Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's investment banking business is under significant pressure, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024. The report anticipates a recovery in market conditions [1][4] - The company reported a total revenue and other income of 14.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.228 billion yuan, down 37.4% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 32.064 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 9.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.158 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 16.22% [2][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.07 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.12 for 2024, 5.42 for 2025, and 4.64 for 2026 [2][4] Business Segment Performance - The company's fee-based income has significantly declined, with a 25% drop in commission and fee income to 5.462 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. The investment banking segment saw a drastic reduction in underwriting and sponsorship income, down 52% to 900 million yuan [3][4] - The brokerage business also faced challenges, with a 25% decrease in income to 2.3 billion yuan, attributed to a decline in average daily trading volumes in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] - Asset management income decreased by 8% to 1.5 billion yuan, influenced by a drop in management fee rates despite an increase in fund sizes [3] Long-term Outlook - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2024-2026, with net profits expected to be 5.158 billion yuan in 2024, 6.770 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.919 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a recovery in growth rates in subsequent years [4] - The company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in investment banking and wealth management once market activity and conditions improve [4]
中金公司：2024年中报点评：投行业务承压显著，静待市场景气度回升