Industry Overview - The Somali private sector accounts for an estimated 95% of total jobs created, with private businesses providing almost all products and services, including traditionally state-delivered services like energy, ICT connectivity, and water [19] - The manufacturing sector represents only 15% of established businesses, generating about 0.8% of total jobs, and is less productive compared to other sectors [19] - Livestock, fishery, and agricultural goods dominate the productive sector, accounting for 26% of employment and 73% of exports, but these sectors are underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate shocks [19][106] Private Sector Challenges - The private sector is concentrated in nontradable sectors, with 69% of rural employment and over 90% of urban employment in retail, petty trading, and other nontradable services [19] - A few large conglomerates dominate key sectors such as finance, ICT, transportation, tourism, energy, real estate, and commerce, leveraging their influence to distort and capture markets [20] - Most firms are small, informal, and necessity-driven, with SMEs accounting for only 6% of established businesses and 2.4% of total employment, leading to low productivity and job generation [21] Enabling Sectors - Access to reliable electricity is low and inequitable, with Somalia ranking in the upper 5% globally for power cost and 15% for power expenditure as a share of gross national income per household [28] - The financial sector has grown significantly, with total assets and customer deposits at commercial banks more than quadrupling between 2018 and 2023, but access to finance for MSMEs remains a key challenge [31][33] - Digital connectivity has improved, with mobile network services becoming more affordable, but broadband penetration and use of bandwidth remain low compared to regional peers [36] Recommendations - Establish legitimate, effective, and equitable formal institutional and regulatory frameworks to enable economic transformation and increase efficiency-seeking FDI [43] - Promote private participation in key enabling sectors such as energy, transport, and education, and improve public stewardship to address service delivery gaps [45] - Improve growth and productivity of selected value chains like livestock, crops, and fisheries to deliver short- to medium-term inclusive dividends and create jobs [45]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the importance of transitioning to a circular economy (CE) in Türkiye, which presents both challenges and opportunities for industries [18][19][20] Core Report Insights - The transition to a circular economy in Türkiye is driven by both environmental sustainability goals and the need to align with the EU's tightening environmental policies, particularly under the EU-Türkiye Customs Union [19][20] - Türkiye's material demand is expected to increase despite improvements in material intensity, with non-metallic minerals dominating the material mix [35][36] - Circular economy policies can support Türkiye's climate mitigation objectives, potentially reducing CO2 emissions by over 7% in 2030 on top of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario [38][39] - A combination of demand-side and supply-side policies is necessary to achieve circular economy targets, with demand-side measures more effective in reducing non-metallic mineral use and supply-side measures better suited for increasing metal ore recycling [43][44] Macroeconomic Impacts of the CE Transition in Türkiye - Türkiye's economy is projected to see an absolute increase in the use of all material inputs, driven by GDP and population growth, with material intensity declining for all commodities except metal ores [36] - The economic dividend of supporting the CE transition can be reaped by addressing Türkiye's existing skills gap, particularly in high-skilled labor [49] - The costs of implementing CE policies are relatively moderate, with real GDP decreasing by about 1.6% in the combined scenario, but this does not account for co-benefits such as reduced air pollution and improved ecosystem services [47] Positioning Turkish Industry in Circular Global Value Chains - Nearly one-fifth of Turkish firms have adopted resource-efficient production technologies, with higher adoption rates in the garments and textiles sectors compared to fabricated metal products and machinery sectors [55] - Two possible CE futures for Türkiye are outlined: a 'light' transition focusing on material efficiency and recycling, and an 'ambitious' transition involving comprehensive product redesign and higher value-added goods [62] - Factors enabling CE readiness include effective traceability, digital monitoring systems, access to recycled inputs, and technological upgrades [66][67] Prioritizing Industries for Building a Competitive Circular Economy in Türkiye - Strong connections between industries are essential for a successful circular economy, with weak links currently observed between high-potential circular industries and their supporting sectors [80][82] - The analysis identifies six priority value chains for Türkiye's CE transition: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, plastics, fertilizers, and chemicals, with 80 core industries and 75 supporting industries identified [84] - Policies for a competitive CE transition include boosting competition in key industries, strengthening primary and manufacturing industries, and fostering collaboration within the tertiary sector [91][93] Next Steps for Türkiye's CE Transition - Türkiye should focus on enhancing the competitiveness of core industries, fostering the growth of upstream and downstream industries, and promoting investments in key industries that support circularity [96][99][100] - Pilot regulations within vital sectors with strong interrelations are recommended, along with broadening the use of network analysis to bolster monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) objectives [106]

