越秀地产：1H24毛利率承压影响业绩，管理层维持全年销售目标

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 1H24 was impacted by a decline in gross margin and impairment provisions, with revenue of 35.34 billion yuan (up 10.1% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion yuan (down 15.9%) [1] - The management has set an annual sales target of 147 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, despite the challenges faced in the first half of the year [1] - The company has a strong land reserve of 25.03 million square meters, with approximately 94% located in first and second-tier cities, providing a solid foundation for future sales [1] Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported a gross margin of 13.7% (down 4.0 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 5.2% (down 1.6 percentage points) [1] - The company’s total debt as of the end of the period was 110.24 billion yuan (up 10.4%), with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.53 times [1] - The average financing cost decreased to 3.57% (down 0.41 percentage points) [1] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 55.4 billion yuan in 1H24 (down 33.7%), ranking 9th among the top 100 real estate companies in China, showing a slight improvement from the previous year [1] - As of July 2024, the company completed 41.1% of its annual sales target, indicating potential challenges in achieving the full-year goal [1] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company adopted a diversified land acquisition strategy, securing 12 plots of land with a total construction area of 1.722 million square meters, focusing on high-energy cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Hefei [1] - The management's commitment to maintaining the sales target despite market conditions reflects their confidence in the company's operational strategy and land reserves [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for the company, projecting revenues of 86.78 billion yuan, 92.70 billion yuan, and 99.27 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 3.04 billion yuan, 3.10 billion yuan, and 3.21 billion yuan for the same years [2][7]