%)、宜明昂科-B(-16.30%)、康宁杰瑞 制药-B(-12.61%)。 本周 A 股创新药板块下跌 3.03%，跑输沪深 300 指数 4.81pp，生物医药上涨 1.88%。近 6个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 49.68%，跑赢沪深 300指数 16.27p ...