塔牌集团2024年半年报点评：超预期明确高分红，区域格局优势仍凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.976 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 31.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 226 million yuan, down 53.4% year-on-year, which aligns with previous performance expectations [1][2]. - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, which is expected to be at least 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2]. - The demand remains weak, particularly in the Guangdong region, exacerbated by continuous rainfall affecting construction activities, leading to a significant decline in cement and clinker sales [1][2]. - The pricing and profitability are under pressure, but there is potential for recovery in the second half of 2024 as market conditions improve [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.169 billion yuan, down 6.6% from 2023, with net profit expected to be 586 million yuan, a decrease of 20.9% [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 0.49 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively [1][3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 4.9% in 2024, increasing to 6.8% by 2026 [3][9]. Market and Pricing Trends - The average price of cement and clinker in the first half of 2024 is estimated to be around 249 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of approximately 54 yuan per ton [1][2]. - The company anticipates a stabilization of cement prices in the third quarter of 2024, with potential increases in the fourth quarter as demand recovers [1][2].