人民币加速升值，3 月如何布局 西部研究月度金股报告系列（2026 年 3 月） 核心结论 1、2026 中国有望回归 2019 "价值投资元年" （1）2018 年中国正式步入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此 A 股孕育出了 2019-22 年"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥 有稳定现金流的消费（茅指数）和制造（宁组合）得到系统性重估。 （2）《人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机》提示：美联储降息后人民币回归长 期升值趋势，正驱动跨境资本加速回流。中国的制造和消费行业将再次拥有 大量稳定的现金流，也将重获"价值投资者"的青睐。 2、巴菲特"价值投资"的基础，是稳定现金流的"大 DCF 资产" 1945 年开始美国正式进入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此美股孕育出了巴菲特"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥有稳定 现金流且 CAPEX 较低的"大 DCF 资产"。 策略月报 巴菲特"价值投资"的理念是以合理价格买入现金流充沛的优质公司。上世 纪 60 年代以来，巴菲特重仓的美国运通/华盛顿邮报/可口可乐/苹果等公司， 都是现金流充裕且 CAPEX 较低的 ...

工具行业专题：周期共振，成长可期 20260226 摘要 工具行业的市场空间与细分结构如何，区域分布对行业经营特征意味着什么？ 工具市场规模达千亿美元级别，增速与 GDP 相关，稳态下保持中个位数 增长。美国是最大单一市场，重点公司在美洲市场营收占比普遍超 60%，行业对美国市场敞口较高。 美国地产周期与工具需求高度相关。当前房贷利率高企，成屋销售筑底， 但随降息推进，地产景气有望修复，进而驱动工具需求释放。预计 26 年美联储有望降息，地产周期复苏可期。 工具行业下游以线下渠道为主，受渠道商库存周期影响。24 年下半年渠 道去库已进入尾声，25 年渠道库存增速平稳，库销比企稳回落。预计 26 年有望迎来地产周期与渠道库存周期共振的复苏阶段。 创科实业已成为全球工具龙头，泉峰控股和巨星科技分别在 OPE 和手工 具品类位列全球第二，市场份额持续提升。各公司通过"内生+外延" 实现规模扩张，龙头企业更早完成 OBM 转型。 锂电化是行业趋势，电动工具渗透率已达 70%-80%，OPE 渗透率较低， 提升空间大。锂电化推动竞争要素转向电池平台通用化，创科实业和泉 峰控股在电池平台布局上具有先发优势。 Q&A 当前 ...

Group 1: China Ping An - The core strategy of China Ping An is "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care," which aims to create a new value growth pole through a "product + service" model, leading to long-term stable profit growth [3][4] - The report suggests that the current market valuation of China Ping An is low, with a PEV of 0.75, and recommends a target market value of 1.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 88.53 yuan per share [3][4] - The aging population in China and the increasing importance of commercial health insurance in medical payments are expected to enhance the effectiveness of the "product + service" model, positioning it as a new growth driver for the company [3][4] Group 2: Steel Research High Temperature Alloy - Steel Research High Temperature Alloy is a leading company in the high-temperature alloy sector, benefiting from strong demand in the aerospace industry and the trend towards technological self-sufficiency [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 132 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 172 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the resilience of the high-temperature alloy industry, driven by increasing defense budgets and the upgrade of aerospace equipment, which supports long-term demand [6][7] Group 3: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is recognized for its strong innovation capabilities, with a focus on oncology and chronic disease treatment pipelines, and has established an international business development ecosystem [8][9] - The company has entered a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs, which is expected to generate significant revenue potential [9][10] - The report predicts EPS growth of 48%, 36%, and -7% for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 16.58 HKD per share [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with only 19% of cities showing signs of bottoming out as of Q4 2025 [18][19] - New home prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-hand home prices are generally declining [19][20] - The report indicates that the inventory clearance cycle is extending, with first-tier cities reaching 19-28 months and some second-tier cities exceeding 38 months [20] Group 5: Robotics and Automation - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [21][22] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.14, 1.47, and 1.83 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 147.00 yuan per share [21][22] - The company is leveraging its expertise in micro-drive systems to enhance its competitive position in the robotics market [22][23] Group 6: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in provinces like Qinghai [36][37] - The report suggests that the demand for energy storage systems and batteries will increase, recommending several key stocks in this sector [36][37] - The expected growth rate for energy storage demand in 2026 is projected to be around 50% [38]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with total exports reaching a historical high, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, despite a complex external environment [1][57] - China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, marking a significant increase of 19.8% year-on-year [1][57] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.64 percentage points to GDP growth, the second-highest level since 2007, only behind 2021 [3] Group 2 - The diversification of external demand has strengthened, with emerging markets compensating for the decline in exports to the US, which fell by 19.79% year-on-year [6] - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East saw significant growth rates of 25.9%, 13.64%, and 9.7% respectively, contributing positively to the overall export scale [6] - The share of US exports in China's total exports decreased by 3.53 percentage points to 11.15% [6] Group 3 - The product structure of China's foreign trade is shifting towards higher value chains, with high-end products like electrical machinery, machinery, automobiles, and ships being the main export drivers [8] - Traditional light industrial products such as furniture and toys have seen a decline in export scale due to tariff friction and industrial chain relocation [8] Group 4 - The restructuring of global supply chains is creating significant opportunities for Chinese companies, with a notable increase in the number of Chinese enterprises establishing production capacities abroad, reaching 229 in 2025, nearly doubling from 2024 [18] - ASEAN, Mexico, and India are the primary destinations for Chinese production capacity outflows, with ASEAN covering a wide range of industries [18] Group 5 - The AI expansion cycle is a core focus in the Chinese capital market, with significant growth expected in AI computing hardware, supported by macro investment scales and healthy balance sheets of major tech companies [29][30] - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers is projected to increase significantly, reflecting strong demand for AI computing [35] Group 6 - Cultural and technological value output is becoming a major trend for Chinese enterprises going abroad, with significant growth in IP exports and innovative products in sectors like gaming and new dining [39][41] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is increasingly integrated into