百润股份：高基数下业绩承压，下半年有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.628 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [4] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 826 million yuan, a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year [4] - The company expects revenue growth of 1.7%, 13.3%, and 13.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit projections of 800 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.07 billion yuan for the same years [4] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 71.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s revenue from pre-mixed drinks declined by 8.3% in Q2 2024, while other business segments saw a growth of 0.3% [4] - The company’s offline, digital retail, and ready-to-drink channels generated revenues of 1.43 billion yuan, 160 million yuan, and 20 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7.0%, -35.7%, and -42.7% [4] - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2024 was 28.2%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.32 billion yuan in 2024, 3.76 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.27 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 796 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.074 billion yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times [4]