五洲特纸：盈利小幅回落，产能快速释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.25-2.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a midpoint of 2.30 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 0.12 billion yuan in the first half of 2023 [9]. - For Q2 2024, the estimated net profit is projected to be between 0.91-1.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 415.8% to 472.4% [9]. - The company is anticipated to maintain stable production and sales, with slight cost increases and price adjustments in specialty paper and white card products [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 6.519 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 8.612 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 32.1% [12]. - The net profit for 2023 was 273 million yuan, with an expected increase to 560 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 105.2% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.68 yuan, projected to rise to 1.39 yuan in 2024 [12]. Production Capacity and Growth Path - The company has successfully launched 22,000 tons of digital transfer paper and 18,000 tons of drawing paper, with a total production capacity reaching approximately 1.4 million tons by April 2024 [19]. - Additional production lines for industrial packaging paper and tube paper are set to commence operations in 2024, with total capacity expected to double by the end of 2025 [19]. - The integration of pulp and paper production is progressing, which is expected to mitigate cyclical impacts on the business [19].