证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 比亚迪(002594) 目标价: 昨收盘:355.00 BYD 的全球 SHENZHEN 时刻 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) 2% 24% 46% 68% 90% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 比亚迪 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 30.39/11.62 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 10,788.68/4,1 | | | 26.57 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 403.4/206.58 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<比亚迪：从批量爆款到全面智 能>>--2025-03-26 <<比亚迪时刻：从批量爆款到全面智 能>>--2024-09-01 <<双宋齐发，进入批量打造销冠爆款 车型的比亚迪时刻>>--2024-07-29 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报，实现营业总收入 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/ 维持 君实生物(688180) 目标价: 48.10 昨收盘:30.45 拓益收入同比增长 46%，关注 DKK1 胃肠道肿瘤早期数据 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 9.86/7.65 总市值/流通(亿元) 300.14/232.81 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 38.36/23.08 相关研究报告 观点： 拓益销售收入保持高增速，公司运营效率显著提升，在手现金 30 亿 元。2025 年第一季度公司实现收入 5 亿元（同比+31.46%），其中，核心 产品特瑞普利单抗于国内市场实现销售收入 4.47 亿元（同比+45.72%）。 同时，公司积极落实"提质增效重回报"行动方案，提升销售效率，并将资 源聚焦于更具潜力的研发项目，与上年同期相比亏损减少。2025Q1 销售 费用 2.26 亿元（同比+17.79%），占总收入比重为 45%，较 2024Q1 下降 了 5pcts。研发费用 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 伯特利(603596) 目标价: 昨收盘:59.40 智驾平权时代：做强 X 向，做大 Y+Z 向 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (10%) 10% 30% 50% 70% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 6.07/6.06 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 360.27/360.14 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 67.4/31.75 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<打造一体式底盘域控系统：做强 X 向，做大 Y+Z 向>>--2024-09-03 <<伯特利 2023 年报点评：智能电控 龙头，产能扩张驱动高速成长>>-- 2024-03-31 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 事件：公司发布 2024 年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年营业收入 99.37 亿元， 同比+32.95%；归母 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 亿帆医药(002019) 目标价: 15 昨收盘:11.69 Q1 业绩基本符合市场预期，创新药产品收入实现高速增长 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.16/8.41 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 142.2/98.37 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 14.4/9.94 | | (元) | | 电话： E-MAIL：zhouyua@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523060002 事件： 4 月 29 日晚，公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年第一季度公司实 现营业收入 13.27 亿元，同比增长 0.05%，归母净利润为 1.53 亿元，同 比增长 4.83%，扣非后归母净利润为 0.95 亿元，同比下滑 13.55%。 点评： Q1 髙基数下，收入和利润端均实现同比正增长。2025 年第一季度公 司实现营 ...

福元医药(601089) 目标价: 19 昨收盘:15.35 Q1 收入端实现正增长，销售费用率持续优化 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/4/30 24/7/11 24/9/21 24/12/2 25/2/12 25/4/25 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 4.8/2.05 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 73.68/31.52 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 18.6/13.11 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<【太平洋证券】福元医药（601089） 公司点评：业绩略低于市场预期，研 发投入持续加码（2025.3.31）>>-- 2025-04-01 <>--2024-10-25 <>--2024-08-18 2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司点评 买入/维持 Q1 收入端实现正增长，利润端略有下滑。2025 年第一季度公司实现 营业收入 8.30 亿元，同比增长 3.46%，利润端归母净利润为 1.31 亿元， 同比下滑 1.47%，扣非后归母净利润为 1.22 亿元，同比下滑 1.16%。单季 度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.419 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 28 million yuan, down 72.91% year-on-year [4][9] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 461 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, but a net loss of 21 million yuan [4][5] - The automotive optical business has entered mass production, contributing to revenue growth [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 699 million yuan, up 24.21% year-on-year, with a reduced net loss of 15 million yuan compared to a loss of 25 million yuan in Q4 2023 [5][6] - The core components and complete machine business generated revenue of 2.240 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.48% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the automotive optical business [5][6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 22.15% and 25.21% respectively, both under pressure compared to previous periods [6][9] Business Segment Performance - The automotive optical business revenue reached 638 million yuan in 2024, while the cinema and professional display businesses generated nearly 570 million yuan and 392 million yuan respectively [5][6] - The overseas revenue for the professional display business was approximately 140 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 60.47% [5][6] Regional Performance - In 2024, domestic and overseas revenues were 2.141 billion yuan and 277 million yuan respectively, with domestic revenue growing by 14.93% and overseas revenue declining by 20.81% [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the film industry and the growth of the intelligent cockpit market, with projected net profits of 120 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 215 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 55.91, 37.11, and 31.09 [7][9]

