GreatStar(002444) 华创证券·2024-07-31 23:31Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 33 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18.4 times for 2024 [1][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company, as a leading player in the hand tools sector, is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming recovery in the tools industry driven by the real estate market in the U.S. and inventory replenishment by retailers [2][8]. - The company has demonstrated strong capabilities in category expansion and global layout, effectively breaking through channel barriers in the industry [2][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has transitioned from an ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) model to an OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) model since 2010, acquiring nine regional tool brands and increasing its OBM revenue share to 48% by 2023 [2][14]. - The company has a clear and stable ownership structure, with the founders holding a combined 38.3% of shares, ensuring strong governance and management continuity [17][19]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 10,930 million CNY, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1,692 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [3][20]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 13,905 million CNY in 2024, 17,273 million CNY in 2025, and 20,871 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2,154 million CNY, 2,713 million CNY, and 3,286 million CNY [3][20]. Core Advantages - The company has effectively integrated its supply chain management and acquisition strategies to expand its product categories, including hand tools, laser measurement tools, storage cabinets, and power tools [24][25]. - The company has established strong relationships with major retailers in North America, breaking through channel exclusivity and enhancing its market presence [2][24]. Industry Outlook - The tools industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, supported by a recovery in the U.S. real estate market and the end of inventory destocking by retailers [2][8]. - The global market for power tools is larger and more concentrated than that for hand tools, providing significant growth opportunities for the company [2][8]. Investment Thesis - The company's strong cash flow and stable financial performance, combined with its strategic acquisitions and global expansion, position it well for future growth [9][24]. - The report predicts a net profit growth rate of 27.3% in 2024, 26.0% in 2025, and 21.1% in 2026, indicating robust earnings potential [3][20].