Industry Overview - São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is experiencing significant emigration, driven by limited economic and employment prospects, particularly among the younger generation [7] - The country's economy heavily relies on public development aid (APD), making it vulnerable to external funding fluctuations, with GDP growth stagnating in recent years [16] - Poverty remains widespread, with three-quarters of the population at risk of falling or remaining below the poverty line, and significant challenges in human capital, particularly in educational outcomes [16] Migration Trends - Migration from STP is significant and increasing, with Portugal being the primary destination, hosting over half of the diaspora, followed by Angola and Gabon [17] - The introduction of the CPLP mobility agreement in 2022 has facilitated migration to Portugal, reducing legal and administrative barriers for citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries, including STP [17] - Migrants from STP are predominantly young, urban, and moderately more likely to come from higher-income brackets, although vulnerable populations also migrate [17] Economic Impact of Migration - Migration currently brings limited economic benefits to STP due to low and irregular remittances, high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and precarious jobs for migrants abroad [7] - Remittances are a crucial income source for STP households, especially for the elderly, poorer households, and female-headed households, but the volume is relatively low compared to the size of the diaspora [22] - The cost of sending remittances to STP through formal channels is higher than the Sub-Saharan African average, and most remittances are sent informally through third parties [27][28] Social Impact of Migration - Migration can disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional well-being [7] - Vulnerable families often receive low-value and irregular remittances, as migrants are frequently confined to low-wage jobs abroad, limiting financial support and household stability post-migration [39] - The emigration of an adult, especially a parent, requires critical adjustments in family dynamics, often transferring care responsibilities to other family members, which can negatively impact children's development [41] Policy Recommendations - Improve the employability of youth both domestically and abroad to ensure viable economic prospects for those who choose to stay and productive jobs for those who wish to emigrate [46] - Establish labor mobility agreements with key destination countries to align migrant skills with labor market needs [50] - Strengthen migration management systems to better support migrant workers, engage the diaspora, and generate data for policy-making [52] - Reduce barriers to receiving remittances by promoting the development of a digital financial services ecosystem that enhances financial inclusion [54] - Protect and support family members of migrants who remain in the country, particularly focusing on youth and children, through social assistance programs [55]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in clean tech manufacturing across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, driven by EU policies aimed at onshoring clean tech production [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The EU's Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) targets sourcing at least 40% of net-zero technologies domestically by 2030, creating opportunities for Central and Eastern European countries to expand production in key clean tech value chains such as electric vehicle batteries, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolyzers [3][8] - Poland stands out with the highest export potential and investment requirements in absolute terms, while Bulgaria and Croatia show greater potential relative to their economic size [3][10] - The wind energy value chain offers the most onshoring opportunities, while the electrolyzer value chain presents the fewest [29] Methodology Summary - The analysis uses a five-step framework to identify onshoring potential, including sector filtering, indicator development, composite index creation, export projections, and investment projections [11][12] - Key indicators include demand factors (e.g., EU reliance on non-EU inputs), supply factors (e.g., export competitiveness), and market access ease (e.g., logistics performance) [14][15][16] - A composite Onshoring Attractiveness (OA) index is created using Principal Component Analysis, categorizing opportunities into low, medium, and high attractiveness [23][24] Export and Investment Projections - Under the NZIA scenario, clean tech exports from the 4CEE countries to the EU27 are projected to quintuple by 2030, with Poland capturing 60% of additional exports [43][46] - Investment needs to meet export projections range from $1 billion in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania to $5 billion in Poland, with EV battery manufacturing requiring the largest share of investments [55][57] - Clean tech exports are expected to contribute 1.2% to 3.7% of GDP in the 4CEE countries by 2030, with Croatia leading in relative terms [44][57] Policy Implications - Poland is well-positioned to onshore clean tech production, but challenges include labor force