Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the equipment manufacturing industry, particularly highlighting investment opportunities in AI-driven sectors and computing infrastructure [2]. Core Insights - The equipment manufacturing industry in China is transitioning into a technology-driven phase, with AI and computing infrastructure being key areas for investment. The report emphasizes the growth potential of AI endpoint products and computing infrastructure investments [2]. - The report identifies three main drivers for the recovery of machinery equipment exports by 2026: the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, strong infrastructure demand along the Belt and Road Initiative, and the rising demand for AI computing equipment [3]. Summary by Sections AI-Driven Growth - Investment opportunities are seen in AI endpoints such as humanoid robots, smart manufacturing, and various consumer AI products, which are expected to experience rapid growth. This will lead to increased demand for chips used in training, inference, and storage, initiating a new investment cycle in semiconductor equipment [2]. - The report also highlights the importance of computing infrastructure investments to support AI endpoints, recommending investments in cooling systems and energy solutions due to power shortages [2]. Export Recovery Drivers - The report outlines three key drivers for the expected recovery in machinery equipment exports by 2026: 1. Recovery in overseas demand due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will boost global industrial product demand [3]. 2. Strong infrastructure demand in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in the Middle East, where domestic oil service equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from high growth [3]. 3. Increased demand for equipment driven by AI computing needs, leading to growth in gas turbines and diesel generator sets, as well as PCB materials and testing equipment [3]. Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts for key recommended companies, all rated as "Buy," indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong resilience of leading white goods companies, highlighting their high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Midea Group at 5.1%, Hisense Home Appliances at 4.9%, and Haier Smart Home at 4.6% [6][22] - The "Home Appliance +" strategy indicates opportunities in extending the appliance industry into robotics, with companies like Midea Group and Fuhua Co. making significant advancements [6][58] - The export market shows potential, particularly in the U.S. real estate sector, with expectations of demand recovery due to anticipated interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies [6][70] Section Summaries 2025 Home Appliance Review - The home appliance index has shown a modest increase of 7.7% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 9.7 percentage points [11][14] - The market style in 2025 has favored growth stocks, while the home appliance sector has leaned towards value, leading to a mismatch in market expectations [13][14] - The public fund allocation in the home appliance sector is at a historical low of 2.94%, indicating potential for future growth as external demand remains optimistic [18][19] Dividends - Leading white goods companies maintain high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Supor at 6.1%, and Midea Group at 5.1%, reflecting strong earnings resilience [24][29] - The report suggests that the dividend rates for companies like Midea and Haier may continue to increase, supported by robust profit growth [24][30] Domestic Sales - The national subsidy policy has positively impacted consumer confidence, with a clear trend towards structural upgrades in appliance consumption [34] - The sales growth of home appliances has been driven by the "trade-in" policy, although growth rates have shown a declining trend in the latter part of the year [34][39] - The air conditioning market has maintained stable pricing, with a continued trend towards mid-to-high-end products [39] "Home Appliance +" - Midea Group has made significant investments in robotics, with humanoid robots already in practical application within factories [58] - Fuhua Co. is expected to launch its grain storage robots in 2026, indicating a diversification into new growth areas [59] - Key component manufacturers like Huaxiang Co. and Hanyu Group are positioned to benefit from the robotics trend, focusing on core components such as reducers and harmonic drives [64][65] Exports - The U.S. real estate market is expected to recover, with potential interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies likely to boost demand for home appliances [71][84] - Retail inventory levels in the U.S. are high, which may affect sales performance in the short term, but long-term housing demand remains strong [76][83] - The report anticipates that if mortgage rates fall below 6%, there could be a significant recovery in demand within the real estate chain [84]

