KUAISHOU(01024) 光大证券·2024-08-27 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) with a target price of 60.3 HKD, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][25]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q2 2024 results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching 31 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and adjusted net profit of 4.68 billion RMB, surpassing the consensus estimate [2][10]. - The company's gross margin improved to 55.3%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [11][20]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) showed growth, with DAU at 395 million, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, and MAU at 692 million, a 2.7% increase [14][15]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was 310 billion RMB, with online marketing revenue at 175 billion RMB (up 22.1%), live streaming revenue at 93 billion RMB (down 6.7%), and other services (mainly e-commerce) revenue at 42 billion RMB (up 21.3%) [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was 46.8 billion RMB, a 74% increase from 26.9 billion RMB in Q2 2023 [11][20]. - The company’s domestic operating profit reached 45 billion RMB, a 48% year-on-year increase, while overseas losses narrowed to 2.8 billion RMB [13][20]. Platform Ecosystem - Kuaishou's DAU growth was driven by a focus on high-quality growth strategies, with average daily usage time per DAU reaching 122 minutes, a 4.1% increase year-on-year [14][15]. - The platform has introduced innovative content, such as the first AIGC original fantasy micro-drama, which garnered over 50 million views within two weeks [14][15]. Commercialization - Online marketing revenue grew significantly, driven by external marketing services, which saw a substantial increase, particularly in media and local life sectors [16][20]. - E-commerce GMV reached 305.3 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase, although it fell short of market expectations [17][20]. - Live streaming revenue declined, but new growth points were identified through the "Live+" model, enhancing user engagement and content quality [19][20]. Valuation and Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 172.8 billion RMB, 236.1 billion RMB, and 302.3 billion RMB, respectively [20][21]. - The report assigns valuation multiples of 0.6x PS for live streaming and online marketing, and 0.12x PSG for e-commerce, reflecting the competitive landscape and macroeconomic conditions [20][21].