LONGFOR GROUP(00960) 天风证券·2024-08-27 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2024 interim results show a 24 5% YoY decline in revenue to RMB 46 86 billion and a 27 2% YoY drop in net profit to RMB 5 87 billion [1] - The company's operating and service businesses contribute over 80% of core profits, indicating an optimized profit structure [1] - Longfor Group has significantly improved its debt structure, with short-term debt pressure gradually easing [1] - The company's multi-channel business model, particularly in operations and services, provides stable support to help navigate industry cycles [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 H1 revenue: RMB 46 86 billion (-24 5% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 net profit: RMB 5 87 billion (-27 2% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 core profit: RMB 4 75 billion [1] - Gross margin: 20 6% (-1 8pct YoY) [1] - Core profit margin: 10 1% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] Sales and Development - 2024 H1 contract sales: RMB 51 12 billion (-48 1% YoY) [1] - Sales area: 3 655 million sqm (-37 0% YoY) [1] - Development business revenue: RMB 33 76 billion (-32 3% YoY) [1] - Development business gross margin: 7 4% (-6 9pct YoY) [1] Debt and Liquidity - Total debt: RMB 187 42 billion (-9 5% YoY) [1] - Cash on hand: RMB 50 06 billion (-30 9% YoY) [1] - Net debt ratio: 56 7% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] - Cash to short-term debt ratio: 1 01x [1] Operations and Services - 2024 H1 rental income: RMB 6 61 billion (+4 4% YoY) [1] - Shopping mall occupancy rate: 96 0% (+0 6pct YoY) [1] - Rental housing occupancy rate: 95 6% (+1 9pct YoY) [1] - Property management area: 3 7 billion sqm (+5 7% YoY) [1] Financial Forecasts Income Statement (RMB million) - 2024E revenue: 171,699 75 (-5 0% YoY) [4] - 2025E revenue: 178,584 91 (+4 01% YoY) [4] - 2026E revenue: 184,978 25 (+3 58% YoY) [4] - 2024E net profit: 12,400 93 (-3 49% YoY) [4] - 2025E net profit: 13,298 27 (+7 24% YoY) [4] - 2026E net profit: 14,822 38 (+11 46% YoY) [4] Balance Sheet (RMB million) - 2024E total assets: 696,806 61 [4] - 2025E total assets: 700,620 54 [4] - 2026E total assets: 715,525 38 [4] - 2024E total liabilities: 463,812 13 [4] - 2025E total liabilities: 449,703 85 [4] - 2026E total liabilities: 424,632 43 [4] Key Ratios - 2024E gross margin: 16 92% [4] - 2025E gross margin: 17 92% [4] - 2026E gross margin: 18 92% [4] - 2024E net margin: 7 22% [4] - 2025E net margin: 7 45% [4] - 2026E net margin: 8 01% [4]