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科伦博泰生物-B：2024年中报点评：授权收入超预期，SKB264国内获批在即，双抗ADC获默沙东行权
06990SKB BIO(06990) 东吴证券·2024-08-20 23:41

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 H1 revenue reached 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, with Merck milestone payments contributing 640 million yuan [2] - Net profit for H1 2024 was 310 million yuan, marking a temporary profitability [2] - Cash and financial assets totaled 2.89 billion yuan, indicating sufficient capital reserves [2] - SKB264, the first domestic Trop2 ADC, is expected to be approved in China in H2 2024 or H1 2025, with potential inclusion in next year's medical insurance negotiations [3] - Multiple products, including A166 (HER2 ADC), SKB315 (CLDN 18.2 ADC), and SKB410 (Nectin-4 ADC), are progressing well and expected to enter the commercialization phase [3] - Merck exercised its option for the global rights (excluding Greater China) of the bispecific ADC product SKB571, paying a 37.5millionupfrontfeewithadditionaldevelopmentandsalesmilestones[3]FinancialPerformanceandForecasts−Revenuefor2024E,2025E,and2026Eisforecastedat1.602billionyuan,1.447billionyuan,and2.003billionyuan,respectively[2]−Netprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyfor2024E,2025E,and2026Eisprojectedat−376.31millionyuan,−921.17millionyuan,and−795.16millionyuan,respectively[2]−EPSfor2024E,2025E,and2026Eisestimatedat−1.69yuan,−4.13yuan,and−3.57yuan,respectively[2]−Operatingcashflowfor2024Eisforecastedat2.197billionyuan,whileinvestmentandfinancingcashflowsareexpectedtobe15.21millionyuanand689.50millionyuan,respectively[9]ProductPipelineandClinicalProgress−SKB264hasinitiated10globalPhase3clinicaltrialsoverseas,coveringmultipleindicationsinlungcancer,breastcancer,endometrialcancer,cervicalcancer,andgastroesophagealadenocarcinoma[3]−A166(HER2ADC)hascompletedNDAsubmissionforitsfirstindication(HER2+BC,3L+)andisexpectedtobelaunchedinH22024orH12025[3]−SKB571,abispecificADCtargetinglungcancerandgastrointestinaltumors,isexpectedtosubmitanINDapplicationsoon[3]ValuationandMarketData−TheclosingpriceasofthereportdatewasHK37.5 million upfront fee with additional development and sales milestones [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at 1.602 billion yuan, 1.447 billion yuan, and 2.003 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at -376.31 million yuan, -921.17 million yuan, and -795.16 million yuan, respectively [2] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is estimated at -1.69 yuan, -4.13 yuan, and -3.57 yuan, respectively [2] - Operating cash flow for 2024E is forecasted at 2.197 billion yuan, while investment and financing cash flows are expected to be 15.21 million yuan and 689.50 million yuan, respectively [9] Product Pipeline and Clinical Progress - SKB264 has initiated 10 global Phase 3 clinical trials overseas, covering multiple indications in lung cancer, breast cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma [3] - A166 (HER2 ADC) has completed NDA submission for its first indication (HER2+ BC, 3L+) and is expected to be launched in H2 2024 or H1 2025 [3] - SKB571, a bispecific ADC targeting lung cancer and gastrointestinal tumors, is expected to submit an IND application soon [3] Valuation and Market Data - The closing price as of the report date was HK169.40, with a 52-week range of HK62.00toHK62.00 to HK195.00 [5] - The P/B ratio is 11.76x, and the market capitalization is HK$22.07 billion [5] - The company's ROE for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at -19.06%, -85.82%, and -266.03%, respectively [10] Platform and Strategic Developments - The OptiDC platform's value is further validated by Merck's exercise of the option for SKB571, highlighting the company's innovative capabilities in ADC development [3] - The company is transitioning into a commercialization phase with multiple products nearing market entry, supported by a robust pipeline and strategic partnerships [3]