Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][9][15] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 15.62 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%. The second quarter saw a business volume of 8.45 billion pieces, up 10.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's market share decreased from 21.6% to 19.6% year-on-year in Q2, as ZTO prioritized revenue quality over volume, leading to slower growth compared to the industry average [2][3] - Despite a decline in market share, ZTO's revenue quality improved, with Q2 single-ticket revenue slightly increasing to 1.24 CNY from 1.23 CNY year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality service [2][3] - The report anticipates a business volume growth rate of at least 18% in the second half of the year to meet the annual guidance of 15-18% growth [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 5.03 billion CNY, up 13.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a 673 million CNY impairment charge on equity investments [2][3] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.38 billion CNY, 11.72 billion CNY, and 13.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9X, 10.3X, and 9.0X [3][7] - The company maintains a balanced strategy of enhancing service quality, business scale, and profitability, which has led to a strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction [3][7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2, ZTO's single-ticket cost was 0.82 CNY, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with transportation costs decreasing by 6.8% to 0.39 CNY, while sorting costs rose by 4.6% to 0.26 CNY [2][3] - The report indicates that while single-ticket costs have stabilized, there is potential for further cost reduction as new equipment utilization increases with growing business volume [3][8]
中通快递-W：持续提升收入质量，单票盈利表现优异