Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dyno Nobel Limited is Equal-weight with a price target of A$2.90, indicating a modest upside of 13% from the current price of A$2.57 [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that divestments are progressing towards a full fertilizer separation, although the proceeds from these sales appear light [1][4]. - The underlying performance in explosives is solid, but overshadowed by resegments and turnarounds [1]. - The market is expected to wait for a complete fertilizer separation before making significant moves [1]. Financial Performance - The sale of the Fertiliser Distribution business to Ridley Corporation is expected to yield gross proceeds of A$375 million, which is viewed as underwhelming at 7x EBIT based on the average over the past five years [4]. - The Perdaman offtake agreement is projected to generate gross proceeds of A$145 million, which is considered light given expectations of A$45 million per annum of EBIT [4]. - The company reported a 1H25 EBIT of A$174 million, which is a 13% increase compared to Morgan Stanley estimates and an 8% increase versus the previous year [9]. Market Guidance - The guidance for FY25 remains unchanged, with an expected exit run rate of approximately 40-50% of a ~A$300 million EBIT uplift program [9]. - The production forecast for Phosphate Hill in FY25 is maintained at 740-800kt, with anticipated gas costs of A$40-80 million due to shortfalls [9]. - Contracted fertilizer sales volumes have been deferred into 2H25 due to adverse weather conditions [9].

May 12, 2025 01:56 AM GMT Eli Lilly & Co. | North America Tidbits from Zepbound vs. Wegovy SURMOUNT-5 obesity publication Investigators published SURMOUNT-5 Ph3 obesity data from a head-to-head trial of LLY's Zepbound (Tirzepatide MTD 10/15mg) vs. Novo's Wegovy (Semaglutide MTD 1.7/2.4mg) in the New England Journal of Medicine (LINK). Recall top-line data from the trial were reported in Dec 2024, see our prior note HERE. In the Zepbound group, 89.3% of the participants received at least one 15mg dose, and i ...

May 12, 2025 05:22 AM GMT Britannia Industries Ltd | Asia Pacific 4QF25: Off the Call Outlook: Management expects gradual sequential recovery in growth, and its aspiration is to deliver double-digit revenue growth in F26. Price hikes taken in 4Q to have full effect in 1Q, while currently management expects no further price changes. Volume growth +3.5% in 4Q. Margins are expected to remain at current levels, with a target of 2.5%+ costs savings in F26. Among RM, salience for Wheat and Oil is at 30% each, whi ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH February 14, 2025 03:20 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific $${}^{46},\{1\}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}$$ DeepSeek、智驾、人形机器人等"小龙"使市场再度认识中 国供应链优势和创新力。然而,若地缘政治割裂和消费支持 不足的大环境不变,科创难以只身肩负引领经济走出通缩的 重任。 2025年为乙巳蛇年。在中国，蛇也被称为小龙。恰逢蛇年到来之际，杭州"六小 龙"（包括DeepSeek和宇树科技在内的初创企业）声名鹊起，重新点燃了投资者 对于中国供应链竞争力和科技创新的信心。这些优势在过去一段时间被忽视， ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH February 13, 2025 01:42 AM GMT 中国股票策略 | Asia Pacific Al势头推动市场反弹 步怎么走? 最近中国市场的反弹主要是由Al势头推动的，表明科技股表现 与其他股票之间出现较大分化。鉴于全球投资者仓位较轻, 我们预计这一势头将在短期内持续,但对贸易和科技相关风 险持谨慎态度。我们筛选了15只直接受益的股票标的。 近期恒生指数表现强劲，主要是由Al/科技相关个股在DeepSeek的支持下推 动 …… : · · 了在Al领域的重大进步,这些模型的性能可与谷歌、Open Al和Meta等领先公司的 模型相媲美,但成本却低得多。我们认为这是近期中国股市反弹的最大推动因 素。MSCI 中国指数和恒生指数均已于 1 月 13 日 (DeepSeek-R1 发布后的第一个交 易日）触底,此后一直在反弹。1月13日至2月7日期间，恒生指数上涨了12%，其 中恒生科技指数上涨了22%。MSCI 中国指数上涨 13%，其中 MSCI 中国IT 板块上 涨 24%。A 股市场略微落后，上证综指和沪深 1000 IT 板块分别上涨 5% ...

