科华控股：全球涡轮增压壳体核心供应商，经营拐点显现

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global supplier of turbocharger housings, with improving operational quality and a significant recovery in profitability, as evidenced by a gross margin increase to 17.6% in 2023, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][16]. - The company has established stable partnerships with major turbocharger system manufacturers, maintaining a global market share of approximately 8% since 2018, which is higher than its A-share competitors [1][36]. - The global turbocharger system market is expected to remain resilient, with limited impact from the rise of electric vehicles, as hybrid vehicle sales are increasing significantly [1][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of turbocharger components, including turbine housings and intermediate housings, and has been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since January 2018 [1][12]. 2. Market Dynamics - The global turbocharger system market is showing resilience, with hybrid vehicle sales growing rapidly, while the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles has plateaued [1][23]. - In 2023, the total sales of hybrid vehicles in China, the US, and Europe reached 8.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41%, while the growth rate for pure electric vehicles was only 28% [1][23]. 3. Investment Highlights - The company has comprehensive coverage of major global turbocharger manufacturers, leveraging its scale and technological advantages to enhance market share [2][36]. - The high fixed cost structure of turbocharger housing production means that economies of scale will lead to more pronounced earnings elasticity as production capacity increases [2][41]. - Cash flow is entering a growth phase, with a continuous reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio, which decreased from a peak of 69% in 2021 to 61% in 2023 [5][47]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.06 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.91, and 1.06 yuan [5][51]. - The report anticipates stable revenue growth, with projected revenues of 28.53 billion, 31.14 billion, and 34.00 billion yuan for the same period [5][51].