wanhua(600309) 光大证券·2024-07-01 23:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The successful commissioning of the 200,000 tons/year POE project marks a significant milestone for the company, establishing it as the first domestic enterprise to achieve large-scale production of POE [2]. - The demand for POE is expected to grow steadily, with a projected global market size of $3.73 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 8.6% from 2023 to 2029 [2]. - The company has a comprehensive upstream and downstream layout in the POE industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantage [2]. Summary by Sections Project Development - The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project achieved full-process commissioning on June 29, 2024, producing qualified products on the same day [2]. - The company plans to expand its POE capacity to 600,000 tons/year, with an additional 400,000 tons/year project under construction expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. Market Position - The company has broken the overseas monopoly in large-scale POE production, positioning itself to establish deep ties with high-quality downstream customers [2]. - The domestic market for photovoltaic-grade POE film is rapidly increasing, with approximately 1.6 million tons of POE capacity under construction or planned in China [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit is projected to be 20.67 billion, 24.84 billion, and 27.26 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 175.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 249.03 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.44% from 2023 to 2024 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast decreasing from 16 in 2022 to 9 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [3]. - The company’s ROE is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 19.83% in 2024 and 19.22% in 2026 [3].