ZHUHAI COSMX(688772) 国泰君安·2024-07-16 22:31Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4] - Target price revised to 21.12 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 17.76 CNY [3] Core Views - The company secured a new 12V automotive low-voltage lithium battery project from a leading German automaker, which is expected to optimize its power business structure [4] - The consumer battery business is anticipated to benefit from AI-driven technological advancements in consumer electronics, potentially driving a new replacement cycle for devices [4] - The company's power and energy storage subsidiary, Zhejiang Guanyu, reported a revenue of 660 million CNY in 2023 but incurred a net loss of 628 million CNY Plans to introduce strategic investors through a capital increase could enhance its competitiveness and reduce the drag on the parent company's performance [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 12,689 million CNY, a 10 9% increase YoY, with further growth expected in 2025E and 2026E to 14,546 million CNY and 15,887 million CNY, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching 559 million CNY in 2024E, 1,061 million CNY in 2025E, and 1,281 million CNY in 2026E [7] - EPS for 2024E is estimated at 0 50 CNY, with upward revisions to 0 94 CNY in 2025E and 1 14 CNY in 2026E [4] Business Highlights - The company has secured multiple low-voltage lithium battery projects from renowned automakers, including SAIC, IM Motors, Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis, and GM, which are expected to drive growth in its power business [4] - As a global leader in PC battery cells and a key supplier to Apple, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven replacement cycle in consumer electronics [4] - The company is exploring new technologies such as stacking, silicon-based materials, and steel shells to meet higher energy density requirements for AI-powered devices, potentially increasing battery value [4] Market and Valuation - The company's current price is 16 77 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 11 64-23 25 CNY [5] - The market capitalization stands at 18,905 million CNY, with a P/B ratio of 2 7 and a net debt ratio of 28 23% [5] - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 14 83 in 2022A to 4 91 in 2026E, indicating improving valuation metrics [8] Industry Comparison - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 33 79, lower than peers like BYD (21 92), CATL (17 43), and Eve Energy (16 16), suggesting relative undervaluation [9] - The average P/B ratio for comparable companies is 3 19, slightly higher than the company's current P/B of 2 7 [9]