upskilling and declining working-age populations [61] - Fiscal constraints in 4CEE countries limit the use of industrial subsidies, necessitating broader policy interventions beyond subsidies to achieve industrial goals [62][63]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the challenges and opportunities in China's economic landscape, particularly in the property sector and domestic demand [28][29][32] Core Views - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by subdued domestic demand and a significant drag from the property sector, which saw real estate investment contract by 11.5% y/y in July-November [28] - The government has implemented incremental policy stimulus, including monetary easing and fiscal measures, but the impact has been constrained by weak credit demand and persistent challenges in the property sector [29][32] - The report forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with inflation expected to remain low at 0.4% in 2024 before rising to 1.1% in 2025 [30][32] Recent Economic Developments - Domestic demand has weakened, with retail sales growing at 2.8% y/y in July-November, about half of the 2019 growth rate, reflecting weak consumer confidence due to falling property prices and sluggish income growth [28][66] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have remained robust, growing by 9.6% and 11.4% y/y respectively in July-November, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [28][66] - Carbon emissions declined by 0.7% y/y in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by reduced output in construction-related industries, despite a 6.6% y/y increase in electricity production [100][101] Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - The outlook for China's economy is subject to domestic and external risks, including a persistent downturn in the property sector, tighter local government financing, and global trade uncertainties [33][149] - Policy implications include the need for structural reforms to address vulnerabilities such as high property developer and local government debt, low consumption, and an aging population [34][152] - The report emphasizes the importance of fostering domestic demand, supporting a sustainable property sector recovery, and managing local government financial risks through fiscal reforms [34][157] Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - China's secure middle class has expanded significantly, growing from 9.8% of the population in 2010 to 32.1% in 2021, with rural areas seeing a larger absolute reduction in low-income population compared to urban areas [37][165][177] - Education and wage-earning jobs are key pathways to upward mobility, with 62.6% of the secure middle class and 71.2% of the upper-income class belonging to the salaried or wage-earning group [183][184] - Future pathways to upward mobility will likely depend more on higher education, as the economy shifts towards high-value services and innovation-driven industries, with significant gaps in educational attainment between urban and rural areas [191][195]

Industry Overview - Agriculture accounts for 70% of global freshwater withdrawals, making it a highly water-intensive sector [3] - Climate change is exacerbating the challenges of producing enough food to feed the planet [3] - The 2030 Water Resources Group (WRG) is driving sustainable water use in agriculture and building climate-resilient food systems [3] WRG's Core Initiatives - WRG is a global public-private partnership hosted by the World Bank, aiming to bridge the gap between water supply and demand [4] - Key focus areas include promoting water-efficient agricultural practices, improving farming methods to reduce GHG emissions, and fostering market innovations [5] - WRG enhances agricultural value chain sustainability, improves market access for farmers, and ensures stable food supplies while protecting water resources [5] Key Projects and Achievements India: Climate-Smart Rice Cultivation - In Uttar Pradesh, WRG is helping smallholder farmers adopt water-saving practices and increase yields [9] - Goals include reaching 1 million smallholder farmers, increasing micro-irrigation coverage by 5x, expanding direct-seeded rice area by 10x, and reducing GHG emissions by 60% over five years [9] Bangladesh: Water-Efficient Agriculture - In water-scarce Barind Tract, WRG supports mango, rice, and other crops through farmer hubs offering advanced irrigation technologies [10] - Over five years, the project has trained 19,500 farmers and impacted 58,500 beneficiaries, increasing rice yields by 400 kg/ha and mango yields by 200x [10] Innovative Irrigation Solutions - WRG has developed and implemented pioneering solutions in Africa and Asia to improve yields and water use efficiency [11] - Examples include the world's first and largest community drip irrigation project in Karnataka, India, benefiting 500 smallholders and saving 24 million cubic meters of water [12] - In Kenya, a new financing model for modern irrigation systems has been piloted, contributing to broader farmer-led irrigation development [12] - In South Africa, an automated water management system has reduced water distribution losses by up to 20% and expanded to 21 major irrigation schemes [12] Future Directions - WRG is leveraging its public-private partnership model to pursue bold solutions, such as low-methane rice programs in South and Southeast Asia [6] - These initiatives aim to significantly reduce global methane emissions while enhancing agricultural productivity and water efficiency at scale [6]

