September 29, 2024 09:45 PM GMT Addressing Your Top Questions on China Stimulus The policy pivot is significant, but we haven't reached the decisive trillion-dollar reflation moment yet. We expect modest fiscal easing and mild QoQ growth improvement in 4Q24-1Q25, and see potential for a further 10% tactical equity rally. A dip in our Social Dynamics Indicator could trigger bigger stimulus. A significant policy pivot: Since our trip to Beijing in early September, we have been of the view that policymakers ha ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the investment outlook for the Chinese market, suggesting that policy changes may restore foreign investor confidence [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in China's policy framework, focusing on balancing safety and development, with social stability as a priority [2][4][53]. - It highlights the expectation of approximately 2 trillion RMB in fiscal policy measures aimed at addressing debt risks and stimulating local government spending [6][7][10]. - The report suggests that while initial fiscal measures may seem modest, they reflect a significant policy shift and coordination among various government departments [8][10][12]. - The potential for further policy measures, particularly in the real estate sector, is noted as crucial for economic recovery and investor confidence [12][14][46]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The report anticipates the introduction of around 2 trillion RMB in fiscal policies, with half allocated to debt resolution and the other half to support local government spending and infrastructure [6][7][10]. - It argues that the scale of initial fiscal measures may not meet high expectations but represents a critical shift in policy direction [8][10][12]. Market Sentiment - The report discusses the mixed sentiment among international and domestic investors, with some expressing disappointment over the scale of fiscal measures while others recognize the importance of the policy shift [8][10][14]. - It notes that the market's recovery is contingent on the successful implementation of these policies and the stabilization of the real estate market [12][14][46]. Economic Outlook - The report projects a gradual improvement in GDP growth, estimating a rise from a 3% annualized rate in Q3 to 4.7% in Q4, with further growth expected in early 2024 [18][19]. - It emphasizes the need for stronger policy measures to combat deflation and stimulate consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [20][22][51]. Real Estate Sector - The report highlights recent positive signals in the real estate market, including increased sales and visits to property showrooms, suggesting a potential recovery [48][49]. - It stresses the importance of sustained policy support and the need for a more predictable regulatory environment to rebuild confidence in the real estate market [50][51].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 摩根士丹利：反弹能否成为反转！货币有了，财政还会远吗？ 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到一周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。今天很多在线的朋友都 比较忙，因为市场也比较活跃，我们也不想过度的耽误大家的时间，主要就针对最核心的几个 问题，让从我这边若病行之强，我们的团队的蔡志鹏博士和我们的首席策略师罗拉和我们的金 融行业的首席瑞特，主要是从政策面来分析下一步还有什么招，能不能达到市场的预期，什么 时候真正能一举打破通缩？ 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 这次的市场的反弹能否持久成为长期的反转？这是今天的主要话题。当然我们的消费行业的首 席练练也会具体的讲到，现在大家预期打得比较高，对这些消费股大幅反弹之后，实际上基本 面由这些政策来传导到需要什么时候黄金周能不能有一些新意，像往常一样，我还是先给大家 抛砖引玉，再讲下一步的货币已经有了，财政还会不会远？ 之前我想过去一周大概经历了我 们职业生涯以来最忙的一周，那比可能 2022 年 11 月中国疫情放开之后，全球投资者对中国的 关注程度 ...

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Murat Tasci (1-212) 622-0288 murat.tasci@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Abiel Reinhart (1-212) 270 4058 abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA United States • At the September FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed will do what it "should" do and cut 50bp... • … warranted by a shift in the balance of risks and a desire to pr ...

J P M O R G A N North America Fixed Income Strategy 13 September 2024 Phoebe White AC (1-212) 834-3092 phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230 liam.wash@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • Economics: Core CPI surprised to the upside, rising 0.28% in August supported by a jump in OER. We continue to expect the Fed will lower the policy rate by 50bp at next week's FOMC meeting. We expect the median dots will show 100bp of easing by YE24 and another 150bp of ea ...

Global Data Watch • US labor market and inflation performance looks different ... • … bolstering case for relatively fast Fed ease through year-end • Don't get carried away with momentum as we look toward 2025 • Next week: Modest US jobs (150k); stable global PMI; BoC eases A wide divide Relative to its potential path, the US is the only large economy to have generated a complete post-pandemic recovery. As the performance gap with other advanced economies continues to widen—most notably in wealth generation ...

J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 27 August 2024 US Equity Financing and AIR TRF Monitor Aug 27, 2024 • Short-dated implied financing rates increased on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 w/w, leading to a flattening of the funding term structure. • Pricing on the S&P 500 AIR TRFs increased 1 bp on the Sep'24 contract, 4 bps on the Dec'24 contract, 3 bps on the Mar'25 contract, and were little changed across the rest of the curve w/w. • Volumes on S&P 500 AIR TRFs totaled ~$8 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, contingent on upcoming employment data [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. economy is showing signs of robust consumer spending, with real consumer spending increasing by 0.4% in July and an upward revision of 2Q GDP growth to 3.0% from 2.8% [3][4]. - Business spending remains cautious, with nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods declining for three consecutive months, indicating a potential slowdown in business investment [4][5]. - The core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose only 0.16% month-over-month in July, suggesting moderating inflation risks [2][9]. - The personal saving rate has dropped to 2.9%, nearing post-COVID lows, raising concerns about future consumer spending sustainability [9][11]. - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with payroll gains expected to be modest at 150,000 for August, maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.3% [6][41]. Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The report revises the 3Q GDP growth estimate to 1.5%, up from 1.3%, reflecting stronger consumer spending forecasts [3]. - Consumer confidence has improved slightly, with the Conference Board index rising to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July [11][50]. Business Investment and Employment - Equipment spending forecast for 3Q has been raised to 5.0% from 1.0%, driven by strong aircraft shipments and capital goods imports [5]. - Business sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by downbeat regional Fed surveys, suggesting potential challenges ahead for business investment [4][6]. Housing Market - Housing data remains weak, with pending home sales declining 5.5% month-over-month in July, reaching an all-time low [11][60]. - The report anticipates a significant drop in real residential investment for 3Q, revised down to -10% from -5% [12]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market differential from the consumer confidence survey has decreased, indicating a growing perception of job scarcity [45]. - Job openings in the JOLTS report are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase anticipated for August [26][28]. Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The core PCE inflation rate remains above the Fed's target at 2.6% year-over-year, but recent trends suggest a moderation in inflationary pressures [2][61]. - The report highlights a disconnect between consumption and income growth, with real disposable income growth slowing [9][61]. Trade and International Factors - The nominal goods and services trade balance widened to -$80.1 billion in July, reflecting a significant increase in the goods deficit [23]. - The report notes that service imports may receive a boost from payments related to the Paris Olympics, impacting the trade balance [23].

Global Quantative & Derivatives Strategy August 27, 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan China Equity Flow Monitor Xipu HanAC +852 2800 1029 xipu.han@jpmorgan.com Haoshun Liu +852 2800 7736 haoshun.liu@jpmorgan.com Data as of August 23, 2024 T ...

Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039 haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Ji Yan (852) 2800-7673 ji.yan@jpmorgan.com Greater China • China: slowing exports amid concerns on softening global manufacturing trend • CPI inflation ticked up to 0.5%oya on food prices; core CPI remained soft; look for further rate cuts • Taiwan: July CPI inflation ticked up, partly reflecting typhoon impact; e ...