LZLJ(000568) 民生证券·2024-09-01 01:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000585 SZ) [1] Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16 905 billion yuan in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 15 84% Net profit attributable to parent company reached 8 028 billion yuan, up 13 22% YoY [1] - The company's liquor business showed both volume and price increases, with mid-to-high-end products contributing 90 35% of liquor revenue [1] - Advertising expenses increased significantly by 31 64% in H1 2024, impacting net profit margin [1] - The company is undergoing digital transformation and maintaining long-term development strategies [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q2 2024 revenue reached 7 716 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 10 51% [1] - Contract liabilities stood at 2 342 billion yuan at the end of H1 2024, up 21 11% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved to 88 57% in H1 2024, up 0 22 percentage points YoY [1] Product Breakdown - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reached 15 213 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 17 12% YoY increase [1] - Other liquor products generated 1 625 billion yuan in revenue, up 6 86% YoY [1] Channel Performance - Traditional channels accounted for 95 66% of liquor revenue in H1 2024 [1] - Emerging channels grew 32 83% YoY to 731 million yuan [1] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10 9% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit is projected to increase by 10 6% in 2024, followed by 9 8% and 10 1% growth in subsequent years [4] - PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 12x in 2024 to 10x in 2026 [4] Valuation - Current PE ratio stands at 12x based on 2024 earnings [1] - PB ratio is projected to decline from 3 7x in 2024 to 2 8x in 2026 [4] - EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 7 65x in 2024 to 6 47x in 2026 [4]