Longitudinal Survey Challenges - Longitudinal surveys face challenges in maintaining accuracy over time due to sample attrition, migration, and sample fatigue, which introduce measurement errors[2] - Sample attrition, caused by deaths and relocations, along with the impact of new populations and migration flows, leads to underrepresentation in surveys[2] - Correct panel survey design and implementation require methods to address these issues at different stages: sampling design, data collection, and estimation[7] Proposed Methodology - The study proposes a weighted sharing method-based estimator that provides more accurate individual-level statistics compared to current estimators used in Uganda's national panel survey[2] - The proposed method shows higher stability when changing samples, particularly in cross-sectional estimates based on transition matrices[2] - The methodology focuses on improving survey quality by addressing sampling design, data collection, and estimation stages[8] Empirical Application - The methodology was experimentally evaluated using data from Uganda's national panel survey and the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS)[2] - The study applied the proposed methodology to LSMS-ISA data, using Uganda's national panel survey waves from 2009, 2013, and 2015 as a case study[10] - The empirical evaluation demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the quality of survey estimates[10] Data Collection and Tracking - Data collection improvements include flexible methods like phone interviews to reach non-responsive populations and minimal variable data collection for attritors[7] - Tracking rules are defined to balance the cost of tracking migrants with the potential bias introduced by their exclusion from the sample[29] - Proxy interviews and minimal variable sets are used to collect data from non-respondents and migrants, reducing sample attrition bias[53] LSMS-ISA Survey Overview - LSMS-ISA surveys are nationally representative longitudinal household surveys focusing on the relationship between living standards and agriculture[58] - The surveys track households and individuals over time, incorporating new members like immigrants and newborns to maintain representativeness[61] - Tracking methods vary across LSMS-ISA surveys, with some focusing on households and others on individuals, impacting representativeness and cost[63] Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) Case Study - The UNPS is a multi-purpose household panel survey in Uganda, providing data on income dynamics, consumption, and agriculture[71] - The study used UNPS data from 2009/10, 2013/14, and 2015/16 waves, with final datasets including 18,313, 17,377, and 15,905 individuals respectively[72] - The empirical evaluation of UNPS data showed that 45% of individuals from the 2009/10 wave were re-interviewed in 2013/14, with 30% of the sample being new individuals[73]

授权公开披露 授权公开披露 授权公开披露 授权公开披露 政策研究工作文件 11016 通过需求保护野生动物 减少和供应替代方案 金沙萨餐厅的两项实验 Abdoulaye Cis se Gabriel Eng lander Daniel J . Ingram 发展经济学发展研究小组 2025 年 1 月 一个经过验证的可重复性包可在以下网址获取：http: //reproducibility.worldbank.org，点击以直接访问。 here 政策研究工作文件 11016 Abstract 中部非洲城市野生动物消费的总体水平可能正在 耗尽野生动物种群。本研究通过在刚果民主共和 国金沙萨的两家餐馆进行两个随机对照试验，探 讨了需求侧和供给侧干预措施对野肉消费的影响 ：需求侧实验和供给侧实验。在需求侧实验中，5 44名参与者被给予一张他们选择的餐厅的优惠券 ，并随机分配观看一则旨在减少野肉消费的治疗 视频或一则与野肉无关的控制视频。治疗组的参 与者比对照组少31%的可能性订购野肉，但这种 差异并不具有统计显著性，且可能受到社会期望 偏差的影响。在供给侧实验中，研究的问题是随 机降低莫阿姆贝鸡（Moambe Ch ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The report focuses on estimating poverty levels across 126 districts in Pakistan using a small area estimation (SAE) methodology, which combines data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2018-19 and the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) 2019-20 [3][7][8] - The SAE methodology used in this report differs from standard implementations by using a household survey (PSLM) as the target dataset instead of census data, which provides additional information for modeling but introduces additional uncertainty due to sampling [9][10] - The report highlights significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across districts, with the highest poverty rates found in Sindh and Balochistan provinces, while the lowest rates are concentrated in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) [75][76] Methodology - The SAE methodology employed in the report uses the Census Empirical Best (EB) estimator, which is an advanced version of the ELL method, to estimate poverty rates at the district level [14][15][16] - The methodology involves fitting a linear model to predict welfare (consumption) based on household characteristics and then using this model to estimate consumption in the target dataset (PSLM) [17][18][19] - The report uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to generate multiple welfare vectors and calculate poverty rates, with adjustments made to account for measurement errors in household size [20][21][22] Data Sources - The primary data sources for the report are the HIES 2018-19 and PSLM 2019-20 surveys, which provide detailed consumption and household characteristic data at the provincial and district levels, respectively [24][27][28] - The HIES 2018-19 survey covers 24,809 households across Pakistan, while the PSLM 2019-20 survey includes 170,246 households, allowing for more precise district-level poverty estimates [27][28] - The report notes that the PSLM 2019-20 survey was conducted using Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technology for the first time, which improved data collection efficiency [30] Key Findings - The report identifies significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across Pakistan, with the highest poverty rates in Sindh and Balochistan provinces and the