VANKE(000002) 国泰君安·2024-08-31 11:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company, with a target price of 11.53 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [2] - The current price is 6.76 CNY, indicating a significant upside potential [2] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was in line with expectations, with revenue of 142.78 billion CNY, down 28.9% YoY, and a net loss of 9.85 billion CNY, down 199.8% YoY [7] - Despite challenges, the company is supported by multiple state-owned enterprises in Shenzhen through various means such as bulk transactions, REITs subscriptions, and project collaborations [7] - The company is focusing on three main strategies: ensuring housing delivery, ensuring payment obligations, and transitioning to high-quality development [7] - The company is actively reducing inventory and optimizing its land reserves, with a total inventory value of 620.4 billion CNY, down 11.6% from the end of 2023 [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 343.83 billion CNY, down 26.2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 8.86 billion CNY, down 27.2% YoY [6] - The company's ROE is expected to decline to 3.4% in 2024E, down from 9.3% in 2022A [6] - The company's net debt ratio stands at 60.30%, with a current P/B ratio of 0.3 [4] Operational Highlights - The company's new construction starts in H1 2024 were 4.12 million square meters, achieving only 38.4% of the annual plan, compared to 71.5% in the same period last year [7] - Completed construction area in H1 2024 was 8.60 million square meters, achieving 39.0% of the annual plan, slightly below the 40.0% achieved in the same period last year [7] - The company added only 3 new land parcels in H1 2024, with an average land price of 3,944 CNY per square meter [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the real estate/finance sector, facing challenges such as declining settlement scale and gross margins, as well as significant impairment losses [6][7] - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and resource optimization, including converting commercial properties to residential use and resource swaps [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's current P/E ratio is 3.55, with a projected P/E of 9.10 for 2024E [6] - The company's P/B ratio is 0.33, with a target P/B of 0.53 based on the target price [7]