Summary of Great Star (002444 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Great Star - **Ticker**: 002444 CH - **Sector**: Household Durables - **Market Cap**: CNY 42,798 million (USD 6,073 million) [7][15] Key Points Industry Insights - **US Housing Market Recovery**: Predictions indicate a growth in existing home transactions in 2026 after three years of stagnation, suggesting macro tailwinds for Great Star's growth outlook, especially with a North America revenue mix of 65% in 1H25 [4][28]. - **Inventory Levels**: The inventory level of US tools and hardware stores is expected to peak in 1Q26, which may signal a potential inflection point in quarterly revenue decline for Great Star [3][21]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue estimates for 2025-27 have been revised down by 6-15% due to worse-than-expected consumption in 2H25 and a flat home improvement growth outlook [5][42]. - **Earnings Estimates**: EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been cut by 5.9% and 12.5%, respectively [5][42]. - **Current Valuation**: The stock trades at 14x 2026e PE, in line with its historical average since 2018, but is considered deserving of a premium due to its global manufacturing footprint and improved product portfolio [5][48]. Investment Rating - **Rating**: Maintain Buy - **Target Price**: Raised to RMB 43.00 from RMB 41.90, implying a 20% upside from current levels [6][47]. - **Price Performance**: Current share price is CNY 35.83, with a target price indicating a potential increase [7][15]. Management Insights - **Insider Buying**: Chairman Mr. Qiu Jianping purchased 400k shares in December 2025, signaling confidence in the company's future [3][26]. - **Order Backlog**: Management reported a solid order backlog and new order growth towards year-end, contrasting with previous low season trends [3][11]. Risks and Challenges - **Profitability Concerns**: The company faces risks related to labor and raw material costs, which could impact margins if not passed on to consumers [58]. - **Exposure to Overseas Markets**: With 96% of revenues from overseas, economic and regulatory risks could affect profitability, especially amid US-China trade tensions [58]. - **M&A Integration Risks**: Recent M&A activities may pose integration challenges, impacting future growth and operational efficiency [58]. Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to decline by 0.1% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 13.6% in 2026 and 14.0% in 2027 [13][12]. - **Net Profit**: Projected net profit for 2025 is CNY 2,634 million, with a gradual increase to CNY 3,482 million by 2027 [12][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Estimated ROE for 2025-26 is around 15.2%, higher than the historical average of 12.7% [6][47]. Conclusion Great Star is positioned to benefit from a recovering US housing market and strong order momentum, despite facing challenges in consumption and profitability. The company's strategic initiatives and insider confidence suggest a positive outlook, warranting a Buy rating with an increased target price.

Group 1 - The company's actual controller, Chairman Qiu Jianping, has continuously increased his shareholding by 400,000 shares from December 1 to 4, bringing his total holdings to 46.4152 million shares, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future development [1] - The company has established 23 production bases globally, including 11 in China, 6 in Europe, 3 in the United States, and 3 in Southeast Asia, enhancing its ability to respond quickly to market demands and deliver large orders [1] - The electric tools business is entering a harvest period, achieving a revenue of 741 million yuan by 1H2025, with a year-on-year growth of 56.03%, accounting for 10.56% of total revenue, indicating a continuous increase in business weight and potential as a core growth driver [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate sector during the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, alongside its strong competitive position and imminent fundamental improvements [2] - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 15.03 billion, 18.08 billion, and 21.55 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.64 billion, 3.20 billion, and 3.81 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.2, 13.3, and 11.2 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods export chain is expected to face multiple external disturbances in 2025, leading to structural differentiation in market conditions, with motorcycles and ATVs remaining strong while other segments see declining growth rates [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The consumer goods export chain encompasses a wide range of industries with varying growth drivers, resulting in a bottom-up driven market where individual stock logic is relatively independent, and sector effects are weak [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue and net profit growth rates for export chain companies showed a declining trend, primarily due to tariff impacts and early inventory stocking by overseas clients [2]. - Despite the overall decline, certain segments like motorcycles and ATVs continue to outperform expectations, leading to sustained high growth in related companies' performance and stock prices [2]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in 2026, with easing tariff issues and low freight costs, alongside the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of interest rate cuts, which will stimulate U.S. consumer and investment activities [3]. - The recovery of the U.S. real estate cycle is anticipated to benefit the tool industry, with continued attention recommended for the bathroom pump sector and domestic motorcycle exports [3]. Group 3: Tool Industry - Tool demand is directly correlated with the real estate industry's conditions, which are highly sensitive to mortgage rates currently suppressed by high rates, placing the real estate cycle at its lowest since 1999 [4]. - As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts take effect, mortgage rates are expected to decline, leading to a recovery in new and existing home sales, which will subsequently drive tool demand [4]. Group 4: Plastic Bathroom Pump Industry - The plastic bathroom pump sector, used in facilities like massage bathtubs and swimming pools, sees strong demand in Europe and North America [5]. - This sector is linked to new construction projects and also benefits from upgrades in existing facilities, with demand likely to increase following interest rate cuts [5]. Group 5: Motorcycle Industry - The global motorcycle market is vast and resilient, with 2023 sales reaching 54.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a market size of $139.6 billion, up 2.72% year-on-year [6]. - The competitive landscape features Japanese brands leading, Indian brands in the second tier, and Chinese brands breaking through, while European and American brands maintain a presence in high-end segments [6]. - Domestic brands are gradually moving away from reliance on low-end commuter models, shifting towards high-value segments like large displacement and electric motorcycles, aiming to increase market share in Europe and the U.S. [6]. - Key recommendations include companies like Juxing Technology (hand tools + power tools) and Quan Feng Holdings (power tools + garden tools), with additional attention suggested for Lingxiao Pump Industry, Chunfeng Power (small and mid-cap), Longxin General (automotive), and Taotao Industry (automotive & home appliances) [6].