- Model Name: Deviation Correction Model for Computer Index[4] - Model Construction Idea: The model assumes that the price trend of the target relative to the reference target has a repeated deviation-regression cycle, and the degree of deviation has a limit. By statistically analyzing the existing data, a reasonable threshold can be found. When the price is below this value, it indicates that the current price deviation is close to the limit, and the space for further decline is limited, so it is suitable to buy and hold until the price returns[6] - Specific Construction Process: 1. Calculate the closing price of the SW First-level Computer Index relative to the CSI 300 Index within the calculation period, denoted as cl[5] 2. Calculate the drawdown sequence W within the period[5] 3. Calculate the maximum value during each single drawdown period in W[6] 4. Arrange the maximum drawdown values in descending order to get sequence S, and sum S to get T[6] 5. Perform cumulative addition on S, stop when the cumulative sum reaches or exceeds 80% of T, and remove the values in S that did not participate in the cumulative addition, resulting in sequence S1[6] 6. Use an iterative method to further screen the elements in S1 by repeating the above two steps until the iterative result no longer changes, resulting in the effective drawdown set C[6] 7. Take 80% of the maximum value in C as the threshold. When W is greater than this threshold, the signal is 1 (buy); when W is 0, the signal is also zero (close position); in other cases, the signal is set to the previous value[6] - Model Evaluation: The model is not applicable in the tracking period as it shows significant volatility and long-term drawdown, with the final drawdown exceeding the previous ones, indicating that the current price trend is outside the statistical sample[7] Model Backtest Results - Total Strategy Return: 78.50%[6] - Buy and Hold Return: 152.35%[6] - Total Excess Return: -73.86%[6] - Maximum Drawdown: 54.68%[6] - Longest Drawdown Duration: 2261 trading days[6]

- The report introduces an industry crowding monitoring model to track daily crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices. The model identifies high crowding levels in industries such as beauty care, basic chemicals, and utilities, while industries like media and electrical equipment exhibit lower crowding levels[3] - A Z-score model is constructed to monitor ETF product signals. This model calculates rolling measurements to identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETFs while also warning of potential risks of price corrections[4] - The Z-score model is applied to ETF products, providing signals for potential arbitrage opportunities and highlighting risks associated with price adjustments[4] - The report provides detailed data on ETF fund flows, categorizing them into broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. It highlights the top three funds with the highest inflows and outflows for each category[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model tracks the movement of main funds across industries over the past three trading days, showing significant inflows into industries like automobiles and utilities, while outflows are observed in industries such as electronics and retail[3][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the model assumes a cyclical pattern of price deviation and regression relative to a reference index, with a defined limit on the degree of deviation, allowing for strategic buying when prices approach this limit [4][5]. - The model's design principle involves statistical analysis of historical data to identify reasonable thresholds for price deviations, which can signal buying opportunities when prices fall below these thresholds [4][5]. - The model tracks the performance of the Shenwan Level 1 Defense Industry Index relative to the CSI 300 Index over a defined period from January 4, 2010, to March 18, 2025 [4][5]. Group 2 - The total return of the interval strategy is reported at 159.57%, significantly outperforming the buy-and-hold return of 42.53%, resulting in an excess return of 117.05% [4]. - The maximum drawdown recorded is 50.87%, with the longest drawdown period lasting 2108 trading days, indicating substantial volatility in the strategy's performance [4]. - The model's effectiveness is questioned due to the observed price movements falling outside the historical sample range, suggesting that the strategy may not provide reliable guidance for future investments in the defense industry index [5].

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].