财通证券研报指出，巨星科技是中国手工具行业龙头、全球工具行业领先企业之一。美国降息周期+补 库周期共振驱动，工具行业需求上行。公司拥有23个生产制造基地，分布于中国、越南、柬埔寨、泰 国、美国、欧洲等地，形成了"全球采购、全球制造、全球分发"的能力。东南亚产能不断扩张，用以优 化对美供应链、抵御国际关税波动风险，并提升整体成本竞争力。自有品牌战略成效显著， WORKPRO、DURATECH、EverBrite 等品牌在电商和线下市场表现突出，有效提升国际竞争力和毛利 率。维持"增持"评级。 ...

公司深度研究 | 巨星科技 国际巨星，再添动力 巨星科技（002444.SZ）首次覆盖报告 工具行业长坡厚雪，千亿美金赛道。五金工具属于必选消费品，全球市场规模 约千亿美金。下游需求规模和房屋改造投资密切相关，整体市场规模增速较为稳 定，工具的产品属性决定了接近 80%的需求集中在欧美，而供给主要集中在亚 洲。从产业链来看，终端消费需求分散，渠道商集中度相对最高，CR4 超过 70%。 目前，国内头部工具企业基本都经历了从 OEM->ODM->OBM 的转型，中美贸 易摩擦背景下，供应格局正在重塑，东南亚有望承接中国外迁的产能。 公司发展置身周期，穿越周期。公司主营手工具、电动工具和工业工具，是典 型的出口公司，2024 收入构成中，美洲占比达到 63.44%。公司目前发展显著 跑赢行业，已经成长为亚洲手工具龙头企业，市占率全球第二。我们总结了其核 心竞争优势在于渠道拓展能力、品牌收购和产品创新能力和全球化的产能布局。 周期复苏在即，公司有望迎来降息周期、库存周期和产品周期的三重共振。美 联储于 2025 年 9 月重启降息周期，带动工具终端消费需求上行。从中短期的库 存周期来看，两大渠道商劳氏和家得宝的库存 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global tools industry, covering hand tools, power tools, and industrial tools. It has a strong market presence in China and is one of the leading suppliers globally [7][11] - The demand for tools is expected to rise due to the US interest rate cut cycle and inventory replenishment, with channel partners experiencing a turning point in revenue and inventory growth by the end of 2023 [7][8] - The company's global supply chain and deepening private brand strategy significantly enhance its profitability [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a large enterprise with a global layout and diverse product categories, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of hand tools, power tools, industrial tools, and laser measuring instruments [11] - The actual controller of the company has shown confidence in its future development by continuously increasing his shareholding [11][12] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 14,898 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [6][50] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2,610 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 17.5% [50] - The company has shown resilience in profitability, with a net profit growth of 36.2% in 2024 [17][21] Business Structure - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 70.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.87% [23] - The overseas revenue accounts for over 90% of total revenue, primarily from North America and Europe [24] Macro Environment - The DIY projects are driving the demand for hardware tools, with the global hardware tools market expected to grow significantly [26] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are anticipated to stimulate housing demand, further boosting the demand for tools [34] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a distributed global production capacity with 23 manufacturing bases worldwide, enhancing its supply chain management [42] - The deepening of its private brand strategy has led to a significant increase in brand recognition and market penetration [44][45] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21,254 million yuan by 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11.5 [49][50] - The hand tools segment is projected to see a revenue decline in the short term but is expected to recover in the medium to long term due to the housing market's recovery [48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the global tools industry, covering hand tools, power tools, and industrial tools. It has a strong market presence in China and is one of the leading global suppliers [7][11] - The demand for tools is expected to rise due to the US interest rate cut cycle and inventory replenishment, with channel partners experiencing a turning point in revenue and inventory growth by the end of 2023 [7][8] - The company's global supply chain and deepening private brand strategy significantly enhance its profitability [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a large enterprise with a global layout and diverse product categories, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of hand tools, power tools, industrial tools, and laser measuring instruments [11] - The actual controller of the company has shown confidence in its future development by continuously increasing his shareholding [11][12] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 14,898 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [6][50] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2,610 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 17.5% [50] - The company has shown resilience in profitability, with a net profit growth of 36.2% in 2024 [17][21] Business Structure - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 70.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.87% [23] - The overseas revenue accounts for over 90% of total revenue, primarily from North America and Europe [24][23] Macro Environment - The DIY projects are driving the demand for hardware tools, with the global hardware tools market expected to grow significantly [26] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are anticipated to stimulate housing demand, further boosting the demand for tools [34] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a distributed global production capacity with 23 manufacturing bases worldwide, enhancing its supply chain management [42] - The deepening of its private brand strategy has led to a significant increase in brand recognition and market penetration [44][45] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21,254 million yuan by 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11.5 [49][50] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 2.18 yuan in 2025 to 3.12 yuan in 2027 [6][50]