lowest rates in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and ICT [75][76] - The poverty gap analysis shows that in 69 districts, a relatively small increase in welfare could significantly reduce poverty, as the poverty gap (FGT1) is less than 5% [80][81] - The report also highlights the spatial clustering of poverty, with high-poverty clusters in southern KP and northern Balochistan and low-poverty clusters in the fertile plains of Punjab [87][88] Provincial Results - In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the poverty map includes former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Frontier Regions (FR) for the first time, with South Waziristan, Mohmand, and Tank districts showing the highest poverty rates [95][96] - Punjab has the lowest poverty rates among the provinces, with the highest poverty rates concentrated in the southwestern districts of Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, and Muzaffargarh [97][98] - Sindh has the highest poverty rates in its southern districts, particularly Tharparkar, which has a poverty rate of 76.9% and a high poverty gap of 19% [99][101] - Balochistan exhibits the highest variability in poverty rates and gaps, with districts like Kech, Zhob, and Sheikh Saedullah (Surab) having both high poverty rates and large poverty gaps [102][103]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the water data revolution in Africa, particularly addressing the data gaps in transboundary water management [1][2] - Africa's water resources are under increasing pressure due to population growth, economic expansion, and climate change, with 90% of water resources located in 63 international river basins [17][18] - Outdated data systems and limited hydrological monitoring networks hinder effective water resource management, especially in transboundary contexts [19][20] Core Objectives of the Water Data Revolution (WDR) - The WDR aims to enhance regional institutional capacity and improve transboundary water management in Africa through the application of remote sensing (RS) data platforms [31] - The initiative seeks to fill critical data gaps by leveraging advanced technologies like RS, providing scalable and cost-effective solutions for monitoring water resources in remote areas [31] - The project focuses on reducing the cost and complexity of water data collection and analysis, making data accessible to decision-makers and promoting data-driven approaches in sustainable water management [31] Strategic Pillars of the WDR Pillar A: End-User Assessment and Needs Identification - Pillar A assesses the data needs and capabilities of African River Basin Organizations (RBOs), identifying gaps in data collection, technical capacity, and data-sharing practices [34] - The assessment highlights the need for training in RS data, data products, and analytical tools, with a focus on affordability and effectiveness [41] - Key areas of interest for RBOs include water accounting, drought monitoring, and flood management, with water accounting being particularly critical for transboundary decision-making [42][43] Pillar B: Initial Workshops and Capacity Building - Pillar B focuses on enhancing the accessibility and usability of RS data through targeted online training and workshops [36] - Workshops cover topics such as data collection techniques, cloud-based platforms, and interactive dashboards, with tools like Google Earth Engine and Hydrosheds being key components [51] - The capacity-building efforts aim to equip RBOs with the skills needed for sustainable, data-driven water management, with a focus on practical applications like water allocation and resource planning [36][52] Pillar C: Adapting Innovative Tools for Water Resource Management (WRM) - Pillar C pilots customized, low-cost RS data solutions with selected RBOs, focusing on real-time monitoring through Water Accounting (WA) dashboards [37] - The WA dashboards provide detailed multi-year water accounts, offering insights into water balance components, usage patterns, and climate change impacts [78] - The dashboards are developed using Tableau Desktop, leveraging satellite imagery and RS data to provide interactive and visually appealing data visualizations [79][80] Key Achievements and Strategic Insights - The WDR has made significant progress in addressing data gaps in transboundary water management through targeted capacity-building initiatives and the development of advanced tools like the WA dashboards [99] - Public domain data and cloud-based analytical tools have enabled RBOs to access and analyze critical water resource data, fostering transparency and collaboration across borders [100][101] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of capacity building and data accessibility, with training programs designed to be scalable and sustainable, ensuring long-term technical competence within RBOs [106] - Water accounting tools have proven to be essential for integrated water resource management, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing water availability, usage, and sustainability [108] Future Directions - Future efforts should focus on tailoring tools and capacity-building programs to the specific needs of individual RBOs, considering the varying levels of technical expertise and data availability [109] - Joint training sessions and shared data practices can enhance regional cooperation, fostering mutual understanding and trust among RBOs and their member states [110] - Addressing the mismatch between the needs of individual member states and the services provided by RBOs will be crucial for ensuring equitable and effective transboundary water management [112]