格隆汇12月18日丨巨星科技(002444.SZ)公布，公司董事会于近日收到内部审计部负责人方磊先生递交 的辞呈。方磊先生因个人原因，申请辞去内部审计部负责人职务，辞职后方磊先生将不在公司担任其他 任何职务。 ...

巨星科技12月18日公告，公司董事会近日收到内部审计部负责人方磊的辞呈，方磊因个人原因申请辞去 该职务，辞职后不再担任公司其他任何职务。根据相关规定，方磊的辞职申请自送达董事会之日起生 效，公司将尽快完成内部审计部负责人的聘任工作。 ...

杭州巨星科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于近日收到内部审 计部负责人方磊先生递交的辞呈。方磊先生因个人原因，申请辞去内部审计部负 责人职务，辞职后方磊先生将不在公司担任其他任何职务。 根据《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定，方磊先生的辞职申请自送达董 事会之日起生效，公司将按照法律、法规的相关规定，尽快完成内部审计部负责 人的聘任工作。 方磊先生在任职期间勤勉尽责，公司及董事会对方磊先生为公司发展所做出 的贡献表示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 证券代码：002444 证券简称：巨星科技 公告编号：2025-052 杭州巨星科技股份有限公司董事会 二○二五年十二月十九日 杭州巨星科技股份有限公司 关于内部审计部负责人辞职的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Fang Lei has resigned from his position as the head of the internal audit department at Giant Star Technology due to personal reasons, and he will not hold any other position in the company after his resignation [1] - For the first half of 2025, Giant Star Technology's revenue composition shows that tools and hardware account for 99.53% of the total revenue, while other businesses contribute only 0.47% [1] - As of the time of reporting, Giant Star Technology has a market capitalization of 43.1 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Juxing Technology is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.38% in revenue from 2017 to 2024, significantly outpacing the industry average [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth and Market Position - Juxing Technology's overseas revenue consistently accounts for over 90%, primarily benefiting from the recovery of the U.S. tool industry [1] - The company is expanding its channels and product categories, which is expected to enable it to continue achieving growth rates above the industry average [1] Group 2: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Juxing Technology provides a one-stop supply chain service to Fortune 500 supermarkets in Europe and the U.S., covering both traditional offline supermarkets and online platforms [1] - The company has maintained a long-term partnership with Amazon, enhancing its online presence [1] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to the prolonged impact of tariffs on this year's performance, the company has adjusted its earnings forecast downward for the current year but raised projections for the following years [1] - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17x for this year, 13x for next year, and 10.5x for the year after, indicating a relatively low valuation level [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "strongly recommended" [1]