Macro Policy and Economic Forecast - The official deficit rate is expected to reach 4% or higher, with a fiscal stimulus increment of around 2 trillion RMB[1] - Policy focus shifts towards consumer goods renewal, with a predicted cumulative policy rate cut of 40 basis points by mid-next year[1] - Unconventional counter-cyclical measures include central enterprises issuing special investment bonds and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, injecting 2 trillion RMB in liquidity[5] Economic Priorities and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized over technology and industrial chain investments, signaling a shift towards an internal demand-driven framework[3] - Structural reforms are necessary to transition from an investment and real estate-centric economy to a more balanced structure, a process expected to be long-term[5] - Addressing real estate bad debts requires a combination of policy intervention and market-based mechanisms to clear the market and ensure fiscal sustainability[5] Financial and Insurance Sector Outlook - Loose monetary policy has led to increased deposit savings rates, limited consumption stimulation, and reduced resource allocation efficiency[8] - The insurance sector shows strong investment value, with significant growth in new business value and improved performance due to channel optimization and product structure enhancements[13] - Challenges for the insurance industry in 2025 include managing new business value growth and addressing market concerns over interest rates and opening red scenarios[14]

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 16, 2024 10:37 PM GMT September 16 Soft China activity data; BoC's Macklem does not "want to see more slack" in the Canadian economy; USTs rally amid uncertainty over size of Fed cut; ECB's Lane favors gradual easing; GBP and AUD outperform; RRP below $250bn; DXY at 100.67 (-0.4%); US 10y at 3.18% (-3.4bp). • USD/CNH weakens 0.1% despite soft August China activity data with larger-than-expected declines in industrial production, retail sales, and fixed ass ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" investment rating to the industry [1]. Core Insights - The headline Total Social Financing (TSF) growth moderated to approximately 8% year-on-year (YoY) in August, indicating a more rational loan extension which is expected to stabilize loan yields [1][2]. - Government bond issuance is anticipated to be a primary support for investment and consumption in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The report forecasts TSF growth to remain around 8% for 2024, with a potential decline below this level, which is viewed positively for the long-term sustainability of the financial system [1][2]. - Credit growth is expected to slow to approximately 7% in 2025, which will help close the gap between credit supply and demand, thereby supporting loan yields through more market-oriented pricing by banks [1]. Summary by Sections TSF Growth and Loan Dynamics - TSF growth moderated to 8.1% YoY in August, with RMB loan growth also at 8.1% YoY [2][3]. - The moderation in loan growth is attributed to efforts to reduce self-circulating loans and a rationalization of loan growth as banks focus on risk containment [1][3]. - Long-term corporate loans remain weak, influenced by policies on capacity control and fair competition rules [1]. Government Bonds and Investment Support - Government bond issuance increased by 15.8% YoY, providing significant support for investment and consumption [2][3]. - The report highlights that government bonds will likely be utilized to bolster investment and consumption in the latter half of 2024 [1]. Household and Corporate Deposits - Household deposit growth remained stable at 10.9% YoY in August, while corporate deposits declined by 3.9% YoY [1][11]. - The stability in household deposits is seen as a positive indicator for fee income rebound in the second half of 2024 [1]. Loan Types and Trends - Short-term household loans saw a significant decline of 52% YoY, while long-term household loans are experiencing a slower decline [1][11]. - The report notes that mortgages are gradually stabilizing, attributed to lower early repayments and some recovery in demand due to lower mortgage rates [1]. Valuation Comparisons - The report includes valuation comparisons for various Chinese banks, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, with several banks rated as Overweight (OW) [12][13].

August 30, 2024 08:41 PM GMT cover, CCB bucked the trend, showing improvement in overdue and SML loans. M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

M Update Asia Quantitative Strategy | Asia Pacific August 26, 2024 12:09 PM GMT Positions of Active Long-only Managers in Asia/EM Our August 2024 positioning guide shows Semis remained the most crowded industry group, although active weights were trimmed to +3.0% with Financials and Brazil were most bought. India has now overtaken China as the largest market in active portfolios. Active GEM funds saw US$2.2bn in redemptions Key Takeaways US$2.2bn outflow from active GEM funds but US$254m inflow into GEM pas ...