天目湖：一站式旅游模式的实践者，持续改进延展创新

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong development and operational capabilities in the one-stop tourism model, with potential for valuation upside [62] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in China's one-stop tourism model, with comprehensive tourism services covering scenic spots, hot springs, theme parks, hotels, and travel agencies [89] - The tourism industry is steadily growing, with artificial scenic spots requiring excellent operation and expansion capabilities [7] - The company has precise positioning in one-stop tourism, excellent operational capabilities, and continuous innovation in expansion [41] - The company's revenue and net profit in 2023 have exceeded 2019 levels, with strong recovery and growth potential [110] Business Performance - Hotel business revenue CAGR from 2019-2023 was 21.3%, with expected growth rates of 20%/15%/10% for 2024-2026 [1] - Scenic spot and hotel businesses are the main revenue contributors, accounting for 51.6% and 32.9% of total revenue in 2023, respectively [90] - The company achieved revenue of 630 million yuan in 2023, a 70.9% YoY increase, and net profit of 147 million yuan, a 623.9% YoY increase [89] - Expected revenue for 2024-2026 is 720/800/870 million yuan, with net profit of 170/200/250 million yuan [56] Industry Analysis - China's tourism consumption is transitioning from sightseeing to leisure-oriented, with A-level scenic spots' revenue share in domestic tourism declining from 2012-2022 [30] - Domestic tourism revenue grew from 2.3 trillion yuan in 2012 to 5.7 trillion yuan in 2019, with a CAGR of 14.1% [32] - In 2023, domestic tourism revenue reached 4.9 trillion yuan, a 140.3% YoY increase, recovering to 85.8% of 2019 levels [32] - The replication and expansion capabilities of scenic spots are scarce, especially for artificial scenic spots, which rely on product development and operational capabilities [35] Company Strengths - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including scenic spots, hot springs, and theme parks, with complementary peak seasons ensuring year-round business [125] - Strong development and operational capabilities, with a stable core management team and efficient functional departments [46] - Continuous innovation and expansion, with new projects like Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Yushui Hot Spring Phase III under development [25] - Collaboration with state-owned assets enhances resource, capital, and brand advantages, supporting the company's expansion and development [23] Risks - Severe underperformance in passenger flow could impact revenue and profits [2] - Natural disasters and adverse weather conditions could reduce tourist numbers and revenue [2] - Delays in project expansion and extension could affect the company's growth [64] Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 13.8%/11.1%/8.6%, with net profit growth rates of 13.8%/20.8%/21.2% [56] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 16.0x/13.3x/11.0x, indicating potential valuation upside [62] - Sales expense ratio is expected to decrease to 7.5%/7.2%/7.0%, and management expense ratio to 13.5%/13.2%/13.0% for 2024-2026 [56]