the global supply chain, with more products commercialized in the US and Europe [41] Group 7 - Key sectors with strong overseas expansion opportunities in 2026 include new energy (batteries, grid equipment), machinery, TMT (technology, media, telecommunications), and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] - The gaming industry is also highlighted for its potential, with significant overseas revenue growth expected [49]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Juxing Technology (002444) has announced an international patent application for a device named "Clamp," with the application number PCT/CN2025/113396, and the international publication date set for February 12, 2026 [1] - Juxing Technology has filed a total of 7 international patent applications this year, representing a 600% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company invested 175 million yuan in research and development, which is a year-on-year increase of 10.57% [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Giant Star Technology Company Overview - Giant Star Technology operates under its own brand (GoPro) and through acquisitions (List, Shop Vac) to enhance its brand matrix, expanding into laser measuring instruments and storage cabinets, with a primary focus on hand tools, power tools, and industrial tools [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth from 2.16 billion to nearly 14.8 billion from 2011 to 2024, with an annualized growth rate of approximately 16% [2][4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 11.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.155 billion, up 11.35% [5] - Gross margin fluctuated between 25% and 33% due to various factors including product mix and raw material costs [4] Product Segmentation - In the first half of 2023 to 2025, hand tools accounted for over 65% of revenue with a gross margin of around 32% [6] - Power tools' revenue share increased from 9.64% in 2023 to 10.56% in the first half of 2025, with gross margin rising from 20% to nearly 29% [6] - Industrial tools maintained a revenue share of about 23% with a stable gross margin of around 35% [6] Geographic Performance - Overseas revenue consistently accounted for over 90% from 2020 to the first half of 2025 [7] - Revenue from the Americas decreased from over 71% to around 65%, while European market share increased from 18.7% to 25.66%, with European gross margins generally exceeding 33% [7] Competitive Advantages - The company boasts a strong R&D team, launching approximately 2,000 new products annually and expanding product categories through acquisitions [8] - Active capacity expansion in Southeast Asia aims to meet 70%-80% of U.S. market demand [8] - Key supplier relationships with major retailers such as Home Depot, Lowe's, and Walmart enhance market presence [8] Market Trends - The DIY culture in Europe and the U.S. drives demand for various tool products, supporting continuous global market growth [10] - The global tools market is projected to grow from $62.2 billion in 2024 to $67.3 billion in 2026, with an annual growth rate of about 4% [10] - The power tools segment is expected to grow at a rate of 5.5% due to their convenience and ease of use across multiple industries [10] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 15.058 billion, 18.587 billion, and 21.574 billion respectively, with net profits of 2.561 billion, 3.149 billion, and 3.718 billion [11] - The recovery of the U.S. real estate market is anticipated to boost demand, alongside the company's strengths in capacity planning, channel development, and brand cultivation, leading to a "buy" rating [11]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report on Juxing Technology (002444.SZ) indicates a positive outlook with a "Buy" rating, driven by a recovery in cycles including interest rate cuts, inventory adjustments, and product cycles [1][4][5]. Group 2: Industry Overview - The global market for hand tools is approximately $100 billion, with demand closely linked to home renovation investments. The market growth rate is stable, with around 80% of demand concentrated in Europe and North America, while supply is primarily in Asia [4]. - The tool industry is characterized by a high concentration of distributors, with the top four accounting for over 70% of the market [4]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Juxing Technology specializes in hand tools, electric tools, and industrial tools, with a significant export focus. In 2024, the Americas are expected to account for 63.44% of the company's revenue [4]. - The company has outperformed the industry and is now the leading hand tool manufacturer in Asia, holding the second-largest global market share. Its competitive advantages include channel expansion, brand acquisitions, product innovation, and a global production layout [4][5]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Juxing Technology are estimated at 15.506 billion, 18.480 billion, and 22.290 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 19.2%, and 20.6%. Net profit is projected to be 2.587 billion, 2.851 billion, and 3.451 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.3%, 10.2%, and 21.0% [6]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 15X, compared to an average of 16X for comparable companies, suggesting it has room for growth. The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 51.3 billion yuan, indicating an upside potential of approximately 18% from the current price [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Giant Star Technology is a leading company in China's hand tools industry and one of the top players globally in the tools sector [1] - The demand in the tools industry is on the rise due to the confluence of the US interest rate cut cycle and the inventory replenishment cycle [1] - The company operates 23 manufacturing bases across China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, the US, and Europe, establishing a "global procurement, global manufacturing, global distribution" capability [1] Group 2 - Southeast Asia's production capacity is continuously expanding to optimize the supply chain to the US, mitigate risks from international tariff fluctuations, and enhance overall cost competitiveness [1] - The effectiveness of the company's proprietary brand strategy is notable, with brands such as WORKPRO, DURATECH, and EverBrite performing well in both e-commerce and offline markets, significantly improving international competitiveness and gross margins [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]