[Table_Info1] 巨星科技(002444) 机械设备 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2026-02-09 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司深度报告 产品+渠道+品牌构建核心竞争力，地产+补库周期有望共振 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 中国工具出海龙头企业，品牌和产品矩阵不断完善，收入利润持续增长。 公司通过创立自有品牌（WORKPRO、DuraTech 等）和收购全球工具细 分行业龙头品牌（PREXISO、LISTA、Shop-Vac 等）完善品牌矩阵，同 时切入激光测量仪器、储物箱柜、电动工具等细分行业，形成手工具、 电动工具和工业工具三类主要产品。2011-2024 年，公司营业收入 CAGR 为 15.95%，归母净利润 CAGR 为 17.76%。 工具行业长坡厚雪，美国地产+补库周期有望推动工具产品需求增长。欧 美受 DIY 文化影响成为全球主要工具市场，2025H1 公司欧美地区收入 占比超 90%，其中美洲收入占比为 65%。预计 2024-2026 年全球工具产 品市场规模由 622 亿美元增长至 673 亿美元，CAGR 为 4.02%，同期电 ...

| 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | --- | 股 票 研 究 出口链月度跟踪：汇率与运价边际回落，海外 需求结构分化 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI 环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： 同比下降 63.74%；12 月出口量为 1.21 万辆，1-12 月累计出口量为 10.54 万辆，同比下降 62.24%。5）摩托车行业：2025 年 12 月，中 国摩托车出口额环比下降 2.73%，同比上升 15.83%； ...

| 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | --- | 股 票 研 究 出口链月度跟踪：汇率与运价边际回落，海外 需求结构分化 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI 环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： 同比下降 63.74%；12 月出口量为 1.21 万辆，1-12 月累计出口量为 10.54 万辆，同比下降 62.24%。5）摩托车行业：2025 年 12 月，中 国摩托车出口额环比下降 2.73%，同比上升 15.83%； ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Core Viewpoint - The company, 巨星科技, is experiencing fluctuations in stock price and is addressing investor concerns regarding currency exchange rates and potential collaborations with other technology firms [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the stock price of 巨星科技 closed at 37.23 yuan, down by 0.11%, with a turnover rate of 1.02%, a trading volume of 117,000 shares, and a transaction amount of 435 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, there was a net inflow of 28.63 million yuan from major funds, indicating increased short-term interest in the stock [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Relations - The company is considering suggestions from investors, such as collaborating with 宇树科技 to integrate electric tools into robotic arms [2]. - In response to concerns about the impact of currency fluctuations, the company stated that its global supply chain and production capacity have reduced the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on its operations [3]. - The company confirmed that it does not hold any equity in 宇树科技, despite inquiries from investors regarding potential investments [4].

Core Insights - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw significant adjustments in the portfolio of renowned fund manager Fu Pengbo, with notable changes in top holdings and investment strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Maiwei Co. replaced China Mobile in Fu Pengbo's top ten holdings, indicating a shift in focus towards high-performing sectors [1]. - Fu Pengbo increased holdings in Cambricon Technologies while reducing positions in several companies including Xinyi Semiconductor, Shenghong Technology, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Dongshan Precision, Luxshare Precision, Alibaba-W, and Juxing Technology [1][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference and political bureau meeting emphasized maintaining low social financing costs and leaving room for fiscal policy to address future risks, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for domestic demand policies [1][4]. - The macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter indicated a mixed performance in consumption and investment, with automotive consumption boosted by trade-in subsidies, while real estate remained weak [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Future Outlook - The concentration of the top ten holdings in the fund increased to 70.38%, up from 66.04% in the previous quarter, indicating a strategic focus on fewer, high-potential stocks [5]. - Preparations for the 2026 portfolio include reducing exposure to companies with weak fundamentals and increasing investments in data center cooling, storage, and computing power-related firms, based on industry trends and individual stock research [5]. - The market is expected to see heightened activity in early 2026, with a focus on sectors like AI, non-ferrous metals, and lithium battery materials anticipated to show significant growth [6].